http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1colpv/iam_the_houston_rockets_gm_ama_playoffs_edition/c9iizxu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance Ok statistics folks, what is Morey talking about here and how can we do it? I think what Morey means is create situations that have a less predictable outcome. http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278524 In the game where we beat OKC, we gave Thabo open looks and forced him to try and beat us. This would be an example of a scenario with alot of variance. Of 87 attempts by OKC, Thabo attempted 16 shots and made 11 of them. WB attempted 20 and made 8, Durant attempted 13 and made 4. Morey would probably be ecstatic if Thabo/RW are taking 41% of the teams shots and Durant is only taking 15%. An outcome with more variance and therefore a greater chance of an upset.
Definition of variance: Where μ stands for the average and X is whatever your actual sample is. I'm pretty sure he means a different μ though, cause increasing variance would mean scoring 80, 120, 75, 130 points each night. And the game where we beat OKC, it wasn't so much the game plan to leave Thabo open, but Harden was playing a lot of help D which resulted in Sefolosha being wide open way too much. My guess is that Morey means to say to force OKC to have other people score, rather than relying on Durant or Westbrook.
Exactly. Having a higher % of your shots be 3s will create the most variance. Ironically, I think our fast pace works to lower our variance. More possessions means a higher sample size, which decreases our chances of hitting a higher % of our 3s than normal. Lowering our possessions to 80 or so per game and increasing the % of 3s taken from about 30% of possessions during the regular season to 50% in the playoffs would greatly increase our variance. Clogging the paint and forcing the Thunder to shoot 3s would increase their variance as well.
Seriously, whatever Morey says, does it really make a difference? If McHale hasn't learned by now that ISO's and small ball kill us in the 4th quarters of close games, why would he deviate from that now? Lin and Parsons, and perhaps Greg Smith too, should have a secret meeting in some stall somewhere in the TC, and commit to running a separate "plan B" gameplan if these games come down to the last 3 minutes or so.
Well funny thing is Thabo had career high with elite shooting (11/16). I take Sefolosha open shot vs. having Durant shot any day, but that was far from the reason the Rockets won. When you can get 75pt from your backcourt on 63% shooting & 87% from the line, the likelihood that your team wins is probably pretty high.
In laymen terms that means play the best defense on the two stars and force the rest of the team to beat us.
Basically, take a bunch of 3's that you hope go in, while packing the paint defensively and forcing them to shoot more 3's as well.
What he's saying is we can't just line up and beat the Thunder. We have to take calculated risks that may blow up in our face, but its the only way we can win. My first priority would be to limit Durant. Do whatever it takes to get the ball in someone elses hands and keep it there. Parsons stays on Durant the whole time, and when Parsons gets screened we double Durant, hope that Smith or Asik can limit the roller and that their 3pts shooters are off.
