Next season's minutes predictions and total wins prediction

Half of me thinks a capable coaching staff and a cerebral PG will lead a huge improvement in winning the close games, at a minimum. I'm just cynical by nature and have a strong bias against Stone and Fertitta, so I don't want to join the meltdown around here when a huge amount of adversity inevitably happens or this team loses to Charlotte and Orlando back to back. The KPJ saga has shone some light on the fact that Stone was driving aspects of the team that we thought Silas was driving. I'll enjoy whatever happens over 30.

 

Last year the under was basically a lock, surprised the line is so high this season. Guessing it’s because we don’t have our pick so unless we’re at the bottom there won’t be tanking. As much as FVV over kpj is a massive upgrade, 32 seems high. We’ll likely have one above average starter with fvv and maybe one average starter with Sengun, but everyone else needs more time

 

He'll get some run situationally depending on matchups and such. The problem is that generally Amen or Cam are better guys to give minutes backing up the 2 and 3 spots, and Tari is a better guy to give minutes to backing up the 4 spot.

Amen and Tari in particular are really going to push hard for more than typical "bench player" minutes IMO.

Tate would be so much better of a player if he could hit his threes. It's just too hard to give minutes to any 6'4" player who shoots as poorly as he does, let alone on a team that already projects to struggle shooting from deep this season.

 

Don't you think Amen and Cam are even less inexperienced at shooting 3s in the NBA.

 

In Amen's case, his physical tools are miles better than Tate's--taller, longer, far more athletic--and he also brings high-level playmaking to the table. I'm not convinced Tate will be more impactful defensively or that much better of a shooter given his talent level so far appears to be around 29% from three in the NBA.

With Cam it's a little more questionable/situational. I think he'll be a better shooter and a better offensive player than Tate, possibly even as a rookie. But they're both probably on the outside looking in for regular, every game bench minutes. Probably depends on matchups and the game situation. I think they'll both probably play in about half of the games this upcoming season and both will normally get limited bench minutes when they do play.

 

Both are going to be semi stars in the league or starters.

Tate is always going to be a glue guy but right now he is ready.

 

I don't think the Rockets can survive with just FVV/Amen at point - FVV will miss games, and Amen can't play 48 minutes of point. So the Rockets will need a 3rd pg.

 

Predicting win total for this team is a total crapshoot at this point. We haven't even had a glimpse how they look. No idea about how the pieces fit. New Head Coach with a total of one year HC experience... Top talent rookie coming from a church league... I have zero idea of what we are.

If the team coalesces and gets traction around Fred and Dillon, and if some of the young talents make a decisive step forward, this very well could be a 0.500 team

But if the shtshow continues with Stone meddling, mixed agendas like Green trying to inflate his numbers for the extension, Stone forcing playing time on Amen for "development", no accountability for lazy defense, etc. etc., we'll be stuck in the gutter.

(re-posting here, it was in the wrong thread...)

 

what about:

 

Aaron Holiday??

 

Yeah, that's why we signed Holiday. If FVV goes down he'll get a lot of run and we'll run the offense primarily through Sengun when Amen is on the bench.

 

How many mins per do you foresee Amen earning this season?

EDIT (Reads 1st page) ~ 27. I like that, but also hoping that gets upped into the 30s.

 

Not going to be James Edward Harden or Damian Lamonte Ollie Lillard Sr.

 

Yeah, my reasoning for saying 27mpg is that I think he will start lower and earn more playing time as the season goes on. I would imagine Udoka starts out mainly using him as the backup point guard but as injuries happen and Amen adjusts I bet he will start getting more minutes backing up the 2 and the 3.

 

Earning? Zero, if FVV and Holiday are healthy.
But they'll give him unearned minutes most likely, like they did with KPJ and Green... hopefully he won't be a complete disaster

 

Thompson's defense alone will earn him mins under Udoka..

 

I suspect his shooting will have a lot to do with where his minutes come from.

If he's shooting sub 30% from distance, that's gonna limit him.

If he can shoot ~33-35% from distance, he's going to get a lot more minutes, possibly some with FVV.

With KPJ likely out of the picture, they are awful thin at the 2 spot. Green is the only one on the roster listed as a SG.

 

...continuation

26 wins

Rockets will/can have a top 10 defense, unfortunately our offense will probably not be good
or as good as our 3-pt shooting takes us (30th - 27th ranked).

Teams will end up defending as a quasi man-to-man that is actually a zone pack the
paint.....force the Rockets to be a predominately jump shooting team.

 

...continuation

26 wins

Rockets will/can have a top 10 defense, unfortunately our offense will probably not be so good
or as good as our 3-pt shooting takes us (30th - 27th ranked).

Teams will end up defending as a quasi man-to-man that is actually a zone pack the
paint.....force the Rockets to be a predominately jump shooting team.

Something we ain't.