[Media Conspiracy] ESPN projects Rockets 2nd in West

I keep seeing this narrative of us giving up "nice pieces" for CP3.

What a load of crap. none of those players were even worth 1st round picks this summer and that was according to these media dumbasses themselves.

 

I like that backhanded hype. Makes us a destination willing to take big risks...

 

I wonder where he ranks the team who got those "nice pieces" and who just gave up "a really good PG"

 

yes you can, they dont though

 

Hasn't Riley heard?

No need to worry about Houston, we have a known quitter.

The stains are everywhere.

 

Who said those are the conditions to win championship? You just came up with those yourself.
The owner of last 20 NBA champions are white, is that the reason why the Rockets didn't win in last 20 years?
Whether the star was drafted by the team does not determine if they will win. Heat(2011-2014) centered around Lebron James not Wade. Boston was winning nothing until KG and RA went there.

 

The owners of the last 20 NBA champions are white, It means the red, blue, green owners are having less opportunity to win the championship this year, statistically.

You need get facts right. Heat was built around Wade when he was in Miami, not LeBron. Boston was built around Paul Piece for years, not Garnett or Allen.

 

So if warrior owner sold his team to a non white owner they suddenly have little to none chance to win it all this year? Some factors are determining factors some are irrelevant.
Yes Celtics were built around PP, but there were a non factor for years and years until KG and RA showed up. Heat were several years removed from their last championship, everyone can tell you that was lebron's team. Heat fell apart as soon as Lebron left them.

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...gs-every-nba-team-2017-18-season-kevin-pelton

New NBA projections: Updated W-L records, standings for all 30 teams

How might the 2017-18 NBA season play out?

For the third year in a row, we're using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) along with my projections for rookies and guesses at playing time to rate teams heading into the season. We initially published RPM projections in August, but have updated them since then for injuries, transactions -- including trades involving Kyrie Irving and Carmelo Anthony -- and rotation changes.

Additionally, we've also run those projections through 2,500 simulations of the season to account for the differences in schedule between teams in the East and West and account for the uncertainty about our projections for each team. So for each team we've listed the average wins from those simulations as well as the percentage in which they made the playoffs. We'll also compare to other statistical projections to see where they differ. Let's take a look, starting with a certain team from the Bay Area.

Spoiler

Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 62.6
Playoffs: 100 percent

While RPM rates the Warriors as far and away the best team in the NBA, their projected record still falls short of the over/under line for their wins (currently 67.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). RPM's projection is in line with FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections, which peg Golden State for an average of 63 wins.

2. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 54.8
Playoffs: 99 percent

After adding Chris Paul and filling out their bench with quality defenders Luc Mbah a Moute and PJ Tucker, the Rockets rate as the NBA's second-best team by both RPM and CARM-Elo, which projects them for 57 wins.

3. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 51.2
Playoffs: 96 percent

The Spurs finishing with 51 wins would be a drop of 10 from last season and their lowest total in a full season (not counting lockout-shortened 2011-12) since going 50-32 in 2009-10, when we thought San Antonio's run was coming to an end. Whoops!

4. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 49.6
Playoffs: 92 percent

Adding Carmelo Anthony didn't dramatically change the Thunder's RPM projection, although it did bump them into fourth in the West. CARM-Elo rates Oklahoma City better, projecting an average of 54 wins. That's closer in line with their Vegas over/under 53.5-win total.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 49.0
Playoffs: 91 percent

Yes, the Timberwolves have a history of underperforming lofty preseason projections. However, this is their strongest yet; RPM hasn't projected more than 44.3 wins for Minnesota in the seven seasons that I've rerun it, and this is an improvement of more than 10 wins over last year's 38.1-win projection.

6. LA Clippers
Projected wins: 48.3
Playoffs: 88 percent

Add CARM-Elo (46 wins) to the long line of projection systems that put the Clippers in better position than outside observers. The Clippers' total at Westgate has gone up because of action on the over, but is still only 44.5 wins.

7. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 46.6
Playoffs: 78 percent

CARM-Elo rates the Nuggets even higher than RPM, pegging them to finish with an average of 49 wins. While Denver often gets lumped in with Minnesota as teams projected to make a leap, it's worth noting the Nuggets went 29-22 last season in games Nikola Jokic started at center (not counting the eight games he started with Jusuf Nurkic) -- a 46.6 win pace.

8. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 43.4
Playoffs: 55 percent

RPM projections make the Jazz the slight favorite among the three teams potentially battling for the eighth and final spot in the West, though the possibility of other teams slipping out of the playoffs means more than one of them could make it. CARM-Elo puts Utah even with the Clippers (both behind the Nuggets) and has the Jazz making the playoffs in 67 percent of simulations.

9. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 42.7
Playoffs: 48 percent

To wit: While Portland is on the wrong side of the cut line in the West according to RPM projections, the Blazers still reach the playoffs in nearly half of all simulations.

10. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 42.1
Playoffs: 44 percent

The Pelicans aren't far behind. Losing Rajon Rondo to sports hernia surgery slightly improved New Orleans's RPM projection.

11. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 34.5
Playoffs: 4 percent

While Memphis has exceeded expectations in the past, the Grizzlies haven't projected so poorly since the early days of the Grit 'n' Grind era. The 2009-10 season, when Memphis went 40-42, was the last time the team's RPM projection was worse than 39 wins.

12. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 33.5
Playoffs: 3 percent

Surprisingly, CARM-Elo's projections put the Mavericks 14th in the West, ahead of only the Kings. Given Rick Carlisle's coaching and the talent still on hand, that kind of outcome would likely require serious injuries and an eye toward draft positioning.

13. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 32.2
Playoffs: 1 percent

The Lakers should be much more competitive with the arrival of Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Brook Lopez. Still, a return to the playoffs is almost certainly at least a year away.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 28.7
Playoffs: 0 percent

After winning a combined 47 games the past two seasons, the Suns are likely to improve a bit by virtue of internal development, although the incentive to get a high draft pick the year before lottery changes kick in could be strong.

15. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 27.1
Playoffs: 0 percent

Both RPM projections and CARM-Elo have the Kings with more talent than the Hawks, but still finishing with the league's worst record on average because of the West's strength relative to the East.

 

Spoiler

Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.3
Playoffs: 100 percent

CARM-Elo forecasts a wider gap at the top of the East than past years, with the Cavaliers averaging nine more wins than anyone else in the conference. Of course, because one of those other contenders will exceed expectations, Cleveland wouldn't necessarily run away with the conference even if that proves true. But it looks like Cavaliers could finish first in the East even if home-court advantage isn't a priority.

2. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 48.5
Playoffs: 99 percent

RPM projects Milwaukee as the most likely up-and-coming East team to mount a run at the top seed. The Bucks finish atop the East in nearly 20 percent of simulations, an outcome that would probably make Giannis Antetokounmpo an MVP frontrunner. The CARM-Elo model doesn't rate Milwaukee nearly as well; the Bucks' 44 expected wins rank sixth in the East on average.

3. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 47.5
Playoffs: 98 percent

Because the core returns intact, the Wizards are in some ways the safest bet in the East. However, injuries are a concern given the strength of Washington's starting five and the weakness of the bench.

4. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 45.0
Playoffs: 95 percent

There's no team on which RPM projections depart from conventional wisdom more than the Celtics, whose over/under is 54 games. Because ESPN's Basketball Power Index relies heavily on those lines to set preseason ratings, Boston's BPI is tops in the East. CARM-Elo's projection lands somewhere in between, pegging the Celtics for 47 wins on average -- the second-best projection in the conference.

5. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 45.0
Playoffs: 95 percent

While the loss of Rodney McGruder to a stress fracture hurts Miami's depth, it means more minutes for players projected better by RPM (primarily Josh Richardson) and allowed the Heat to jump from seventh in average wins to fifth. Because all three teams are so close, that difference isn't especially meaningful, but the divergence from how CARM-Elo projects Miami (40 wins on average, eighth in the East) is.

6. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 44.7
Playoffs: 94 percent

Statistical projections generally agree the Raptors are due to regress after winning 107 games over the past two seasons; the question is just how much. Both RPM projections and CARM-Elo have Toronto winning around 45 games on average, landing it in the middle of the East pack. BPI has the Raptors landing between 47 and 48 wins.

7. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 44.4
Playoffs: 93 percent

The loss of Nicolas Batum dropped the Hornets to seventh in the East in projected wins, but they still look like a strong playoff bet because of the decline after them. They make the playoffs in 85 percent of CARM-Elo's simulations and 80 percent of the time in BPI.

8. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 36.1
Playoffs: 41 percent

While RPM and CARM-Elo project the Pistons similarly, there's a big discrepancy in how they rate the rest of the conference, resulting in Detroit ranking 10th in average wins in CARM-Elo.

9. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 33.5
Playoffs: 21 percent

Because of their young, injury-plagued talent, the Sixers are perhaps the toughest team to project this season CARM-Elo has Philadelphia winning an average of 40 games, and BPI (inspired by their bullish over/under total) 42. A .500 finish is well within the realm of possibility if Joel Embiid stays reasonably healthy.

10. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 33.2
Playoffs: 18 percent

CARM-Elo gives Orlando a much better chance of a surprise playoff run, with the Magic reaching the postseason in 48 percent of simulations.

11. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 32.7
Playoffs: 16 percent

Unlike other East teams that traded All-Stars this summer, the Pacers figure to remain competitive, although a playoff run without Paul George remains a long shot.

12. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 31.0
Playoffs: 9 percent

Much like the Lakers, the Nets should be much improved this season (sorry, Cleveland fans) but have a long ways to go to actually become competitive. This being the East, however, a playoff run can't completely be ruled out.

13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 30.8
Playoffs: 8 percent

New York's two teams could be trading places in the standings all year long. They're separated by 0.2 wins on average in RPM projections, a win in CARM-Elo simulations and a relatively lopsided two wins (in New York's favor) by BPI.

14. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 30.7
Playoffs: 9 percent

Statistical projections give the Bulls a much better chance at not being terrible than conventional wisdom. (Chicago's over/under is for 22 wins, the league's lowest mark.) While there's some talent here and losing Dwyane Wade didn't really affect the Bulls' RPM projection at all, I'm inclined to agree with conventional wisdom on this one.

15. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 28.3
Playoffs: 3 percent

The Hawks have the weakest projection by both RPM and CARM-Elo's model, although that's partially because of the lack of truly awful teams on paper. Two teams had RPM projections worse than Atlanta's last season, for example.

 

The computers recognize Mauri's dedication to math.

These will certainly be buried by the on air talent

 

Wait, is there actually a projection system called CARM-elo?

 

What I love about all of these ESPN.com projections is they use metrics to at least have a baseline.

These projections are generally IGNORED by ESPN TV personalities and they interject their own flawed logic. On ESPN last night in a video package regarding teams that could challenge GSW, I was told by Wilbon that the Rockets aren't a superteam and that OKC was because it check the box of having "3 Stars." Wilbon analysis!

 

"Look, everyone knows that the ancient prophecy clearly said 3 Thunder stars.
It's right here, see the 3 squiggly lines in the right column.



This is much more objective analysis than those silly computer games that Morey plays."

-E!SPN

 

all this conjecture means nothing if we keep winning

 

if all the personalities did was read whats on the list then what would be the point of them?

 

They point is to CONSIDER items on the list. Like, have that DATA be PART of the package. Might make them more credible. How about some synergy between the journalism and tv discourse. Is that too much to ask? I guess so.

 

2nd seed? LOL. We wont beat the spurs in the playoffs

 

Yes!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/