I hope Rick Dennison gets a head coaching opportunity elsewhere and that Gary, either through force or increased self-awareness, brings in an outsider (ie outside the Denver pipeline) to be his new OC. Offensively, this team needs to evolve. They can absolutely bludgeon 75% of the teams in the NFL with a power running game that chews up the clock and doesn't beat itself. But elite QBs have rendered time of possession irrelevant. Your best bet in the playoffs, where there’s an elite QB around almost every corner, is to score points. The four winners this weekend scored 30, 38, 41 and 45 points. You're simply not going to win many 17-13 slugfests against the likes of Brady, Manning, Rodgers and/or Brees. I think Gary realizes this (Schaub threw as many first-half passes as Brady), and I think Gary has excelled at fixing problems previously. But I’ve yet to see him fix a problem by going outside the parameters of his system. I think a fresh perspective could help this offense progress. To that end... the time has come to find another offensive playmaker. I'm not sure why Foster regressed in this area - but as currently constructed, they don't have a single player capable of consistently breaking games open. Owen Daniels is a very nice tight end – but he needs to go back to being the 3rd or, more often, 4th option on plays. And this can’t be a project; they can’t enter 2013 with question marks in this area. They need to create cap space and find a legitimate speed threat that can catch a football. If they're allowed to hit the market, they need to kick the tires of Bowe, Jennings and Wallace. They need to find Pierre Garcon/James Jones types – players with big upsides that are buried on depth charts. For a team with plenty of needs, this feels like an absolute top priority. Lastly, I hope Gary and his coaches, internally, are honest about Matt Schaub. I don’t think they should chop up the 2012 season and pretend the first 12 games didn’t count. But I also don’t want them to be blind to an obvious regression the final 6 weeks. Over a 16-game stretch (the final 4 of 2011 and the first 12 of 2012), Schaub’s line was: 325/504 (64%); 3,944 yards with 26 TDs, 10 INT, 97.3 QBR and 7.8 YPA. Team: 15-1 You will win *a lot* of games – playoffs included – with *that* QB. But over his final six games of 2012 (including playoffs): 147/220 (67%); 1,551 yards with 3 TDs, 5 INT, 82.2 QBR and 7.1 YPA. Team: 2-4 Those are 2006-David Carr numbers. I’ve watched every one of Schaub's games since 2007, and he played the final six games like an abused QB that had been rendered gun-shy by 12 too many hellacious hits (which he wasn’t). He looked short, he looked quick and he played like his internal clock was going haywire. In the two playoff games, his YPA dropped to 6.8 – 1.1 yards less than his career average as a Texan (7.9), and well below his peak year in just 2011 (8.5). Even Phil Simms noted he was unnecessarily rushing his throws. Phil Simms! I know a lot of goofballs are going to pile into the thread and shout about him not being a winner, etc. – but he’s *never* played as ineffectually as he did the final six games. Yes, he has made mistakes in critical moments previously – but that’s not the issue for me. He’s never looked overwhelmed by the moment like he was down the stretch this year. Those too-quick check-downs to his plodding TEs and FBs were the mark of a wildly different QB afraid to make a mistake. Even if the answer is ultimately, “He just needed to get his feet wet and have this experience” – you can’t be blind to the fact that you might - *might* - have a QB who shrinks from the big moment. Plan accordingly.
The question becomes. . . WHAT CHANGED?!?! He did not take any mega hits that recalled Fans did not 'turn' on him until later in fact .. . he was getting mega love. . . . I can only conclude that it was GARY in his ear!! I have said for a long time .. . Gary needs to cut the cord Free Schaub . . . . Rocket River
Yeah, from what I've seen Schaub's regression has a lot to do with the offensive philosophy that has being coached since his injury last season. Over reliance on our best players to substitute no even trying to get production from our 2nd and 3rd stringers in the last quarter of the season. The only guy they seemed to try to get to step was Posey, but they lack of new looks made this game something the New England defense was ready for because they probably practiced and watched film. Meanwhile, I hope that the team is smart with its signings and the Posey injury doesn't make them stupid and grab a WR early given Schaub and the offense aren't likely to use them early on to begin with. So many position of need if only for quality depth, I wouldn't waste our picks on anything but the BPA unless it is on the offensive line because we are stocked with potential players there.
When I hear people say Schaub needed the experience to get better, even I have to laugh. He's 32 years old. He's a 9 year veteran. He isn't going to get better. We just have to hope he doesn't get worse. I don't buy into the "shrinkage" thing, but I do buy into the concept that, shockingly, he's just not good enough to carry a team when things aren't going well. He might have been good enough a few years ago (2010 comes to mind), but clearly he isn't anymore.
If the Matt Schaub you and I have (hopelessly) defended in this forum had shown up the final six weeks... this is a radically different season. They certainly win the one game they needed to secure the #1 seed. So it's not about him getting better - the hope is that maybe he'll handle the pressure better and not succumb to it. But you and apparently disagree with how he handled it this year. IMO, he did not play like the same Matt Schaub that stood in the pocket and delivered huge throw after huge throw against the Broncos (as just one example).
So... am I the only one that noticed in Matt's "bad" games, the rest of the team played like microwaved ass? High pressure/national spotlight or not, the Texans as a team didn't show up for those games. Matt is not good enough to overcome this (at least not anymore). It's not about shrinkage. It's about talent. I'd believe it was shrinkage if Matt was the reason we lost these games, but he wasn't. Everyone shrank, and he shrank right along with them. I'm of the opinion now that we need a QB that is the reason we win games, instead of "not the reason we lost". Unless Kubiak can somehow turn the running game into a bulldozer again and Wade's inevitable decline doesn't happen, but I'm not counting on that Even if these things come true, it's a passing league that is dominated by dynamic quarterbacks or elite signal callers that orchestrate high tempo offenses. The rules have changed, it's not 1997 anymore. We need to adapt, either by system or by personnel. Or both.
He certainly looked mediocre against the Bengals when the rest of the team was gashing. Again, for me - he's had bad games or moments before. This looked different. He looked terrified to make a mistake. He's never been a check-down guy; he's never been afraid of throwing downfield... I absolutely agree with you.
Well, as the season wore on, the pressure mounted. He all of a sudden became very cognizant of the fact that he was the leader of this team, and if we were going to the Super Bowl, it was on his shoulders. I'm wondering if Kubiak keyed in on the fact that he was obviously pressing, which is why the play calling became significantly more conservative as we went down the stretch. Schaub allowed the moment to get too big for him, and Kubiak was stuck game-planning with a quarterback who had buckled from the pressure.
Do whatever u can when Johnny football comes out for the draft Idc what year that might be...perfect replacement for schaub
Funny... I was watching 2011 highlights today and specifically took note of Foster's spectacular catch-and-run efforts in Tennessee and Tampa Bay. It just doesn't look like he has that explosiveness anymore. Can't remember the last time he's made a big play in the passing game, and it's not like he doesn't still get opportunities in space.
Your post about the lost 2011 season needs to be taped to the front door of the Texans' lockerroom. And Hey Now's post about the lost 2008-2010 stretch needs to be taped to Kubiak/Schaub's forehead.
MUAHAHAHAHA Hilarious! HeyNow should be BANNED even if he summons up enough audacity to mention Schaub and elite, in the same sentence.
He's had a few, but that number has definitely gone down. 84 targets in 2010, 71 in 2011, 58 in 2013. Likewise, his averages in the receiving game went way down as well. Could be a combination of him not being effective with the ball so they went away from it. Or it could be the playcalling where he got the ball didn't give him much opportunity to do something with it. Feels like when they gave him the ball in the passing game this year, it was either behind the line on screens or checkdowns when there were no other options and not much room to move on the defense. I don't know. Something changed.
Really agree with this part. We've always said that our #2 WR is actually our #4 option after WR1, TE1, and RB1 respectively. I think that needs to change. TEs usually aren't game breakers and don't have the ability to turn a 10 yard crossing route into a 70-yard TD. That's the kind of big play potential we are missing. Kubiak needs to have more 3 and 4 WR sets on throwing downs and less double TE sets. More potential playmakers on the field and less possession receivers.
I'm wondering how much of that has to do with Baby Shanahan leaving. the play-calling certainly seemed much more liberal 2 years ago when he was running the offense. I just don't know where the lines are drawn in terms of offensive scheming and play-calling, and to me, seems a bit worrisome. We know that Kubiak LIKES to take on a lot of responsibility, but we also know that he's not necessarily the best when it comes to handling all that responsibility.
I agree that we were in dire need of a vertical 3- or 4-wide game in December/January. But it goes beyond Kubiak scheming and calling those sets. Schaub simply can't accommodate that vertical game. It's just who he is - he has one of the worst deep balls in the league. He's dependent on the play action giving him a target so wide open that his low velocity loft balls won't matter. There's no way he could send frozen ropes 30 yards down field. It's frustrating, but Schaub's arm limits up to living off the boot and west coast type throws with multiple receivers.
Let me state this emphatically because I know it to be a fact: Kubiak calls every play. Always has. Nepotism was obviously the biggest factor Kyle left, but just below it was Kubiak's control.
I think that's a very old school way of looking at it. And this offense, at least initially when Bill Walsh created it, was built on getting a player in space and YACing. To me, that's the kind of playmaker they need. I guess Percy Harvin is potentially a free agent? The Vikings will never let him hit the market - but he's *exactly* what they need. The good news: Keyshawn Martin was obviously selected to fill that role so Kubiak at least values it. But he needs to find a playmaker that will make plays, not a playmaker with potential. Scheme-wise, I think Kubiak needs to evolve and tweak - if not outright eliminate - the run to the open spot in a zone and sit routes that turn our WRs into possession receivers. And he needs to tweak his crossing routes that too often have our receivers running to the sidelines instead of up the sidelines.
