Haha, you literally beat me to it by 5 minutes. Would have repped you, but I gotta spread it around...
While unquestionably Ruiz has the higher ceiling, Fontana a lot going in his favor that tips the scales in his favor. -Projection or lack thereof: Fontana is a very advanced player who projects to reach the bigs inside of 3 years. He's the only draftee starting in full-season ball. He's starting three affiliate-levels above Ruiz. -Floor: Widely considered to be at worst a big-league utility infielder. -Position: plays short-stop, a more premium position. Can't base everything on ceiling-projection. Otherwise Ariel Ovando would have been our top prospect the last few seasons.
You have to rep a certain amount of different people before you can rep someone a second time. Keeps people from repping the same people over and over.
I can understand the reasoning behind putting Fontana at #10. Putting him in Lexington instantly puts him on the fast track. I'd have put Nick Tropeano there, but I'm not the one that's widely regarded as an expert on these matters.
Even disregarding the draftees, there's a lot of discrepancy between Sickel's and Callis's lists. Sickels elevated Cosart nearly 30 spots in his rankings and Callis dropped Cosart behind DDJ and Santana. Trope is another guy they seem to disagree on.
I expect NiTro to be the best pitcher of the bunch, and think he belonged at #10. One really nice thing is that our top 10 covers: 1B 2B SS 3B (Correa, Ruiz was probably #11 based on him comparing him to Fontana) SP CF RF You fielded almost an entire starting 9, with LF missing, but the easiest position to field, plus catcher, which is harder to field, but our former top prospect is a 25 year old catcher in his first full season.
Don't forget JD Martinez, our starting LF in his first full season. I think he'll be a solid starter down the line. The thing I love about Springer is that if he sticks in CF then he opens up a lot of position flexibility else where. With his power in CF, we can afford to put a non-traditional player in a corner spot. Someone with a great hit tool and low power like Paredes at 3B or Austin Wates at LF. Though til now, I hadn't given it much thought how the DH position will re-define hitting roles.
Reading over the list again, its amazing how much better our system is now than 4 years ago. Our 11-20 now is arguably as good or better than our 1-10 from 4 years ago. Callis's list left out a ton of talent. 11-20 probably includes: Rio Ruiz Nick Tropeano Ariel Ovando Paul Clemens Brett Oberholtzer Brett Philips Jio Mier Ross Seaton Telvin Nash Austin Wates
Certainly more potential than there was before. There is also a handful of other decent prospects beyond those. Of course that is what happens when you stop getting rid of talent, and start bringing it in with full force.
My Top 10 (Note: Comparisons are based off potential only) 1) Carlos Correa- 1.1 pick, has crazy upside and power potential at a premieum position. Ceiling comparison- Alex Rodriguez 2) Jon Singleton- Has potential to hit for high average and power can be our #4 hitter for years Ceiling Comparison- Joey Votto 3) Jarred Cosart- Cosart over Springer? What? I'm higher on Cosart than most people just because I belive he has ace potential and that's what Houston needs over no 3 guys like Jordan Lyles. Ceiling Comparison Josh Beckett 4) George Springer- Having a great season Lancaster. Hits for power and average but needs to cut down on strike outs. Ceiling Comparison- Matt Kemp 5) Lance Mccullers- Probably blows out everyone in our organization in terms of pure stuff (besides Cosart) but it's just a matter of wheather he can stay healthy and improve on his command Ceiling Comparison- Felix Hernandez 6) Nick Tropeano- The comparison may shock you, but if it's true that he throws a mid 90s fast ball with one of the best change ups in the minor leagues with his breaking stuff not lagging to much behind he might become a great pitcher. Ceiling Comparison- Tim Lincecum (gasp!) 7) Delino DeShields Jr.- He might have to move to center field because Altuve looks like he's here to stay. But he is probably the second fastest player in the minors anANCan hit for 10-20 hr a year with good average and on base skills. Ceiling Comparison- Andrew Mccuttchen? 8) Mike Foltynewkiz- Repeating a level but has a great era his strike out rate isn't good but he's getting wins and not allowing runs. Ceiling Comparison- Can't really think of one maybe Jacob Turner 9) Jonathan Villar- Stull really raw but has crazy talent. Ceiling Comparison- Jose Reyes 10) Rio Ruiz- Don't know too much about him but from what I read if he stays healthy he can be a steal. Ceiling Comparison- Eric Chavez Honerable Mentions: Vincent Velazquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Jio Mier, Brett Phillips, Adrian Houser, Nolan Fontana, Ariel Ovando
While I appreciate your enthusiasm, those ceilings are shooting for the moon. Oberholtzer = Clayton Kershaw? Jio Mier = Derek Jeter? Nolan Fontana = Craig Biggio? Ariel Ovando = Barry Bonds?(pre-Steroids)
Interesting list, thanks. I think you put a huge emphasis on potential/ceiling without regard for level or floor. You were very bullish on the new draftees. Excluding the draftees, I think your order is pretty good. Though you are way higher on Cosart and lower on Villar than I am. You bumped DDJ, Trope, and Folty ahead of Villar when they're two levels below him. In the cases of DDJ and Folty, they're both repeating the level. I gotta take issue with that; Villar is holding his own in AA at the age of 21. And he had just as much of a monster June as DDJ. You're waaaay more bullish on Singleton than I am. No way in my mind that Singleton becomes the single best hitter in MLB. I think a very reasonable ceiling for him is Fred McGriff. I actually expect an Adam Laroche-like career with a better average. In addition to ceiling projections, floor and mid-point projections would really give your list a full sense of the players' future. But otherwise, strong work man. Repped.
Singleton ceiling? Berkman Villar? Jimmy Rollins Correa? Tulowitzki/Ripken DDJ? Ricky Henderson lite George Springer? Curtis Granderson Cosart? I like the Beckett ceiling McCullers? Verlander Folty? Brandon Webb
Those are pretty good comparisons. I still think people are way too bullish on Singleton. Until he makes a huge jump forward, his advanced stats shows nothing to indicate he'll have that much power. Berkman was a career .300/.400/.550 player with a career isolated slugging % of .249. In my book Puma is a HOF-caliber player without the counting stats. McGriff and LaRoche's career iso percentages were .225 and .213. Singleton: his highest single season iso % to date is .196. At this point I just can't project him being anything more than a solid above average 1B who will have a few occasional seasons of 30+ HR. I think his typical stat line will be a .280 BA with 20-25 HR. Votto btw, has an isolated slugging percentage of .282 this season.
