I wonder what the impact would be of the draft order set to match team revenue instead of win/loss record. Would probably accomplish the leveling better than the QO system, but it would suck to see crummy small market teams doing things in August/September to drive down revenue.
Astros are incredibly thin as they've lost 570+ innings in Cole, Miley, McHugh, Harris, and Rondon. Greinke, Urquidy, and LMJ will help take some of those innings. They've also lost another 33.1 in bad pitching. Until some guys in the minors are ready, Astros are likely going to play stop gaps like Pruit and Devo to try to give offense a chance.
They’re not “incredibly thin”. They project to have the 7th best rotation and 6th best bullpen in MLB. It really just comes down to Cole. Greinke, Urquidy, McCullers, Pruitt, Smith, and all the young arms are likely to outperform all the non-Cole innings that were lost. And given the team is heavily favored to win the division as-is, it really comes down to replacing Cole’s playoff performance, which was unreal (5 games: 4-1, 1.72 era, 36.2 innings, 47 k, 0.87 whip). There was never really any chance of replacing that level of playoff performance, including re-signing Cole.
Depth is more about what happens to cover injuries than top end talent. I do consider Pruit valuable depth even though most others raise an eyebrow at it or didn't like the trade for him. It appears you are using FanGraphs Depth Charts. How many sub-Pruit ERA (or FIP depending on your preference) starting pitcher innings are they projecting? When I think of Astros starting pitching depth, I see JV, Greinke, LMJ, Urquidy, Peacock, Pruit, and Armenteros as guys that Astros can live with in more than a spot start. I like Armenteros a little better than his projection and Framber a lot worse than his. FanGraphs projection isn't kind to the other potential starters at the moment. I expect someone like Javier or Whitley will step up like Urquidy did last year and be ready for some innings later in the season. Considering at least 6 of the 7 SPs that I think will be close to average or better will be pitching in the majors, Astros starting pitching depth is basically one guy until someone from the minors steps up.
3 Things I am pretty sure either will happen or came close to happening: Correa and Reddick traded for Castillo or Syndergaard, followed by Houston signing Josh Donaldson (pretty sure this trade was delayed/derailed by legal issues, physicals, or PR; would put ~20% of still happening). Springer extended (I would put this at >50% of happening, may be delayed to reduce potential backlash of Correa trade). Prospects traded for Mychal Givens (pretty sure this fell apart and the Pruitt deal took its place).
If you’re only analyzing starting pitching, compared to opening day last year, you lost Miley, McHugh, and Cole; you gain McCullers, Greinke, and Urquidy. Again, the only downgrade is Cole. If you want to call this group “incredibly thin” then that label would apply to almost every team including Houstons last few years.
Last year, Astros had 9 SPs projected to have better ERA and FIPs than Pruit prior to the season according to FanGraphs. 9 is a lot more depth than 4 and Framber. Edit: Granted, the SP depth (not top of the line guys) projected last year turned out to suck in 1st half last year.
I'd settle for wildcard birth and winning the WS over 4 seasons of 100 wins. Limit JV, LMJ, ZG innings and use the young arms, let them learn, see what they can do. Then in the second half crank up the best staff possible.
Astros gonna have to overcome the umps next season ... MLB gonna do everything they can to keep them out of the playoffs and get them out early if they do make it
here come the conspiracy theories like the one where the league is framing the Astros with fake news about them cheati....wait
I will be very surprised if Springer isn’t extended in the next 3 weeks. Crane loves him, he wants something positive to promote, and he doesn’t need a GM to negotiate something to that’s been on the table for 3 years. But I would imagine any trades will be on hold until the deadline. Quick reminder: the Astros are still projected to be the best team in baseball this season.
Looking at the numbers I wonder if Hinch was right, the cheating was more of a distraction to our hitters than any kind of nenfit. We also know the Nats played off of our sign stealing and maybe it explains some of the at bats where great hitters looked hopeless at home last year in the post season...then go on the road and looked like their usual selves... maybe they relied on it too much instead of their own talent. So, I'm predicting a revenge tour 2020 year.
You honestly think this went beyond 2018? Shouldn’t have been that hard to prove if so...yet they’re pretty certain none of this happened this past year. the Astros probably still tried to do things the conventional way that most teams do... try and manipulate things with guys at 2nd. Also, doesn’t explain why they mashed their pitching (and mostly all pitching) on the road.
Crane loved Luhnow and Hinch too. And extended both of them. I think expecting any more payroll splurges for this core should be approached with caution. Crane may truly want to start over in all aspects... including not having the second highest payroll in baseball for a franchise that certainly will have an image problem for next year and beyond.
I think it’s extremely likely that Pete Putila becomes acting GM, although he probably will not get the title. Crane will probably be very involved in any major decisions regarding trades or extensions, at least thru the deadline. Putila actually predates Luhnow, starting with the Astros in 2011.
