Ok maybe that's reasonable. So how many years before this management team is held responsible for the state of the organization (major league on down)? How long before it stops being Purpura and the 06 Astros fault? For drafting is the bar Johnson and Norris (which I assume to represent the horrible drafting under Purpura)?
I thought the Astros were keeping 12 pitchers. Here are my 12: Bretty Myers Wandy Rodriguez J.A. Happ Bud Norris Jordan Lyles Brandon Lyon Wilton Lopez Henry Villar Mark Melancon Aneury Rodriguez Ryan Rowland-Smith Nelson Figueroa I got Lyles winning the 5th spot in the rotation. Jeff Fulchino and Enerio Del Rosario both who have had good springs just missed out. Del Rosario hopefully has options left. Rowland-Smith makes the bullpen as the situational lefty, as his fall from grace continues.
Johnson and Norris is the total of the last three years of drafting by the previous regime with MLB potential. No MLB prospects left as far as I can tell from previous regime is sickening. I think 5-6 years is probably a earliest time to judge drafting. Castro and Lyles are ahead of the game already being at or knocking on MLB door. Sucks Castro got hurt. Astros drafting appears to have gotten much better as it appears Heck's first year at least matches the last three under previous management. I can't say if this is absolutely good as I don't follow every team, but it is appreciably better than the last regime.
1-2 or more years I'd say. Once the last vestiges of the Pup reign are gone and the system is all Heck draftee's it falls in Heck. Our AAA club still only has 1-2 even reasonable prospects right now years after Pup left because the club had nothing even at A single when he left. I conservatively predict that with all-Heck players in the system, it'll at worst be league average. Which after Pup's clusterf**k I'm totally fine with. With the current ownership/management status I don't think the Astros will ever make the bold moves in drafting and player development that teams like Tampa Bay and Atlanta consistently do (or KC just recently pulled off).
The Astros Bullpen Makeup They list a bunch of options with the most likely being Brett Myers Wandy Rodriguez J.A. Happ Bud Norris Nelson Figueroa Brandon Lyon (closer) Wilton Lopez (setup) Ryan Rowland-Smith (situational left) Fernando Abad (situational left) Aneury Rodriguez (long relief) Henry Villar Jeff Fulchino
you can be sure that if Lyles dominates AAA and Figueroa struggles at all, he will get the hook afte maybe 6 weeks. maybe even 4
If that's the case, it will be a situation not unlike the ones with Pence and Castro. Give them some extra time to keep the innings coming and confidence high and then bring them up. It's a strategy that I completely approve of. Even if they wanted Lyles to win the job, I'd still want them to give him a little extra time at AAA.
And put off free agency for one extra year, don't act like thats not the major reason the astros keep doing this.
The only reason the Astros sent him down is because the writer of wrongs said he should stay. It's an easy decision as the writer of wrongs is always wrong. Granted, it can cause a team to second guess their decision when the writer of wrongs flip flops.
This and another year of before arbitration begins are the two main reasons Lyles will be starting at AAA this season. He had the best camp of the contenders and the most upside but the rotation is strong enough to not need him right now. I would have preferred Figs as the long relief guy and someone like Rodriguez getting the nod, but ultimately I don't see Figs being in that spot all year long. Two guys that MUST be in the bullpen are Abad and Melancon, both young with live arms. Really surprised they didn't consider Abad for the #5 spot but he may end up there by the break. MM has closer stuff, I don't trust Lopez to be the setup man. He had a REAL nice 2010 but it was his first good year and he struggled down the stretch. I say Abad is the #5 by the all star break and MM is the setup man by season's end.
At this time last year Reds were #20, Giants #23 and Padres #27. Check out their wright up on the Giants... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/organizational-rankings-23-san-francisco/
Ha I was reading the comments from people on the Astros one above, people were talking about this how the (same?) guy said the same thing about the Giants and well....never "owned" back up to what he wrote.
I mean, they guy had/has good points in his write ups but baseball is soooooooooo hard to predict. To many variables, besides the Yanks, it seems 2 or 3 surprise teams pop up out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Heck, I thought Feliz was going to hit 20 bombs last year and be a decent hitter in our lineup...that prediction didn't go well for me.
• Teams that have spoken with the Astros report they'd like to add a veteran catcher, but have just about zero money to spend. And an official of one club reports they have "nothing going" on that front.
Forbes ranks Astros as 14th MVF http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/22/mets-yankees-phillies-dodgers-baseball-valuations_slide.html http://www.forbes.com/2011/03/22/mets-yankees-phillies-dodgers-baseball-valuations_slide_15.html 14. Houston Astros Team Value: 474 million
