Would love for them to sign a vet who can throw 180+ innings of even average ball, and then let 2 to 4 youngsters plus the 10-day DL take care of a rotation spot. See where you are in June and make changes/trades as needed. Verlander/Cole/McHuge/Blank/Youngsters
Question: how close to Spring Training do we need to get before FAs begin to crack and take short-term deals, waiting for the market to improve We WON'T be able to replicate our rotation from last year. There is no way we are going to run 5 starters ONLY out there for the better part of 4-5 months. At this point I'm more worried about the stress on the pen than on the myriad of AAA arms we can put into action. If we sign a FA pitcher, we may get more quality out of a cheap reliever.
We have to replace the innings. Maybe not the quality, agreed. A starter helps the pen stress problem as well.
A starter helps the pen stress problems if they are good enough to go 6+ innings. If we sign a true innings eater, he won't make it through more than 4-5 innings per outing, draining the pen. My disagreement with you isn't that we don't need SPs to aid the pen; I just think it is more likely that some combination of Valdez/James/Martin/Peacock/Armeneteros/Whitley has more of a positive impact on our club than a Fiers-type SP5.
It seems to me a starter that gives you 4-5 innings is 4-5 innings better than not having him or anyone at all.
When a guy only consistently gives you 4-5 innings, it drains a lot of extra innings from the pen. Unless we want to run weekly bullpen games, the goal is to find a starter than can give you consistent quality work.
Hot take...McHugh will pitch better in 2019 than Keuchel as a starter. One of James and Whitley will be a very good starter. Someone else will step up. Astros are going to win a lot of games. Starters going deep won't help as much as offense. Offense needs to beat up on teams such that pen doesn't have to give max effort every night. Need to reduce high leverage innings.
Your not understanding the context of my point. Sure, a 6 inning guy is better than a 4-5 inning one. But getting a 4-5 inning guy is better than not getting a new guy at all. If you dont get a new guy at all, then you have to make someone start that would otherwise be available for pen duty. And that guy may only go 4-5 innings as well.
Agree with this. But IMO, we have more work to do than we have for us to have that kind of offense. Were not there yet.
I don't care if Perez and Valdez get a lot of work. Much more concerned with Pressly, Harris, Devenski, and Rondon.
And what I'm saying is that the odds of our up-and-coming arms being more consistent and helpful to our team than a bottom-of-the-barrel innings eater is good. If we are going to add a SP I want it to be someone with upside. I DON'T want a Fiers/Fister pitcher that costs us wins.
??? Astros are only one season removed from a historic offense with six of the same guys. White and Brantley are improvements and Cheerios is a push offensively (though not as good a defender).
Those guys will pitch in high leverage situations and not as a bridge to high leverage relievers. Whether starter goes 4-5 effectively or 6-7 not so effectively, it shouldn't affect the high leverage guys much. I want low leverage guys to get work.
If the #4 and #5 starter regularly only pitches 5 innings or less, that increases the likelihood that the Astros carry a 13 man pitching staff ... from 95% to 100% .
There were 20 pitchers that averaged 6 innings or more last year and qualified for ERA. Basically BoR guys that can go 6-7 regularly suck and don't go as regularly 6-7 as people think. This means you might get 7-8 innings out of them one night, but a start later get 2 or 3 innings and have to pull them for performance. I'd much rather have a 5 inning guy like Peacock that can go 6 pitching on fumes with a good lead or when he's pitching really well than a box of chocolates guy like Fiers. The 6-7 BoR inning eaters only eat an out or two more per start than the effective 4-5 inning guys because they pulled more for bad performance more often.
