Measuring Lin's scoring consistency (as well as that of other Rockets)

You could have a small SD ESTIMATE even with two points. It is the estimation that is off. It has nothing to do with the underlying SD or Shake. There are robust estimators if you care about outlier...

 

When you get jerked around in the rotation a lot, your stats are going to look inconsistent.

 

Percentile != percentage... Please check the definition of TS...

 

YOU CAN HAVE ALL MY REPS FOR EFFORT!

I had a hard time reading through it not because it's garbage but because it's so detailed. Too detailed in fact that repeatedly I lost concentration reading.

 

I think the conclusion is that he's pretty consistent...when he's not getting jerked around.

 

I never thought that inconsistent scoring was Lin's problem. Even in his bad games, he usually has at least 10 points on limited shots.

He just has some really bad looking turnovers sometimes that really stick out.

 

Lin is consistently mediocre and inconsistently brilliant. The real issue with him is that he's confidence and mental approach to the game isn't the same from game to game. So while his scoring may be consistent to his minutes, he overall game, energy, attacking style is more tied to his mental approach.

 

Interesting. That makes me believe that "inconsistent" is somewhat subjective to the viewer. If one expects Lin to be brilliant (or awful) every night he'll appear inconsistent. If one expects average play he'll seem more consistent.

That's a bit of a stretch considering we can pin down the definition of consistency pretty well but I like to illustrate how preconceptions and expectations can really skew things.

 

Feel free to take the data/method and add to your own thread. No method is perfect, there's always ways to improve. I actually did this a month ago for a different reason than evaluating Lin. I made the title, just cause I thought it was cute. Your thread just reminded me about it.

When Morey came out with the "we don't have a 3rd star" article, people thought that was an insult to Parsons. I did this to show that Parsons performance was closer to Lin than he is to Harden/Howard. The key take away from my analysis is, out of our top 4 offensive options, there's 2 role players and 2 stars. I didn't think that needed to be said, but there's too much homerism going on with Parsons.

 

If there's one thing Lin has been consistent on this season it's his jumpshot.

Another thing that's consistent is his shaky decision making and turnovers.

 

There is one thing consistent about Lin.

He's consistently not reaching his full potential in consistency.

 

I posted this before but I'll post it again. The biggest reason Lin is viewed as "inconsistent" is because he's stuck between two types of PG's: Athletic and Fundamental PG's.

Fundamental PGs: Kirk Hirnich, Luke Ridnour, Steve Blake. These are guys who have excellent ball handling, decision making, fundamentals and great shooting, but not overly athletic.

Athletics PGs: Derrick Rose, Westbrook. Guys who aren't as fundamentally sound but have the athleticism to put the team on their back and score at will.

Then you have guys like Lillard and CP3 who are a mix between fundamental and athletic who can do both of those things.

Lin doesn't fit in either of those two categories. Not fundamentally sound, and not overly athletic. He's a poor man's D. Rose but shows flashes of great athleticism and shooting.

Lin is what he is. An athletic PG but not incredibly skilled at one thing.

 

What I am saying it that on any given night you will have lin play brilliantly and put up big numbers but more importantly help the team win, and on other nights he will put up decent numbers and help the team win, but on a lot of nights, he will play mediocre and still score 10-13 points.

My point is that his contribution goes beyond points or whatever.

Consistent vs. inconsistent is how is he facilitating. He might not get an assist on the play, but if he is breaking down defenses and putting them on their heels it's going to open up the court for everyone else. He can put up 8 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds and still play really well. That's what a lot of people are failing to understand.

 

Yeah man, it's like he's only played two seasons or something

 

I don't think there's a good way to measure it - Sweet Lou brings up a good point with how he breaks down defenses when he gets dribble penetration... you just have to watch him play. Maybe you could find a way to measure points in transition, in my opinion that's when Lin is at his best. Some nights he really pushes the tempo and that's when he helps the Rockets the most. Other nights, he dribbles to the three point line and picks up his dribble.

I'm not going to provide statistical evidence because I'm not going to waste my time, and I'm not sure there even is any... anyone with an unbiased eye towards Lin can see that some nights he is constantly attacking as soon as he catches a pass on the perimeter or pushing the tempo as soon as the ball is inbounded, or constantly probing and circling the lane. Other nights, he looks completely unsure of what to do when he gets the ball, he picks up his dribble randomly, or he drives into the lane unsure of what he's going to do with it.

Even his coach made mention of it after the Cleveland game, he was praising Lin for his constant attack mode and comparing it to nights when he doesn't play as well.

 

I think its harder to be consistent when you are starter, then bench, then starter, then bench again. Also, bench players aren't allowed to "play through" as many mistakes as starters are.