Fangraphs has an article about how total payrolls are on pace to be below 2018 (which were below 2017). Ignoring what a huge issue this will be when the CBA runs out, I am interested in the graphic they had that showed Houston's current payroll as ~$10M below 2018 opening day. I don't know if the 2019 number includes players going to arbitration. But if it does you've got to think Houston has at least $20M to spend before opening day.
I dont mean to say we are far. One more big bat, whether it be DH or somewhere else is needed IMO. As far as our historic offense (2017) goes, many of those guys (Reddick, Gurriel for sure) will never repeat those numbers.
Rotation usually needs to put up ~950 innings in a season. I figure Houston just needs a scrub veteran to take ~15 starts (~80 IP) from April-June until Whitley is ready. 400 total innings from Verlander/Cole. 150 innings out of McHugh. 150 innings out of James. 100 innings out of Whitley. 70 spot start innings from Framber and the other young pitchers over the course of the season. Totally fine giving 15 starts to a guy who should sign cheap (Buchholz, Pomeranz, Anderson, Fister, Liriano, Santana, Karns, Hammel, Hellickson, Estrada, Shields). I’m assuming Gonzalez, Miley, and Keuchel are going to be overpaid.
Also seems like a Reddick for Cobb deal would make sense. They will be paid almost exactly the same over 2019-2020, Cobb has another year. Give Elias one of the lower level guys he likes, Orioles eat half his 2020 salary. Astros get: RHP Alex Cobb $7M Orioles get: OF Josh Reddick RHP Cristian Javier
I really want Carlos Gonzalez more than anyone that won’t break the bank on the free agent market. Astros could benefit from another LH Bat in the lineup especially with Reddick and Tucker’s names bounced around in trade talk. He could settle for a 1-2 yr deal. He’s bros with Altuve, could bounce back and hit 30 hr’s this year, even not I’d gladly take his production from last season. I think SP comes via trade and I think Sonny Gray, who’s been pushed out of the starting rotation of the Yanks is the deal with the smaller value of prospects shipped out. Contract is big, not Keuchel big but big. Yanks seem desperate too move him and don’t have a lot of leverage like Indians would with Kluber, etc. his numbers sucked in Yankees stadium but he still posted a 3.17 era on the road. Just never was a good fit on the Yankees. Brantley, CarGo, Chirinos & Diaz to me is a pretty big upgrade of Marwin, Gattis, McCann & Maldonado. Realmuto could still come as well. Final one CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve LF Brantley SS Correa DH C. Gonzalez 1B White C Chirinos RF Reddick C Stassi IF Gurriel IF Diaz OF Kemp/Marisnick/Tucker SP Verlander SP Cole SP Gray SP McHugh SP James RP Osuna RP Pressly RP Rondon RP Devo RP Peacock RP Valdez/C. Perez RP Harris unless they sign a FA or Whitley pushes McHugh/James to the pen.
Uncle Charlie, LMJ, and DK pitched 500 innings combined last season, and that is a huge amount to replace at their quality of out put of a combined 3.56 ERA. However the current pitching roster isn't that far off. But before you guys call me crazy for suggesting this possibility let me state that I would be very excited to land a TOR pitcher under team control via trade. I just fell the need to make a move for a TOR pitcher doesn't need to be overpaid for at the moment. Colin McHugh can be a very solid #3 that can eat innings. In 2015 he pitched over 200 innings and followed up the next season with 184 innings. Obviously he perfected his craft in the pen, hopefully he can return to the rotations and be better than ever and give the staff 200+ quality innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win 18-20 games. Brad Peacock in 2017 started 21 games and went 13-2 with 132 innings with a flat 3 ERA. He will be 31 in a few days and I see no reason why he couldn't make 30 starts and log 170 innings. He could win you 15 to 17 starts given the chance and health. That leaves 130 innings short of the 500 innings from the previous year. The best candidate on the current roster IMO to pull this off is the flaming throwing machine Josh James. The front office loves swing and miss stuff and this dude has it in spades. He started 24 games last season between minors and Astros (3 MLB starts and decent results) and totaled 137 innings last season. I'm am very excited to see what he an pull off as a #5 guy. If he can't handle it then there are options. Like calling up Forrest Whitley after he does his thing in the minors to delay the clock on his free agency. So if you have a starting pitch staff that looks like this with this offense and bullpen, there is no need to be wasteful with free agent money to sign just a guy or over pay for DK. Nor is there any rush to deal away team control prospects for potential salary crippling star that might fall off. To those that say without McHugh and Peacock the bullpen will be overused let me address that. The Astros need to replace McHugh and Peacock's 137 innings last season and at very nice results (2.69 ERA) . First of all the mid season trade for Osuna only pitched 22 innings for the Astros, he has routinely pitched at about 70 innings a season. So there is about 48 innings of quality relief work. *Note I don't count those 30 crappy inning from Giles, we can get those same results from any scrub. Second, we have the same situation of mid season trade in Ryan Pressly, he only pitched 23 innings for the Astros and he usually hit 70+ innings of very effective relief work. So there's another 47 roughly and this dude is lights out good. So where do they find the other 42 innings of quality relief work. I think Devo primarily since he is more proven. He only pitched 47 innings last season coming off his All-star year of 80 innings. I am pretty confident he could pitch 65+ innings of quality relief. Joe Smith missed some time and only gave the team 45 innings and I think it isn't going out on a limb penciling Joe down for 65+ innings of quality relief work. All that said I think the Astros lose Tony Sipp's left specialist role of 38 innings which he wash very effective last season. Maybe they can sign him at decent rate but if not Cional Perez or Framber Valdez will have no problem battling out that roster spot. Perez is the real reliever of the two and probably fills that role better but Framber might make it as a long relief/ spot starter anyway, he could put in 100 innings if need be. Once again I'm not against finding that TOR pitcher in trade but as you can see it isn't that the Astros are with out a plan on paper at the moment. Plus this doesn't even discuss the remaining talent that is on the farm which is ripe. pitch roster if 12 Velander Cole McHugh Peacock James Osuna Pressly Devo Rondon Smith Harris Perez/Valdez
I'm somewhat optimistic that Yuli can roughly repeat his 2017 performance if he can avoid having major surgery in spring training this year. Reddick I'm less hopeful for, though I wonder if he was dealing with some nagging injuries as well. His peak exit velocity dipped a fair bit last year, which really isn't typical of players that are just getting worse with age.
I think it's more that he can't pitch in Yankee Stadium. It's a really big market there, and you're naturally under a ton of pressure if you're a Yankee pitching at home, their fans really fill up the place. Some pitchers just can't handle it. I think a change in scenery will help him. As long as we can get a good deal and don't help the Stankees too much, I'm for it.
I saw $27M, 9M AAV, which is still good. I was surprised to see that he is already 33. This could either be a steal, or a contract that isn't looking pretty in a year and a half. For the Yankees, the cost doesn't matter, so it makes a ton of sense for them.
No issues with your general premise but I think banking on 200 innings from McHugh and 170 innings from Peacock is way overly optimistic. If Houston can’t find a SP they like from outside, I’m fine with moving both McHugh and Peacock into the rotation and expecting 250 total innings from them (with another 250 coming from James, Whitley, and the other young arms), but if they do that they will need to add at least one good reliever who can be counted on for 50+ quality, high leverage innings. Doesn’t have to be Kimbrel but outside of Cody Allen there aren’t a ton of reliable free agent relievers left. But there are enough arms with questions who have solid resumes that I’m sure Luhnow could patch something together. I still feel pretty confident that Luhnow will be able to acquire a SP that suits their needs.
Peacock, Giles, and McHugh only pitched ~20 high leverage innings. I expect Pressly and Osuna take about 15 of those. I expect Houston goes for a starter because a starter is likely a better pitcher than a reliever, and then use that starter as a reliever in the playoffs.
I like Karns, Pomeranz, and Liriano as guys who could start out in the rotation and move into the bullpen once Whitley is ready (and be in the playoff bullpen). Adam Warren is also a guy who could fit that role.
I agree it is optimistic,I disagree it's "overly optimistic. If Peacock got 30 starts he needs just to average 5 and 2/3rds. McHugh has done 200 before. Things never go as planned on paper, but that's how you wind up with someone like Alex Bregman and not Brady Aiken and a World Series trophy.
