Morey on Ish Smith: 32 beautiful passes and 1 ugly one

When we get a superstar, we're going to want our PG to actually PASS it to him.

 

That to

 

I wonder how Morey tracks his passes, and if there is any way for us fans to get a look at that.

I have always wanted to track quality passes, it is exactly how I play the game and is the most interesting to me.

DD

 

Give the kid a chance. He's barely had any PT at all. If he doesn't make those shots and the team gets hurt, RA will pull him for Lee or (hopefully healthy by then) Lowry. I think he's just got the jitters. He was undrafted, managed to get a camp invite, and became a 3rd string PG, and all of a sudden starting.

 

Uh, that is exactly what I was saying.....

DD

 

If Ish Smith were Rafer Alston would we hate him?

 

The Rockets hire people that track all that stuff during the game. And probably go back over it after the games to track other stuff as well. They have databases full of all kinds of things. Morey has said, when asked what they track, "We track everything". Obviously, you can't actually track everything, but the Rockets probably get closer to it than any other team.

By the end of every game, there's an "advanced stats sheet" with all sorts of interesting details about what happened. Morey will pick out some numbers of interest and tweet them after games on occasion.

 

Durv,

You may not believe this but I am a serious stats nut.

The thing I have against other stats is I just don't think they convey enough of the story, and have always thought that I might like to model something that would be a lot more accurate.

The issue for me, would be the time it would take for the people to physically track the stuff, I am fairly certain as a game designer I could design something that is a hell of a lot more accurate than what is out there now.

But I would not be able to put in the time to put the data INTO the model.



DD

 

I would be very interested in your ideas for what basketball stats you think should be tracked. Possibly the Rockets would be as well (ideas-at-rocketsball.com, I think, is their email).

 

I think just looking at passing is a bit too narrow. Passing is for everyone else. The role of PG is to manage the game, the flow of the game, what plays are run, etc. A great PG = a great quarterback.

Even on the Spurs game, when Ish was in, the overall team played better, with better flow, less helter-skelter. So, Ish is NOT just a one-game wonder with a really bad Timberwolves team.

If you consider that Brooks probably got way more attention in practice than Ish, I have to imagine that Ish will improve much more now that he is the starting PG.

Unfortunately, shooting touch is not something we can expect him to improve on too much, at least short term. He can probably increase his shooting % from 20% to 30% with coaching and practice (ala Jason Kidd, though that took 10 years), but he will still be below average. That's why Nash and CP3 are such elite, as they have the true PG skill, but can shoot at high % as well.

 

As much as I like the Rockets, love them in fact, I would probably do it for myself and try to sell the data to all the teams....

:grin:

DD

 

Most of the board hated Rafer and wanted Brooks to start.

Now most of the board wants Brooks gone and Ish to start.

What's next?

 

The thing i love about Ish is even though his fg% is bad, he's able to create his own shot very easily. The last shot against the spurs he couldve easily made that.

 

The assist is a lame stat. I mean it's not useless, but it's a) so subjective and b) not an absolute measure of the passer, but a composite of the passer and the shooter. I can be a hell of a passer that gets the ball to teammates, but the teammates can't shoot worth crap.

I could've sworn I remember either watching in a video or reading that Morey and the Rockets don't care as much about assist numbers as they do about passes that lead to chances for a good shot. If I make a pass to you and you are in a good position to shoot it, but you brick the shot, they don't count that against me, the passer. They actually credit me with making an "assistable" pass. Again, I can't recall if this was Morey I heard saying this. I'd have to dig around to be sure.

There's a stat (in many mutations) called the "potential assist". This is an assist that leads to a shot, a foul, etc. Of course, it can be subjective, too. There was a study done a few years ago by 82games about the value of a potential assist over an unassisted shot and how much better the FG% is when the shot comes from a potential assist.

 

you mean when he got blocked?

 

Uh, no disrespect, but I saw your before-the-season-preview vid, and I'm compelled to say you likely lack the speed to be in place to make that pass. Jus' sayin'. Books and covers, though. I may be wrong.

 

The issue with assists is in micro the larger issue with stats in general in basketball. Sabremetrics and stat geeking in general in the US has been derived first and foremost from baseball, which feature a series of discrete events... 1 player either hits the ball or doesn't, throws it over the plate or doesn't, makes an error or doesn't. In basketball basically every advanced stat is muddled because it's not dependent on a single discrete event but influenced by actions that other players take on the court.

Even for something as simple as an assist, you're talking about a passer getting the ball to a player in position plus the next player executing with the ball. 2 players contribute to a single stat, that's of value primarily to only 1 of the players.

OP's post is pretty self evident, obviously any team that uses advanced stats is going to track a passer getting the ball to a player in good position, regardless of whether the next player executes with it.

But taking a step back for those who actually played the game keep in mind that the idea of a GOOD PASS is itself not a discrete idea. For example throwing the ball to Yao in transition while he's on the run is probably not a good idea... even a "good" pass is likely to clunk off his massive stone hands. On the other hand a bullet in the lane anywhere near Chuck Hayes is a catchable ball. Something that might have been a "good pass" to a prime Shaq could well be a bad pass to Yao. Does that mean every team has different criteria for a "good" pass based on every passer and every catcher in the league. Now we're wading even farther into subjective judgment on what's supposed to be objective statistical data.

It might seem unfair that a good pass + bad shot = no assist. But consider that the primary job of a playmaker is to understand your teammates. In a sense it makes perfect sense that you dont get that assist unless he scores. Not all players or plays are the same, you gotta know who can catch that good pass you throw and whether each guy on the roster can make that particular shot you set up for him. Great point guards not only know how to make a great pass but whether the guy can score off that pass before he throws it. It might even be influenced by how a point can "sense" if a particular guy is "hot" or how is confidence is. All that **** goes well beyond the advanced stat sheet.

From a very macro POV the way assists work is probably okay (in terms of value as a stat) and takes into many things that makes a great point guard great. Yeah obviously players are going to miss a percent of open shots so assists are going to be lower across the board for all PGs but remember that rewarding "potential" assists will in fact in some cases "inflate" the value of guys who can make passes but might not actually be as effective points in terms of judgment and knowledge in understanding how to actually get the ball where each guy needs it to score.

 

You are 100% correct, that pass is at least 10 years in the rearview mirror....lol.

DD

 

I HATE to compare the two because they aren't on the same level but for those who do, this is what the Rox will have to deal with and the question is...do you feel comfortable with Ish taking the crucial shot?

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/09/dallas-sags-off-rajon-rondo-for-the-win/

 

If he is open, he needs to take it. Good Or bad, that is how you build team Chemistry by trusting your teammates.

The worst thing that can happen is, he hesitates and it creates a poor shot or a TO, which is far worse than missing a open shot.

Hell look at Cbud, wide open 3's....