Like I said, I'm upset that Yang wasn't owning the discussion and tap dancing across the stage (in retrospect obviously not his fault), but that's more my inner fanboy talking due to anticipation/buildup. However, if he is "playing the long game", I can't fault him for that. He's in it to win it, as he should be. If his ideas start getting picked up, then I won't care about him winning as much. As of yet, that hasn't happened. So, for now, I'm OK with focusing on winning and not focusing on moving the Overton window. To someone like you that believes he can't win, that makes no sense, but that's where you and I differ. I believe he can win.
Ignoring my views of his viability, there's still a logic flow problem here. He can only win if his ideas pick up. But his ideas can't pick up unless he pushes them. And he can't push them if he's just playing a waiting game. The ideas picking up have to come first - that would drive attention, which would drive poll numbers, which is the only route to making it possible to win. This field is going to narrow very quickly, and he needs to make a move now if he expects to advance onward. At this point, there's basically 4 tiers: #1: Biden, Sanders, Warren #2: Pete, Harris (maybe moving to tier 1 depending on polls after this debate) #3: Beto, Klobuchar, Booker (regardless of poll #s, they are considered viable Presidents) #4: Everyone else For Yang or anyone else to have even a 1% shot to win this thing, they need to be in Tier 3 by the end of the next debate. Because after that, 10 people aren't going to still be legitimately in the running with Iowa just 6 months away.
This is not necessarily true, at least right now. I posted this gif as a joke summary of the last two debates: In other words -- you don't have to come out of the gate swinging like mad. Especially a guy like Yang who has a more comfortable cushion than the rest of the 3rd tier candidates (my tiers are different than yours, with tier 3 being the bottom). Yang has (practically) secured his spot for September and October. It would've been nice for him to land a haymaker last night or make a splash (as it would any time), but it wasn't absolutely necessary. This is a marathon, not sprint. It's a war of attrition. He can wait for the moment to come to him. Not forever, but he does have time.
We can agree to disagree for now, but September spots are based on both polling and fundraising. I think he'd fine in terms of fundraising, but the polling criteria is based on specific qualifying polls starting today - he'll need to meet 2% in at least 4 polls going forward. October criteria haven't even been released yet, so there's no way to know what will happen there. 538 has Yang as a "toss-up" on whether he'd qualify or not for September: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-whos-in-danger-of-missing-the-third-debate/
Fair enough. I have faith given his trajectory. His whole campaign has been the underdog of underdogs, and he's very much overachieved. I'm not going to lie and say "last night was awesome!" because it clearly wasn't, but I'm also not panicking at his prospects or doubting him as a candidate as much as I am just raging/venting at the unfairness levied against him.
State polls hopefully are the one that they are counting. Yang's polling numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire might be on a different track than national polls.
Candidates must receive 2% or more support in at least four national polls, or polls conducted in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and/or Nevada.
Wasn't Trump @ like 1%, ranking right around 10th in the GOP primary at exactly the analogous time in 2015?
He did have the advantage of name recognition and saying wildly stupid and offensive things that the media loved to cover, however. Something tells me Yang won't be playing the same game.
In my sphere, it seems liberal friends who embark on serious twitter time emerge as complete unconversational radicals a month or so later. It's seriously disturbing. The bubble reinforcement phenomenon seems to be at its peak on liberal twitter. SAD!
They have remarkably parallel but totally different stories/strategies. Donald Trump was the dog turd in an ocean of oatmeal. Andrew Yang is the bitcoin in an ocean of nickels and dimes.
This guys channel does great analysis and breakdowns of Yang's campaign. His points about internet activity (search queries, social media following, etc) give me hope. Keeping pace with Buttigieg and Harris despite the total lack of media coverage is encouraging. There will likely be a very small swoon in the first polls after the debate because of just how little airtime he was given, but it shouldn't last as more people start to fade out. If CNN shows him even a modicum of fairness in the next debate we will see a totally different story.
He honestly seems like one of the few candidates to have both a real sense of humor and a sense of perspective.
Not really, no. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html He was at 1% around mid-June before he announced. The minute he announced he was running, he went to 10%. Within a month of announcing, he was at 20% and leading the polls - which he did the rest of the way.
