Disagree Not from a will we win the west standpoint But if everyone other than JV and ZG struggle, our pen will be worn out come playoff time. And one of the big keys to winning it all, in my opinion, is having a guy like Lance who can go to the pen and dominate in the playoffs. We don't win in 17 without starters going to the pen. Everyone talks about CFM and his dominance to finish game 7, and it was awesome. People forget Peacock who started 21 games that year taking over for Lance in game 3 (i think) and shutting them down for 4 innings to clinch the win. Musgrove who started 15 games that year throwing a clutch 8th inning in the game 2 win. If we are going to win it all, we will either need a strong pen at the end, or guys like Lance/Urquidy/James/Whitley going from starting roles to key shutdown roles in the end. If everyone other than JV and ZG are "icing on the cake", our cake will be a division cake, not a World Series one
There is a very high likelihood the Astros add another quality starter before the deadline. The costs in free agency have been prohibitive. However there are quality arms that will be available and talks made that could lead to something later.
Yes. If every Astro but those two are injured or suck, yes Astros will not win World Series. If JV and Greinke and every Astros except LMJ and Urquidy and whoever the 5th starter is hurt, Astros wont win either. If Verlander and Greinke are fine, the Astros will be fine. Yep. Who is in BoR opening Day doesn't matter too much. If Urquidy and LMJ are great, that's fabulous. If not, Astros will have to make move. JV and Greinke are 2/3's of a playoff rotation.
How quickly we forget that we started the 2017 season with Keuchel as our frontline starter followed by LMJ, Morton and McHugh. The rotation should be fine and can easily be bolstered at the deadline if need be.
There’s strong possibility of Morton, L. CAstillo, Clevinger, Boyd, Ray, etc being shopped at the deadline, I don’t mind the Astros giving in-house options the chance to earn a spot. Now’s the time too get these top prospects’ feet wet. Offense can rake for long stretches.
Fantasy trade because this offseason has been boring... Correa, Reddick, Whitley, Bielak to the Mets Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Jeff McNeil to the Astros Resign Chirinos Springer CF McNeil 3B Altuve 2B Brantley LF Bregman SS Alvarez DH Gurriel 1B Chirinos C Tucker RF Maldonado Straw Diaz Toro Verlander Greinke Syndergaard McCullers Urquidy Osuna Pressly Lugo Smith James Peacock Abreu Devenski/Biagini
oh I didn’t forget how Keuchal moped around the clubhouse after July 31st when we failed to make a move. That was about the time our most reliable starting pitchers were what. Peacock and Mike “the snitch” Fiers
Man would I LOVE to have McNeil. Such a solid contact hitter with pop. That would be one of those trades where it hurts both teams but excites both fan bases at the same time. Trades are gunna hurt a little because you have to pay for what you want. By the way how many more years of control do McNeil and Lugo have?
Those two plus Thor. SHINY NEW TOYS!!!! My favorites. Astros have some of the lowest turnover in the league I believe, so the offseasons feel boring. Doubt we add too much outside our org save a small Miley-esque signing, but it'll be fun if we do. Of course winning is more fun, but the gap in the West has closed considerably.
McNeil could be a Brantley-like addition to our lineup, but I don't see how we can realistically get him. Moving Correa and Whitley in the same deal would be pretty mind blowing. We'll be in play for a Diaz/Miley type addition. That said, HOU is still set up pretty beautifully. We're in a good spot, depth-wise, to let the team compete for playing time. A veteran innings eater would be a nice addition to save-face, but I could see Luhnow waiting until necessary. In the mean time, let Urquidy/Peacock/Framber/Martes/James/Perez (et al...) fight it out for SP4 and SP5 starts, and then have guys like Whitley, Javier, Abreu, etc. to fill in as the wear and tear builds. I could even see them bringing Mchugh back to fight for SP5/bullpen depth.
Really interesting trade, but I just don’t think the Mets would be interested in that. Their rotation gets a LOT worse and their lineup only improves marginally. But I think in terms of value it’s pretty fair. I would like that deal a lot for Houston.
Here’s one I think would make sense that I would like: Mets get: SS Carlos Correa OF Josh Reddick IF Enmanuel Valdez $6M Astros get: SS Ronny Mauricio 3B Brett Baty SP Steven Matz RP Seth Lugo Mets get an MVP caliber SS/3B and an everyday corner OF that allows them to option/trade Smith and move Rosario, McNeil, Lowrie, and Davis around wherever needed. They can cut bait with Reddick once Cespedes comes back. They accomplish this without giving up any of their top 3 SP or any of their core MLB ready young players. They have Porcello and Wacha ready to step in for Matz and still have an extremely deep pen with Betances, Diaz, Wilson, Brach, Familia, and Gsellman. Astros add an elite RP and a solid MoR SP, both with multiple years of control, along with 2 Top 100 prospects. They do it without adding much payroll and only getting only marginally worse on offense. Diaz, Toro, and Straw can absorb Correa’s ABs, and there’s still time to sign a Frazier/Zimmerman/Thames type to a cheap 1 yr deal to play 1B if they want to shift Yuli over to 3B (or they could just have NY throw in Lowrie).
I know Correa has his injury issues and he is kind of a douche, but you guys are really trying to give him away.
I wouldn't give him away, that is foolish. However if the Astros can get a #2 starter under long term control they have to seriously consider it. The Astros rotation needs another good starter, and both Verlander and Greinke will be up soon. Correa has done little to help the Astros in the post season the last few years because of injuries. The Astros also have some internal prospects that can play 3rd base with Bregman at SS.
Nobody is trying to give him away, but his injury issues have been extremely consistent causing him to be a very mediocre player in October when we needed him the most for the last 2 postseasons. We have other roster issues, he won't be here long term, and we have in house options to replace him. I highly doubt he gets moved because it's simply too hard to match value for him given his potential/risk combination, but a lot of pieces fit so it's very easy to try and play fantasy GM with him, which sports fans love to do. His off field unpopularity certainly plays into it.
Let’s paint Correa’s absolute best case scenario: he stays totally healthy and is a 6 win player in 2020 and 2021. He’ll make $7.4M this season and in that scenario would be in line for a big raise, so say $15M in 2021. Then he’d reject a QO and go get his $300M. So absolute best case, he’s worth $120M in on-the-field value plus the roughly $10M value of the QO draft pick, and he’d only cost about $23M. Which leaves him with ~$100M in surplus value (in this absolute dream scenario). In my hypothetical I have Houston paying down Reddick to fair value and Valdez is a valueless throw-in to give the Mets a minor league infielder to plug their newly created holes. Baty and Mauricio are back end Top 100 prospects worth ~$15-20M apiece, so say $30M conservatively. Lugo has 3 years of control remaining and has averaged 1.8 fWAR the last 3 seasons, meaning he projects to be worth a total of ~$54M over his remaining control. He will be arbitration eligible during that time, so conservatively he probably has about $30M in surplus value. Matz has 2 seasons of control left and has averaged 1.3 fWAR the last 4 seasons, meaning he (again, conservatively) should be worth ~$26M over the next 2 season. He should make ~$10M over that time, giving him about $15M in surplus value. So assuming the absolute 99th percentile outcome for Correa and assuming ~40th percentile outcome for the players coming back, Houston would “lose” this hypothetical trade by ~$25M, or the value of one prospect ranked in the 40-70 range. I won’t get into the details of the other potential (and far more likely) outcomes in which Correa slumps or gets hurt, or Strom is able to dramatically improve Matz/Lugo, or either of the prospects reaches their ceiling, or any combination of those things. But suffice it to say, I think on paper this trade is pretty fair. Bottom line is trading Correa for a team’s 2 best prospects plus 2 established major leaguers with multiple years of control is hardly “giving him away”.
