"My contract with the Astros is not eternal" Next week, Altuve is likely to look for a more

No, it is obviously a team effort. It just so happens that Springer was the most valuable during the WS.

 

Nobody will argue that point.

Springer is a great player, and we would all love to have him long term.

But the financial choices we will likely be forced to make in a few years will require some tough calls. Pragmatically speaking he simply doesn't have the overall value of Altuve and Correa.

 

I can agree with that. That stated, I think he isn't as far behind as others are portraying.

 

So what you are saying (for which I have bolded) is that he will likely be more affordable than Correa and Altuve assuming they stay on current career trajectories. There was a trend of great players signing extensions prior to free agency about 4-7 years ago that ended up with a lot of the greatest players in the game not hitting free agency after their 7 club controlled years (technically 6+ years, but teams rarely have players hit 6 years even of club control at the end of the year). Agents seeing all these great players on contracts with surplus value have been pushing their clients to free agency.

Jason Heyward is probably the biggest position player to hit free agency in the last 4 years. Man, the increasing shifts have killed him. Correa, Altuve, and Springer all will likely be valued more if they stay healthy and on current career trajectories. Springer will be a little older, but offense ages more gracefully than elite defense. Altuve and Correa will blow the doors off Heyward's and JD Martinez's AAV (23 and projected 26 MM AAV, respectively) if they reach free agency healthy and at what they are expected to do. I'm guessing Harper gets about $50 MM AAV next season and gets close if not exceeds $500 MM.

Astros best chance to keep both Correa and Altuve is to sign them (or at least one of them) to extensions this offseason. Pragmatically speaking, if Altuve and Correa both reach free agency, Astros likely go with the more affordable option on one of them.

 

JUST PAY THE MAN

 

And I am pretty sure everyone on this board agrees with that. Your original post I was responding to seemed to indicate that Springer was a priority because they don't win the world series without him. While that is most likely true, many players fit that same comment so they can't make decisions to sign players based on who they don't win the world series without.

 

That's actually the one reason that I think keeping Springer may happen.

I think we will almost assuredly sign Altuve. If Correa stays on the megastar path, and the Astros simply come to an impass prior to free agency, they may move on from Correa. Bregman provides us with a possible SS fallback. Maybe we turn our eyes to locking him up and holding on to Springer. Possibly even trade Correa for a quality team controlled 3B instead of just letting him walk and trying to replace him in the aggregate.

There are quite a few way I could see this playing out in a few years.

 

Keeping a productive middle infield is certainly the priority if at all reasonable.

You can always find hitters to play 1B,LF,RF,DH. Maybe they don't provide great production relative to that position, but if you have a SS and 2B providing big offense it make it immensely easier to build a good offense.

 

What we have to pay for TOR and top Relief pitching in the future will have a great bearing on how much money can be spent keeping position players.

 

Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker are going to impact our needs in a major way. It will be very interesting to see their development next year.

 

I hope so. But thinking historically, ive long ago lost count of how many guys I thought this of and ended up as busts or succeeded on another team.

Just saying we cant bank on any players future success, much less let naive assumptions guide future team-building strategy.

 

Of Astros prospects that have been ranked as high as I expect Tucker and Whitley this year over last decade or so:
Correa
Bregman
Springer
Martes
Reed

Astros shouldn't bank on any one prospect performing well. There is a very good chance Astros get at least one very good player out of Tucker and Whitley.