Also, does anyone have trends, systems, line movements, etc. they follow? On a given night out of all the games i pick the weirdest lines and play the opposite. If a high majority plays that one team and line still stays low, I'm playing the opposite team. For ex. Houston -1.5 versus the wizards (over 70% on the rockets) I'm playing wizards. Wiz win outright. Golden st -1.5 versus Minnesota (over 70% on GS) I'm playing minny. Minny lost by 1. That's just a couple of examples, but in the end, you win more than you lose. I used this method in picking Marquette and seton hall tonight. Would love to hear how every One picks and chooses their games.
What started off as a good day turned into a bad night really quick, lol. Let this be a lesson for all of us that you should resist the temptation and urge to bet on all games and should probably stick to one or two solid plays a day. I shouldn't have even touched those last two games, but got greedy. 2-3 today and 5-4 overall in this thread. Good job tonight. I don't follow college bball well enough to feel comfortable making any plays. As far as a system, I do a combination of things... analyze player matchups, look at rotations, team trends, injury reports are the most important imo in bball, some statistical analysis, and situational factors. I never know how reliable that info is on who people are betting on, but I take that into account as well. Obviously something is up if the "public" is pounding one team and the line either doesn't move, hardly moves, or rlm occurs. The problem is that there are nights when the "public" wins. The Atlanta game tonight was a prime example of that. Then after synthesizing all that info, I try and simplify it and predict who's going to win first and then determine if there is value in the line. The problem with me is staying disciplined and sticking to the system. I get impulsive sometimes, which is what happened tonight. I had no business betting on those two late games and should've stuck with the early games, which I felt strongly about. But the action junkie in me got the best of the situation.
^^^ What Kwame said as far as making picks is pretty much the same approach I take, except I was too lazy to type it out :grin:. Fading the public is usually a good blind strategy, but you definitely have to be careful... the 'public' MURDERED the books a lot of weeks in NFL/NCAAF this past season... more than I've ever seen. It may have been an anomaly, or it could be the books manipulating the many casual bettors who think of themselves as 'sharps' because they look at covers.com percentages and always take the contrarian side. Also, like Kwame said, unless you're a bookie, know a bookie well (someone you trust), or know someone who works the desk at a major book, you can't really trust sites like covers.com to give accurate numbers on the public side. Do you know the bookie well that you recommended to Ricksmith? If so, you should try asking him about his handle on games... if he's super lopsided (amount of $$$, not necessarily amount of bettors) on one side and NEEDS the other one, Vegas is probably in the same situation (not counting games involving local teams). He probably won't mind telling you if he has any big needs, and if he's being honest with you, these are GREAT spots to pound.
Were you at Barley's? If so, it's not your fault. There'd be absolutely no way I'd be able to stop myself from action betting ANYTHING and EVERYTHING if there was a microbrewery with a (legal) sports book near me. Not a chance. :grin:
8 games in the nba today and I'm only taking Brooklyn. Kind of see this as a reverse trap where Vegas gets you and wants you to pound the hornets with this line. NBA Brooklyn (+2.5) And in college, I'm taking Minnesota (+5) to cover against number one indiana. Minnesota has been playing like crap as of late and need a win bad. Majority of people are on Indiana, because public love to pound rank teams. The first game they played, Indiana led by 23 at the half and the lead almost went up to as much as 30. Minny came back and only lost by 7 to cover the spread (+8). Minny has revenge on their mind and when you put a desperate team in need of a win and with revenge on their mind, it usually works out more often than not. Gonna be a close game tonight. College Minnesota (+5)
A lot of interesting lines for tonight's games, but so far I'm only going with Indiana -8. May add Chicago -8.5 if Hinrich plays and Clippers -9 (1st half) depending on how the earlier game goes. Edit: Added a parlay of Bulls ML and Under 186 and also added LAC -9 (1st half). As far as the GSW game goes, at least one of us will win, lol. Curry is on fire.
Great night for you again! Still perfect in this thread at 5-0! :grin: Didn't feel strongly about GSW, but couldn't stop myself since the game was on local TV here. Can't believe the Cavs won @ CHI without Kyrie... didn't see that one coming. Not only that, but they actually cleared 100 pts. Unreal. Oh well, live to fight another day! Lots of games tomorrow.
****, just saw the thread now And you can count me to check the posts over here repeatedly everyday IMO need to be sticky as well
Won my fake bet today on freesportsbets. Took the under in Mavs game. I want to start betting for real but I want to use a Vegas bookie.
Welcome, fellow degen! LOL I knew someone that actually made enough to cash out on that site... I think it was like $250 or something, but it took him forever to get there. What do you mean by a Vegas bookie?
I'm thinking a high scoring second Half on the clippers game, but don't want to play. Gun to my head, clippers and over (95) second half.
I'm sorry, don't know how I missed this part Yeah he gives me his needs from time to time and I play according to what the line tells me. It's still 50/50 when he tells me, cause there are several factors. (region, if you're from Houston, of course majority of bet will be for texans), injuries, and other stuff you have to factor in. But yes the information he gives me, wins more than it loses so in the end, the book always wins in the end.
Ahhh gotcha... that takes a lot of discipline, certainly more than I have... but Kwame manages to do it, he's in Vegas.
