Agreed. I love the mix the Astros have. Not all old. Not all young. They have their core 4 that are all about the same in terms of maturity/development and each (when healthy) could be a potential MVP or be the featured star. They have two veterans in Brantley and Gurriel who are the quinticiential "professional" hitters... who both know their strengths/weaknesses, and won't be phased by any aspect of the game. Then they have their young potential future stars in Alvarez/Tucker who will have all the tools/resources/guidance to succeed... without any of the pressure. I expect the lineup will carry this team for the entirety of this shortened season... and should be in perfect "mid-season" form by the time the playoffs actually get played.
Given their age I’d expect the Astros could retain Springer, Brantley & Gurriel, if they choose. Keeping Brantley & Gurriel for a year or two beyond this season should bridge the gap for strong developed prospects to emerge at 1B/LF.
To me it would make a lot of sense to keep all 3 of those guys, as they should have the money, and it ensures a stacked lineup thru at least next season. After next year they can Re-assess and determine if they need to rebuild (collect QO picks for Correa, Verlander, Greinke, possibly Osuna and McCullers; trade Bregman, Springer, Tucker, Alvarez, Whitley, Urquidy, etc.) or continue trying to contend (Re-sign Correa, spend money/prospects to add pitching). I still think if both Tucker and Whitley aren’t established stars by the end of next season, it probably makes sense to rebuild/reload. Altuve will be aging, Alvarez is injury prone, Bregman will be expensive, and there may be no established high end pitching.
It could make sense to rebuild this year if the season turns into a disaster. The amount of talent you could acquire by trading off Springer, Brantley, Gurriel, Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Osuna, and Correa would be interesting. Obviously, I don't see the Astros trading those guys, but going forward with Bregman, Altuve, and Alvarez as 1/3 of your lineup for the next 4-5 years is a solid foundation. Especially with the amount of payroll the Astros could also throw in. Mets signed Jared Hughes. He opted out of his deal with the Astros during Spring training. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/06/mets-sign-jared-hughes.html
I’d like to think that Crane is going to have his foot on the gas (and with no plans of rebuilding) for a while. Crane has got to be hungrier than ever. He isn’t isn’t going to want to fold because his team is getting expensive. So many teams rebuild to no avail. Rebuilding isn’t an exact science and requires a ton of luck. There will be a time to rebuild, sure...I just hope, and think, that’s going to be closer to the end of the decade than the beginning of it. We’ve got a slew of Hall of Fame caliber players. Right now and for the next few years. We’re not going to throw in the towel for a hodge podge of solidly ranked but unproven prospects...I just don’t see that happening. I think the massive chip on our shoulder changes everything. If the cheating scandal never surfaced...sure, it’s easier to stomach a rebuild. Great run. I just don’t see Crane giving in that easily and just trading HOF caliber players for prospects.
In the likely free agent atmosphere we will be facing next offseason, Brantley might accept a 1 year deal hoping for a better financial climate heading in to 2022 Yuli, at his age, won’t command a long term commitment or big money. If they can get Springer signed, they could likely bring back all 3
I agree with this fully And too many people think it’s easy to just rebuild and do it again. Fact is most teams that rebuild don’t do it successfully. Luhnow did a great job with the draft slotting system, and while he took over a horrible overall team, having Altuve and Springer sitting there for you certainly helped. The failure rate of prospects is just too high to assume you could do it again. Plus, not sure how quickly the fan base would return if they tried that and I’m sure Crane understands that The key to keeping this going will be pitching. Need to his on at least 2 out of Urquidy, James, Abreu, Whitley
I would say the odds of a successful and quick rebuild would be pretty good if you keep Altuve, Bregman, and Alvarez plus have over 100-125 million in payroll room to go along with those prospects you acquire in trades. Like I said, I don't expect it to happen unless something goes terribly wrong with injuries or some other disaster. At the same time, I want the front office to continue to be smart. If we can't extend guys and we can't field a World Series team then make the moves.
Keep the foot on the gas. While it may have all the been the result of cheating, we have to find out. Keep putting money into the engine. Even though the brand was smudged, the franchise value will vault back up if they have a few more deep runs.
Rebuilds aren't easy, but putting head in sand is worse. Not sure if Astros will need a full rebuild soon. For Astros payroll, they will need 3-4 position players, the bench, half the pen, and 2-3 starters on club control contracts to compete.* *Edit: These numbers are approximate and fungible. For instance, if Astros get 4 starters on club control, they will need less position players on club control.
If you use the 2017 roster as a barometer, this is how I’d group them players: Young, inexpensive stars (4): Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Springer Expensive veteran stars (1): Verlander Expensive 2nd tier players (6): Reddick, McCann, Gurriel, Beltran, Keuchel, Morton inexpensive 2nd tier players (12): Marwin, Gattis, Marisnick, Fiers, Peacock, mcCullers, Musgrove, Devenski, McHugh, Giles, Harris, Gregerson 3rd tier players (4+): Aoki, Fisher, Hoyt, others Looking at the current situation, projecting forward ~5 years: Inexpensive stars (3): Tucker*, Alvarez, Whitley* Expensive stars (3): Altuve, Bregman, Springer Expensive 2nd tier players: James Inexpensive 2nd tier players (12): K Lee*, Barber*, Santos*, Urquidy, Abreu, Nova*, Toro, Straw, Pena*, Javier*, Brown*, Solis* *hopefully And we can assume there will be a steady supply of 3rd tier players from the farm (Stubbs) and low cost free agent/trade deals (Garneau). So there’s certainly a path by which Houston can remain a contender thru the end of the decade, but it depends on them being able to develop internally not only 2-3 star level players, but also a significant group of 2nd tier players.
2017 likely isn't a good barometer of what is needed. It is unlikely that the Astros payroll is that low and that MLB is still in an era of superteams in 5 years. I'd guess the Astros will need about 10-12 wins less from inexpensive players than they did in 2017 to be World Series Contenders.
Quick is the key word there. The last rebuild took 4-5 years. That would put all the vets you want to keep in their declining years by the time we contend again. If you think we can rebuild in two, then ok. But I am not sure what strategy you employ to simply rebuild quickly. I mean, were were not trying to rebuild slowly the first time. Not to mention a rebuild right now would be hampered somewhat by the loss of draft picks.
Its not that really. Its that we are at a point where we cant retain all the guys we want. If we have to fold, it will be because our depth gets diluted to the point where we cant compete at the highest levels any longer.
This wasn’t what I expected to conclude, but if they rebuild, it will probably take just as long. Luhnow started with a farm that was led by Springer, Singleton, and Cosart as prospects in the back half of the Top 100, but was sorely lacking in depth. The big league roster had Altuve as a building block (ignoring JD Martinez), but in terms of tradeable assets, had only 2nd tier players: Lowrie, Johnson, Castro, Norris, Wandy, Happ, Lyles, Myers. If Houston were to embark on a rebuild in 2022, they’d have Altuve, Bregman, and Alvarez as star caliber players to trade, and likely a handful of 2nd tier players nearing their arbitration years in Urquidy, James, and possibly Abreu and Tucker. The farm has only one premium prospect (Whitley), who is likely to either be established in the bigs or totally busted. The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is that Crane maintains a high payroll and stays as competitive as possible at least until Bregman and Altuve’s contracts expire. If the World Series roster was built around Altuve, Correa, Bregman, and Springer, I think building around Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker for the next half decade makes sense.
People forget how dominant that 2017 team was on the road. Scored 106 more total runs OUTSIDE of MMP (501 away; 395 at home); only the 2001 Mariners had a better single-season road record than the 2017 Astros.
It would be SHOCKING if Crane decided to rebuild in the next year or so 1) very few teams this year or next are even in the same class with us, how many teams in history started a rebuild when they were a top 3-4 team 2) in a world where cash flow in sports is coming to a screeching halt, the value of the franchise itself still holds tremendous importance to these owners. As currently constructed the Astros are at an all time high in value. Couple the cheating with a rebuild along with the economic climate we are living in and the value of the franchise could easily plummet 3) how many teams in the current economic climate (not just Covid but with a work stoppage likely on the horizon) would be willing to trade talented young prospects for expensive veterans? I can’t imagine there will be many teams willing to take on expensive veterans in this climate. There was nothing the Dodgers could do about acquiring Betts and then not getting a full season, no way to see this coming. But put yourself in todays world, with Covid AND work stoppage issues staring you in the face, your not giving up prospects with years of cheap control for expensive veterans that you don’t even know how many games you could potentially get out of them. We ain’t rebuilding anytime in the near future. Now IF we have a full 2021 season and injuries or whatever cause us to get off to a really bad start, you could see older last year contract guys like JV and ZG moved. It’s very unlikely anything happens that would make us out of contention though, we just have way too much talent for that to be likely. But even so, moving a couple of last year guys isn’t exactly rebuilding I think it’s FAR more likely we extend either Springer or Correa, short term Yuli and try to win our 3rd title in 2021, then see where the pitching sits at that point and what a short term deal for JV or ZG would cost
When teams decide to rebuild, it usually meant they decided to go all-in a season or two before. I would not be shocked if Crane demands Click goes all-in in 2020 or 2021.
