[NY Daily News] The NBA Just Began Its War Against James Harden

smoothie_king · Sep 28, 2019

Last season was disappointing and laughable considering the mvp debate of harden vs Giannis!

Easy said: ↑

Ask the Jazz fans.
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stil surprised ricky rubio won fiba!

tinman · Sep 28, 2019

Os Trigonum said: ↑

for you conspiracy theorists out there

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/...0190926-2xsqfxhdlvcrtgqnwe4lq2gtaq-story.html

The NBA just began its war on James Harden

By KYLE WAGNER
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |
SEP 26, 2019 | 7:04 PM

The NBA G League will put into effect a small but laser-focused rule change this season. Players will take one free throw attempt regardless of how many points are on the line. That means a player fouled in the act of shooting a three will shoot one shot for three points, and a player completing an and-1 will shoot one shot for one point. The league says the rule is meant to address pace of play, which it will, but it will have the secondary effect of bringing unwatchable, foul-hunting offenses closer into balance.

Players shoot about four or five percentage points better on the second free throw, and somewhere around six to nine percent better on the third shot compared to the first. This makes sense for obvious reasons: Taking a warmup shot or two makes a shot easier. By removing the second and third shot, players would live and die on that first, worse shot. That not only lowers the overall percentage, but consolidates the risk — one miss means no points. This would not only be good for the league, but necessary.

If we take the pace-of-play change for granted, how else would the new rule affect the viewing experience while the ball is actually in play?

The massive difference between the first and third shot would disproportionately affect some especially annoying players. James Harden, who uses the universally loathed stop-and-flail move to draw more three-shot fouls than any NBA team, would see the efficiency of those plays plummet. Enough to dissuade him from doing it? Perhaps not. But his reward for playing litigation ball would be lessened, which is a minor win for the good guys.

The G League's new rule for free throws seems to have been created with players like James Harden in mind. (Rick Bowmer/AP)

Despite the rapid rise of long-distance shooting over the past several years, the most efficient shot in basketball is not the three-pointer; it is the free throw. Time was, a high number of free throws meant a player was taking a beating. Eight or 10 free throws per game was the gold standard for a star player relentlessly attacking the rim in search of the second most efficient shot, the layup. The Jordan Rules would surrender points at the line, but extract blood in the bargain.

In today's game, that is not always the case. Especially not in Houston. Players actively seek out any contact and quickly rise up for a shot they would not otherwise take. This is good strategy but bad viewing. Adam Silver told me earlier this summer that the league would not be looking at more radical changes to free throw efficiency, such as moving back the line, so total sea change is not in the cards for the free throw. But clearly, that does not mean they are above tinkering.

On the whole, there are actually relatively few foul shots per game in the modern NBA. But that is mainly due to the game's shift beyond the arc. Can't draw fouls if you are far from the rim (unless you are James Harden). So rebalancing the value of the free throw is not simply about curtailing the raw number of free throws, but the way the game is played when players are not simply jacking threes.

The counter-argument would be that fouls themselves are not fun to watch, and giving defenders any reason to foul more often is a net negative for the game. This does not pass the smell test, however, since the foul shot is so efficient that even a slight nerf to its effectiveness would not come close to making that a "good" outcome for the defense. The league shot 76.6 percent from the line last season. Knock that down by a few points (or by ten points!) and the offense still comes out on top. The league would have to shoot under 55 percent on free throws to underperform the median offense from last season.

Put another way, fouling a 60 percent free throw shooter every time down the court would result in 120 points per 100 possessions. The best offenses in the league, the Warriors and the Rockets, scored fewer than 116 points per 100 last season. Turning DeAndre Jordan into a one-man Death Lineup does not seem like the sort of strategy that would catch on under this new rule.

What does seem likely is that, when he needs a bucket late in the game, Harden would be less inclined to crash into any defender in his zip code and consider attacking the rim. Or perhaps he does not change his behavior, but more frequently comes away from the play with no points to show for the slip-and-sue. Either would be an improvement.

James Harden draws a foul on a 3-point shot attempt against Memphis Grizzlies forward Justin Holiday. (Brandon Dill/AP)

Free throws serve a vital and necessary role in the game by deterring defenses from crushing offensive players every possession. Very few fans want to go back to the days when the reverse armbar was a legal defensive position. But the calibration on the distance and difficulty of the free throw was made when the game was in its infancy and player skill was not nearly as refined. Beginning in the ‘50s, players were allowed three shots to make two once the defense was over the foul limit. It's safe to say players have improved over the last 60-odd years.

The basic truth of the shot today is that it is far too efficient, and that perverts incentives for an offense. Players are too skilled, and attention is increasingly turned toward what works best. The league's free throw percentage could fall by 10 or 15 percentage points and a foul that results in free throws would still be an absolute win for the offense. The game is fundamentally broken if the Warriors offense would improve by leaps and bounds if Draymond Green, a 69 percent free throw shooter, shot two free throws every possession and Stephen Curry never touched the ball.

That’s where we are today, and the reason Harden is completely in the right to play the way he does. It will take more drastic action than even this experimental rule to change that truth, but implementing it in the NBA would nonetheless be a welcome first step.
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We need to win the war against the impure

smoothie_king · Sep 28, 2019

Interested to see the progression of MDA's rotation throughout the season. Still expecting to see danuel house as the first forward coming off the bench. Really not expecting Gerald Green in the game ahead of Danuel House.

Harden might request green ahead of House but I don't see westbrook sitting ahead of Harden as the first guard to get pulled off of a game.

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[NY Daily News] The NBA Just Began Its War Against James Harden

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