http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-rangers-are-facing-a-difficult-winter/ Hope our brass doesn't see this. Yup, projections have us in first place.
Pretty sure projections had them in first place last year as well... before they knew what Bregman could potentially be, before signing Yuli, before Musgrove, before the Giles acquisition (which I understand, jury is still out, but he is a bullpen weapon that provides an element, the strikeout, that they sorely lacked). There's still going to be a strong effort put forward to improve this team in all aspects. They can't just presume that the ultra-cheap prime years of Correa/Springer/Altuve/Bregman will serve as all the window they need to remain in contention.
Well that's simply ridiculous. If Moreland hit .800 OPS for the entire season that'd be a solid player who'd be perfectly fine as the 6th best hitter. If the Astros sign Moreland in addition to trading for Sale and signing Encarnacion that's an amazing off-season.
I thought the 1997-2001 Astros were more fun than the 2003-2005 ones.... even though there was no playoff series wins or world series appearance. This version of the Astros is more similar to the 90's ones. Young core players in their primes to be supplemented by some key veteran acquisitions (hopefully). In the 90's it was Alou, Carl Everett, and Ausmus that served as perfect complements to the homegrown Biggio, Bagwell, Kile, Reynolds, Wagner (Hampton, via trade), Lima core.
Playoffs are just too short. 1998 Astros were probably the Astros best team ever and only won 1 playoff game. Baseball is fickle that way.
How much do the Astros have to send in 2017? Current contracts (4 players) - $31.4 million Arbitration (8 players) - $31.1 million Options (2 players) - $11.7 million Pre-arbitration (9 players) - $5 million Jon Singleton (Replacement-level player) - $2 million Total (23 players) - $81 million Though there are 23 players listed, Houston still has a few holes on the roster, including one at catcher and a couple in the rotation. Let's say the Astros take the totally defensible stance of non-tendering Brad Peacock and declining the option on Pat Neshek. That cuts our roster number to 21 and frees up $6.8 million from our total. Assuming Houston stays close to its 2016 budget of $96 million, the Astros would have around $22 million to spend on those four spots. The Astros still have plenty of roster decision to make. They must decide whether to extend qualifying offers to free agents Jason Castro and Luis Valbuena. They have to consider bringing back Doug Fister and how the roster knits together. They have to decide whether to bring in Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. as a free agent.
Well, a) no, that's pedestrian for a 1B/DH; b) Mitch Moreland's not going to top .800 for an entire year because he is an exceedingly mediocre baseball player. He's topped .800 once in the past six seasons and carries a career OB% of .315. Three out of the last 4 years, it's been sub .300. And he strikes out a lot. If you don't think you can open an window and find a 1B/DH who can be that crushingly mediocre, I don't know what to tell you. In nearly 800 career games, he has a WAR of 4.9; he's topped .9 WAR in exactly one season. He almost literally adds zero value to the team. There is no scenario in which an offseason that prominently features the acquisition of Mitch Moreland could be termed "amazing."
Some also say the season is too long.... but I'm one of the few that loves the heightened drama that the short series provides, regardless of how fickle/random it is. Playoff baseball is almost an entirely different sport.
I expect we will sign Gurriel, but I think the though process needs to be that we are bringing him in as a prospect. Don't count on him to contribute from day 1. I'm fine with that meaning Jake Marisnick being the starting CF (and Lourdes being a potential in season upgrade if he shows up big in AA/AAA), but we need a starting LF (which I'd prefer not to be Yulieski/Bregman or other internal option). I think we'll bring in a defensive minded catcher and we'll see Gattis be the primary catcher. I think Castro moves on. Valbuena might get the qualifying offer with the idea if he accepts that he could be the starting 1B if he accepts(for people suggesting Moreland, Valbuena has an OPS+ of 114 over the last 3 years compared to Moreland's 98). He would also give this team an amazing amount of versatility with subs between him, Yuli, Marwin, & Bregman. Doug Fister should not be back, unless it is on a very cheap 1 year deal. We need to improve the rotation in case LMJ ends up being one of those perpetually injured guys and Keuchel/McHugh/Fiers can't bounce back to where they were the last couple of seasons.
Mediocre, average, bad. Call it what you want. My expectation of Moreland isn't particularly high either. 1B/DH is in a weird position now. You've got the elite guys (Freeman, Big Papi, etc) and then behind it a bunch of what you'd term mediocre guys. Not the classic 90's stereotype where every 1B/DH had over a .900 ops. Looking at the leaderboards, it's like 10 guys at each of those positions putting up greater than an .800 OPS now. I'd be happy with .740-.780. I'd bat him 6th or 7th and that'd be a perfectly fine level of production from that spot in the order. He's a professional hitter who I wouldn't mind being at the plate in a critical position, as opposed to tyler white (.664 OPS) or AJ Reed (.532 OPS). Will those guys improve? Hopefully/definitely. But if I'm the FO I would not bank on it. Keep in mind, last year AJ wasn't even mediocre. He was terrible. My point with Moreland is that the Astros can significantly improve the offense by replacing the terrible offense at the bottom of the lineup with average/mediocre players (at a moderate investment) rather than spending a ****-ton of money signing multiple high end players. Among qualified players last year, the Astros had 5 guys above .800 OPS and the sixth guy came in a .694. The lineup was very "stars and scrubs" like this year.
I'm all for signing baby Gurriel but any expectation that he'll contribute in 2017 is optimistic at best. I'd love Valbuena back to play first over Moreland but I expect to cost significantly more short and long term than Moreland. In retrospect 3/30 for Moreland would be crazy. 3/30 for valbuena potentially not crazy.
I agree on Gurriel, just hope the FO thinks that way. Moreland would be an upgrade over what we had, but I'd like a major upgrade at 1B/DH, and then roll the dice that one of White/Reed/Yuli can hold down the other 1B/DH job. That hole is the reason I might risk the QO on Valbuena, but I wouldn't want to do a long-term deal with him (unless it comes at a discount because the QO killed his value). When does the CBA actually expire? I know it is this offseason, but with the current QO/Draft Compensation a major topic, it would be a major factor in FA. I'm hoping they keep the compensation system (or a tiered version sort of like the Class A vs B FAs of before, but using QOs to determine A vs B FAs), but do away with the loss of the pick.
The more I think about it the more I think Castro could be in play for a QO. Ramos is hurt which puts Castro in the mix for best FA at his position; we also know Houston values his defense. I don't relish the idea of spending $17M on Castro but for a 1 year deal to guarantee a guy who is already familiar with the staff and hits left handed isn't terrible. I would estimate Houston to have ~$40M to spend in free agency ($120M limit with ~$80M committed). Signing Lourdes Gurriel might count towards that amount. Current wishlist is Reddick, Castro, Valbuena, and Chapman. Trade for 1 ToR SP (Sale, Archer, Quintana, or Teheran) and one other SP (either an upside play like Ross or Gray or a salary dump like Santana or Bailey). Opening day roster: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa RF Reddick DH Gurriel 1B White/Valbuena platoon C Gattis/Castro platoon LF Marisnick/Kemp platoon UT Marwin Rotation: Sale, Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Gray Bullpen: Fiers, Peacock, Sipp, Harris, Gregerson, Giles, Chapman Traded for Sale/Gray: Martes, Paulino, Tucker, Feliz, Fisher, Devenski, Reed, Teoscar
I don't think Luhnow is going to risk Castro or Valbuena accepting the QO. Rasmus accepting the QO really set the Astros back last off season. He ate up a majority of their money.
My guess is that roster would be something like 20 to 30 million over the $120 limit you've specified with basically nothing left in AA or AAA to cover injuries. Even then, I doubt Sale and Gray can be acquired for what you are saying.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr should be ready in the beginning of the 2018 season. Needs to get rid of the rust and just don't rush him. Best international prospect in some time. Hope Astros sign him.
Agreed with all points. Specifically that FA four-some would cost well more than $40m (particularly if Castro got the QO); plus adding Sale's contract is another $12m per year. Also I don't think either the ChiSox and A's would settle for whatever combination of those players you're dreaming up Snake. Particularly for Sale I don't see them taking a package that doesn't have one current big leaguer with upside whether it be Bregman, McCullers or less likely Springer.
I like the Wild Cards and the divisions and all that crap, but the season meant a lot more when it was just a 4 division 4 team playoff. '86 was the greatest playoffs I've ever seen, tell me I'm wrong.
