There seems to be this idea that prospects are binary - All-Star or bust. But that's a rather limited way to view it. If Kyle Tucker is *only* a 2-WAR player (so... essentially, Tony Kemp-like), as we saw this year, that has value, more so at Tucker's cost, which is minimal. If he's a 3+ WAR player - which is pretty good but probably below expectations, based on his pedigree - then you're trading away tens of millions of dollars worth of value. Six years of 18 WAR baseball is worth ~$144MM. Would you trade `$144MM for... ~$64MM (which is what a Tucker-for-Realmuto deal would look like). Before answering that, look at the Astros' next two years: Verlander, Cole, Springer, Reddick, Brantley are all coming available + 2 years of arbitration for Correa and 1 for Bregman. The Astros are staring down a financial bloodbath and they are going to need cheap, cost-controlled players like Tucker to offset either raises or losses. To deal that for *another* player to add to that list is risky, especially when you consider the Astros won 103 games last year with Max Stassi and Martin Maldonado getting a lot of PAs. I'm not saying they shouldn't do it (I'm torn) - but we need to understand that there are many levels of value in baseball.
Scouts are not good enough to determine the difference between a guy that will end up having a career like Reddick and one that ends up like Bregman or Correa. If the expectation of Tucker is that he's a Reddick, which I agree with, that's basically about as good a prospect valuation a player can have outside of being an AROD.
I'm not against trading Tucker. I would just prefer a top of the rotation starter over a catcher. Our offense is good enough without an elite offensive catcher. Our pitching is the bigger question mark in my opinion.
The Astros' Major League comp on George Springer was Preston Wilson... This idea the Astros employ soothsaying baseball savants is a tad overblown. They make mistakes a lot.
Scouting has changed quite a bit over the last handful of years. That coupled with the sheer volume of information that can be tabulated gives you more information than teams had in the past. Having said that, you are right, the ceiling is very much a crap shoot. I will say that I am always leery of top prospects that are dealt by good clubs..... when I say top, I mean top 5-10 in baseball. No one knows more about a heavily scouted and touted player than the team that has raised him. I remember when the Red Sox dealt Moncada for Sale. The Red Sox had some indications about his approach and personality.
From an offensive perspective alone, I get that. However, take defense, pitch framing and relationships with our pitchers into account, and I think Realmuto may be more significant than offensive stats alone.
No one has perfect recognition, but not all organizations or scouts are equal. Also the comp to Preston Wilson isn't really all that radical. Springer has cut down on his strikeouts, that is the only difference production-wise between the two. Their career slugging percentage is exactly the same. George has a higher on base percentage. If you take out the last two seasons of Wilson's career, where his on base percentage was awful, their career numbers are very close together.
Depends on how good you think Tucker is going to be. I think he's going to be a really good player, but not the kind of guy that you dont trade for an all star catcher. It looks to me like they value Alvarez more than they do Tucker. BTW, trading Tucker doesn't mean you cant trade for cost controlled players two or three years from now if payroll is going to be an issue.
I would rather have a starter under contract for 3 seasons over Realmuto as well. However, if the Astros make this deal (I still haven't had anyone say it is close) I will trust Luhnow.
Yep, Springer has been very clutch but Wilson is a very good comp for Springer. People try to make Springer seem like he's a god, when in reality he's a more clutch Wilson.
This really depends on how ready you think Whitley and James are. If Luhnow trades for Realmuto then it's a sign that he thinks Whitley/James Martin etc... are ready to contribute to the MLB roster.
I agree with you that prospects are not binary. Developing guys that hit 6th or 7th in the line up or are #3-4 starters are quite valuable in this current arbitration environment. Having said that, there is a really good chance that the Astros are rebuilding 2-3 years down the line, regardless of whether Tucker is gone or providing 2.5-4 WAR production. Adding Realmuto could be the difference between a ALCS birth and a WS title. Not to mention that the Astros will offer him the QO and get a draft pick if they do not resign him.
Agreed, the only other possibility is that Luhnow thinks he can deal for a starter at the deadline and can do so without needing Tucker as a trade piece.
I was curious about this... both guys were rookies in their age 24 seasons. Preston Wilson vs. Springer through age 28 (e.g., their first 5 years). Wilson - Springer G: 729-622 AB: 2665-2419 R: 405-434 RBI: 469-330 HR: 139-121 Ks: 729-634 BA: .269-.265 OBP: .337-.356 SLG: .491-.468 OPS: .828-.824 Wilson did show a more prolific power/run-producing profile (partially driven by Springer leading off for much of his career).
The Astros have tried to get Greinke since the season ended. They have had more discussions with the Diamondbacks than anyone else in baseball over the last two months.
