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Morey and PFs/PGs

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by awc713, Jan 22, 2014.

  1. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Well, there is Parsons.
     
  2. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    No doubt that is a steal. But they were talking a leading man.

    Can't see Parsons break into Bron, Durant or second tier Paul George, Melo or Pierce in prime territory just yet or ever.
     
  3. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    I don't want to get too deep into this, as I've done a lot of statistical research on this topic, but the crux of my thesis is this:

    - The only star PGs that win titles are those that aren't ball-dominant (Billups, Parker). Most of today's star PGs are ball-dominant, and are overall detriments for their team's ball-movement (one of the most important determinants for team success late in the playoffs)
    - The two most important traits in star players are shot-creation (for self and others) and interior defense (or rim-protection). The position whose stars most often lack both of these attributes is the PF position (see: Love, Griffin).
    - Offensive prowess by a star is determined by balancing actualized value (on-ball) with potentialized value (off-ball). Too much of the former has many detrimental effects to the team (many star PGs suffer from this) and too much of the latter also has it's downfalls (many bigs and off-ball wings suffer from this).
    - So basically, you ideally want your two stars to be a C and a SG/SF, with the latter being your #1 scoring option and the former being your best defensive player. Morey has probably looked into similar data.

    And in the past 20 years:
    12/20 (60%) of champions had a C as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    7/20 (35%) of champions had a PF as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    6/20 (30%) of champions had a SF as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    13/20 (65%) of champions had a SG as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    2/20 (10%) of champions had a PG as one of their 2 main centerpieces

    Compare that to the composition of the last 80 runner-ups of the last 20 years (4 per year - loser of finals, two CF losers, best record to miss the CF)
    30/80 (38%) of runner-ups had a C as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    39/80 (49%) of runner-ups had a PF as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    25/80 (31%) of runner-ups had a SF as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    24/80 (30%) of runner-ups had a SG as one of their 2 main centerpieces
    42/80 (53%) of runner-ups had a PG as one of their 2 main centerpieces

    There are a lot of determining variables in the champions category, including the presence of guys like MJ, Kobe and Wade dominating from the SG spot. That said, it's interesting to see how many more "good but not great" teams were built around PGs and PFs.
     
  4. Kiddsir

    Kiddsir Member

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    Survior's bias.
     
  5. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Since when are Gay and Batum "leading men"?
     
  6. Kiddsir

    Kiddsir Member

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    And don't forget Royce white.
     
  7. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Learn what advanced stats are. They'll help you.
     
  8. Razsan

    Razsan Member

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    Shouldn't the onus be on the one making the comment?
    I gave my stats...Lowry was a mediocre player for years from what I see

    But since I have a page up...their lifetime 36 minute averages are almost identical, even including this year's numbers.(Lin scores more has a better shooting % while having more TO's and slightly less assists) Also, Lowry has NEVER had a year where his 36 were at 19.6 and 8.3 like Lin had when he was in NY.

    There's no doubt Kyle is playing better than Jeremy this year but to say that he was never as good as Lowry is an opinion and a bad one at that.
     
  9. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    If we are talking Linsanity, the flash in the pan performance of Lin, than yes one could argue that Linsanity was better than Lowry. The thing is, Linsanity is not Lin and Lowry is much, much better than Lin. He was a much better defender, arguably just as good if not better a shooter later on, and much better passer than Lin has shown to be capable of. He was also a triple double thread game in, game out due to his rebounding abilities as well. Normal Lin (not flash in the pan Linsanity) is by far an inferior PG to Lowry.
     
  10. Razsan

    Razsan Member

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    You do realize that Lowry AVERAGES 3.7 rebounds a game lifetime and once again just because you "think" something and say it aloud doesn't make it a fact. There aren't ANY numbers that support your assertion that Lin is "by far" an inferior PG to Lowry. It took Kyle until his 7th season before he got to double digits in points. But don't let the facts get in your way of trying to hate on Lin and his fans.
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    Parsons and Batum are on similar levels as a player. They are the same age, but Batum has a lot more NBA experience.

    Rudy Gay is a journey man at this stage. He is doing well in SAC, but no one knows whether his production is sustainable.

    If we are talking about the worth of a player including their contract, I don't think there is a single team right now that will take Batum or Gay over Parsons when we consider cap hit.
     
  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Ok. But those were separate posts.

    'Gay, Batum, Draftees by Rockets' ,

    'Leading men as Bron, Durant'

    'Parsons as a steal and one of the few SF draft picks the Rockets did not give up'
     
  13. SuperBeeKay

    SuperBeeKay Member

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    no, both the eye test and the stat test says lowry is a way better player.
     
  14. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Lowry this year:

    - #6 in the NBA in Win Shares (behind KD, Bron, Love, PG and CP3. Ahead of Curry, Griffin, LA, Lillard, Harden, A.Davis, Dwight, Dirk, Melo etc...)
    - Also #6 in WS/48 (behind KD, CP3, Bron, Love and PG. Ahead of anyone else who qualified)
    - Top-5 in defensive win-shares at PG. He's back to being an impact player on that end.
    - ORtg/DRtg of 121/104. Very, very few players have a comparable disparity between the two.
    - USG rate of 20.2, which is one of the lowest for a starting PG in the league, (for reference, Westbrook's is 32.8, Curry's is 28.3, Irving's is 29.6 etc). This is especially incredible because he still fares very well in many flawed stats which are dependent on usage (i.e. PER)
    - Has a TS% of 58.8%, which is 2nd in the NBA amongst starting PGs (after I.Thomas), and 8th in the entire NBA amongst players with at least 1400 minutes. You can point to simplistic FG% numbers, but he's clearly one of the most efficient scorers at his position (and not unlike Harden, he shoots plenty of threes and gets to the line)
    - #3 in the NBA amongst starting PGs in A/TO. He protects the ball and still makes plays.

    Do I need to continue?
     
  15. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    That's fair.

    But neither Batum nor Gay are leading men on their team.
     
  16. iconoclastism

    iconoclastism Member

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    Nobie is correct though. Lowry and Lin's stats are somewhat similar. You have to also consider that Lowery is in his 7th year while Lin is in his 3rd. If you take Lowry's total games played and total games started divided by 7 years you will see an average 67 games played per year and 33 games started. Lin averaged 60 games played and 43 games started.

    If you take Lowry's 1st three years, you will get 120 played, 9 games started, averaged 22 minutes per game, 7.6pts per game, 3.4 assist per game, 3 rb per game, Fg% 42.5% compared to Lin's 3 years. you will see that Lin's a bit better.

    The question is what will Lin's stats be like if the next 4 years he is playing for a team like Toronto where he is one of the main players.

    Considering these, I will say that Lin has better upside and Nobie is correct in his assumptions.

    Logics and rationales like these are the reason why some people are more successful in life than some who knee-jerks his way through life.
     
  17. Razsan

    Razsan Member

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    What you need is comprehension.. I SAID and I quote... "There's no doubt Kyle is playing better than Jeremy this year"
    What I was disputing is...and I quote
    "Lowry is, was, and will always be waaaaaaaaay better than Lin"
    which just isn't true
     
  18. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Lowry this year > Lin for any prolonged stretch
     
  19. Razsan

    Razsan Member

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    Listen, if you want to compare a guy who's hitting his peak in his 10th year to Lin, who has a little over 2 full years of games, have at it.
    What Lin HAS shown since his youth is that he proves his detractors wrong time and again. As a Rockets fan you should hope that he does it at least one more time.
     
  20. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    Lowry is two years older than Lin, what's with the pointless exaggerations?

    I want Lin to succeed for the sake of our team, but don't get frustrated when people bring up numbers after you pointlessly put down Lowry to up Lin.

    Most of the "detractors" you speak of are brought about by such things...
     

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