Measuring Lin's scoring consistency (as well as that of other Rockets)

Just give Lin the fricken ball and let him play as a PG

the team will do better and the other players will probably put up just as good numbers... but being more efficient while doing it

if you have him bring up the ball and dump it off at the 3 point line looking to shoot 3s


then what do you expect... Lin is a average SG who will give you 12 or 13 points a night as a SG but he will not make as good of an impact without the ball in his hands...

 

I absolutely can't stand nor do I believe in this notion that he doesn't get the ball with the chance to create and dominate like has done recently. He will never have as many opportunities to control the ball here as he would on certain other teams, but he does get ample chances to do what he is capable of, he just doesn't always do it.

There is no rational explanation as to why anyone would tell him not to do what he's been doing recently.

You know what is a rational explanation? He's still an extremely young player and young players tend to be inconsistent and make mistakes. Similar to a lot of players on our extremely young team.

No doubt that if we hold on to him that we will begin to see more consistency as he and the team grows together.

 

he wants the ball? He is going to have to get it from grabbing defensive rebounds and pushing it up fast. So far that's the only time he gets his, if his 3s are not falling.

 

That's fair. I don't really think it's his point output either. To me it seems like he's either hot or cold in the flow of a game. In the past four games he's played more aggressive and confident (hot). No idea why, but I dig it and hope it continues.

 

That's just not true. Unless you think "gets his" means 18-20 shots a game.

 

I will give Lin fans this. They are the absolute masters of over exaggeration.

McHale ALWAYS benches Lin after a mistake.

Harden NEVER passes to Lin and when he does happen to pass to anyone it's ALWAYS with 3 seconds or left on the shot clock.

Now it's Lin ONLY gets the ball on defensive rebounds and catch and shoot 3 point attempts.

Madness.

 

How about measuring his at rim scoring, turnover rate, fouled rate, etc.?

Also, his inconsistent minutes may be due to his inconsistent performance. In other words, using per minute production may skew the fact that a certain player getting inconsistent minutes exactly because he is inconsistent.

Of course, this just bags the question whether the coach is fair to Lin. And we are back to square one.

Again, props for the great effort, and it debunks some myths. But it only shows one aspect of the game and it might not be the most important aspect for the Lin debate.

 

Think about it this way. If I have a player shooting 3 times vs. a player shooting 100 times per game. Over the course of 30-40 games, the per game TS% of the guy shooting 3 times could be all over the map.

The TS% of the guy shooting 100 times would be more likely to cluster around his actual TS% each game.

The TS% of the guy shooting 3 times per game can vary significantly more. It's more likely for the guy shooting 3 times per game to get 100% FG and 0% FG.

Haven't had time to calculate the actual effect of this. Like what if it's 20 FGA compared to 10 FGA.

 

Those are somewhat strawman arguments, but yes Lin fans do have the habit of making excuses.

That said, on the first point against McHale. Lin's performance (TS%, +/-) has the highest correlation to his minutes than any other team member. So the tight leash idea has some merit.

 

last game Bev was basically doing what Lin has been doing many games this year...

bringing up the ball and dropping it off at the 3 point line

only difference is Bev was dropping the ball off to Lin and he was allowed to initiate the offence

its funny how fans of other teams can see how Lin is being used... but long time Rox fans dont see it...

here is thread a few months back where many posters are fans of other teams... started to talk about how Lin was being treated

disregard the topic tittle ... and they are making points most LOFs are making too

 

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1282549

 

It's only to make the point. Yes he is going to have to score some because otherwise the defenses will ignore him. But there are some games where he is wreaking havoc without scoring or getting an assist. It's because he drives hard and scrambles the defense and passes it out, then the guy passes it to another player for an open 3. Lin doesn't get credit for that.

Sometimes he scores because he just gets fouled or hits a J catch and shoot. I think that has value but not as much as when he breaks down a defense.

When picks up his dribble on a drive and passes out, I think that does more to hurt the team even if it does lead to an assist. Because that type of play isn't really making their D work and isn't getting the offense flowing in a way that builds confidence in the team.

Basketball is a rhythm sport. A player can make the entire team pass the ball effectively because the opposing Defense scrambles. When that happens players start to feel more confident and move with more pep and make better decisions.

When your point guard is struggling against a defense, it puts more pressure on everyone else to do something.

That's why a lot of the tough teams we face attack the primary ball handler whether it's Harden or James. That's why we have Bev pick up the opposing point guard at half court - it's all about attacking the guy who sets-up the offense.

A pg's role is more than to bring the ball up and more than to get assists. It's to identify the overall weaknesses of the defense and understand how to create the right opportunities. That's why you see Lin holding up his hand to call the play.

If any player is an extension of the coach, it's the point guard.

 

Right, you are saying the SD of the estimator is going to decrease with more samples which I agree ... But the SD value used in the definition of Shake does not depend on the number of samples ...

 

His consistency seems to vary based on minutes played.

 

Use him as a sixth man, not the sixth choice！

 

McHale should have left him out there with the unit that was clicking. As soon as he took that unit out the 5 pt lead swelled to over 20. McHale needs to drink himself to a stupor this St Patty's day then resign as the head coach. Who ever the Rox get as a replacement would be a sure improvement.

 

As long as Harden is on the court, this will never, ever happen. LoF's need to stop hoping for this because it simply won't happen. Lots of us Rockets fans recognize that Lin is better when playing PG. The thing is, that's not the role we have for him on our team. As a ROLE PLAYER, it is LIN's job to either improve his weaknesses to fit the role of a SG when Harden is playing point or wait until he finds another team that is more willing to let him play point.

 

I have come to the conclusion that Lin's TO's AND the way he hands of passes at the last second that lead no NO SHOT or a fumbled ball by the other player, are his biggest deficits. I see no improvement in regard to any of these by Jeremy Lin. His stopping in the lane and rotating around leads me to believe that TO OFTEN he has no clue what he is going to do next, which creates roll off chaos in the players around him. This to me is his biggest deficit and why we need an upgrade at point guard.

Appreciate the thoughtfulness that went into all this, but it only paints half the story. To often his hero ball only shows up with insane play when it's desperation time.

 

A simpler way to look at this: When Lin plays 24 minutes or more per game (i.e., half the game or more), he averages 15.3 pts/5.4 asts and shoots 47.6% from the field. The team's record in those games is 28-14. He's consistent when given an opportunity and has made a positive impact on the win-loss record. Another way to look at it is how he does and the team does when he takes 10 or more shots per game. Over the 2 years he has been with the Rockets, his shooting % is around 47% and the team's w-l record is about 8-10 games over .500 (or better).

The data are clear that the Rockets can win (and in fact do win) with Lin having more minutes on the floor and playing a big role in the offense. He does just as well playing with Harden as he does without him on the floor.

I think the Lin-Beverley discussion has been viewed generally as a zero sum game: if Bev's minutes go up, Lin's go down. That isn't necessarily the case across the board. The way to look at the issue, in my view, is to see if having Beverley in the lineup vs. other players (not Lin) improves or diminishes the Rockets' chances of winning.

 

The minutes haven't been there this year like last because the rockets haven't been able to play consistent small ball with Parsons/ another at the 4. Last year Del fino was effective. This year we tried casspi but his D and rebounding was so terrible we had to stick with Dmo and Jones on the floor and that meant Lin was the casualty minutes wise because we needed more D on the perimeter.

Now that we've acquired jHamilton we can actually play a small ball lineup-especially w Asik back at the backup 5. Look to see Lin playing better because the Rockets are back to the offensive style they look best with the roster as is NOW.