Assuming Devenski, Correa, and Cole all win their arbitration cases, Houston is at ~$149.3M in player salaries for their projected opening day 25 man roster; adding McCullers gets them to $153.4M. My understanding is that they can get to about $180M before reaching the luxury tax threshold (since the $200M+ threshold includes other expenses like benefits etc.), so I think Houston has about $20M to spend this offseason and still have $5-10M to play with at the deadline. Which means they could probably afford to bring Keuchel back. But more likely they add somebody like Pomeranz or Miley for ~$8M and stay engaged on Realmuto, plus maybe a few million for NRI/fringy relievers.
Carlos Correa and the #Astros are $750,000 apart: $5 million and $4.25 million The #Astros and Chris Devenski are just $250k apart; $1.65 million and $1.4 million Gerrit Cole, who had one more year before free agency, filed for $13.5 million and #Astros at $11.425 million The #Astros will also pay Collin McHugh $5.8 million
I think it’s much more likely that we add via a trade. Not a lot in FA that suits our budget and improves the roster.
Not worried about Bregman. Only moderately worried about Altuve... his bat should be fine but probably won’t be the same on the base path. Concerned about Correa. Back issues... no surgery and wasn’t a big leaguer post injury last year. No reasonable explanation given other than restricted movement.
Correa had a good showing against the Red Sox. Back injuries are scary but it’s possible he never experiences that again. He’s certainly an unknown as it stands.
Looks like it's down to us, Braves, Rays, and maybe the Dodgers and Reds. Reds should be fine with Barnhart. Dodgers would be smart to keep their prospects and wait for Ruiz and Smith (younger and more control) next year. Rays I don't think will be serious contenders having to deal with both NYY and BOS, and Zunino is better than anyone we or ATL has so I don't think they're a good suiter either. Probably will come down to how much of the farm Atlanta wants to give to a rival. Hope we get him.
Dodgers Braves and Astros should be the only ones in the mix. It’ll just come down to who caves. Rays won’t get fair value for Zunino. Reds aren’t ready to compete (especially in that stacked NL Central). If Houston gets him without giving up Tucker/Whitley/James/Alvarez, they will have won the offseason.
