Me, too. But I just wonder if that affects their final BPI rankings. They make the point that their BPI formula relies upon those Expected Wins as part of the calculation. Seems if Wins are artificially within a tighter band between teams vs reality, that it could affect the ordering of teams that the BPI standings produce.
I read an article and the guy who does these things stated that the estimated win totals are always on the conservative side. He admits that. The warriors are at 63 wins, yet they haven't won less than 67 in 3 straight years and are in year two with KD and haves added depth. I will say this the bpi is way to bullish on Boston. They won't win as many games as last year even tho imo there more talented and better off in the long run. They lost a lot of depth and replaced it with high upside young guys. And the rockets and Cavs are underrated as usual. Cavs at 49 wins or whatever is insane. The rockets assuming cp3 plays 70+ games as well as harden should win 57-62 games with ease imo. The rockets are built to crush team in the regular season. And if they get melo there a virtual lock for 60 wins.
That's only half true, right? It's conservative for no more than 50% of the teams. For the others he's being liberal and giving them more than they deserve Wins is a zero sum game when you allocate them to all teams I'm not talking about his Expected Wins as much as I'm talking about the article is focused on the BPI rankings that rely upon the Expextes Wins The Expectsd Wins are a tighter band. Teams are artificially packed together. It's just wrong to do that if you're going to later use that data in another formula. Doesn't matter if he admits it. He's just admitting to creating a formula that doesn't represent reality, and apparently by design it doesn't. If you artificially make wins between teams have closer gaps than you know for a fact will be wider gaps, then you are making the Win data less important in the BPI formula. It makes other criteria more important than Wins Just because someone says "I make Wins a tighter band so all teams are closer together" doesn't mean you should use those unrealistic Win totals in other more complicated formulas like BPI
It seems like predicted win totals follow a normal distribution, even though fat tail events are highly probable in an nba season. why is that?
Rockets used off-season and previous moves to get close/behind Warriors and are using them in a "Slipstreaming" effect. Warriors breaking the wind in front of the Rockets path and using a gravitational pull for a "Sling-Shot" effect. Possibly meaning the trade deadline to end of season as the final lap. "Shake-N-Bake" --Ricky Bobby
because their approach is flawed. There's almost no chance that 2nd best record in the league only gets 53 wins. Almost never happens.
