McNamara, Senior at Syracuse, Any chance of drafting him?

dharocks · Mar 12, 2006

The Cat said:

It amazes me that people continue to look at 3-point percentage as the be-all, end-all stat when determining outside shooting ability. McNamara has horrible shot selection. Always has. He'll take a 25-footer if he has an inch, and routinely does heat check type shots. He's improved somewhat this year, but it's offset by Syracuse's lack of talent, which causes the focus of defenses to be on him and forces him to take some shots that he normally shouldn't have to. That said, if you actually watch his games, I think most would come to the conclusion that he's (arguably) the second-best shooter in the draft (after Redick). When he's open, his shooting is outstanding. He needs coaching and discipline, but his shooting is a huge attribute. Percentages in college are overrated.

I'd be surprised if he's a first round pick, but he's a solid second-rounder when it's all said and done, imo. Shooters like that don't come around all the time, and with a coach that teaches disciplined shot selection, he can be a quality NBA role player. Don't let the percentages fool you... that's one of the biggest flaws in draft analysis in recent years. There are a lot of factors that go into those numbers.
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College 3P%s for NBA Players shooting above 40% from 3PT range this season:

Bruce Bowen .283
Rip Hamilton .378
Jason Terry .374
Chauncey Billups .382
Raja Bell .350
Mike James .329
Ben Gordon .423
Kyle Korver .453
Matt Bonner .395
Antawn Jamison .296
Jameer Nelson .365
Steve Nash .401
Mike Miller .345
James Posey .329
Delonte West .377
Ray Allen .448
Jason Richardson .383
Bobby Simmons .331
Shane Battier .416
Sam Cassell .396
Derek Fisher .380
Wally Szczerbiak .431

(It should be noted that B.Bowen, R.Bell, M.James, A.Jamison, J.Posey, and B.Simmons were poor 3PT shooters early in their NBA careers)
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It would certainly appear that college 3PT percentages are generally pretty good indicators of how well a player will shoot at the NBA level. Since someone mentioned Steve Kerr earlier in the thread, I'll post his, and several other great shooters' college 3PT percentages (I couldn't find Tim Legler's):

Steve Kerr .573
Glen Rice .480
BJ Armstrong .443
Wesley Person .441
Reggie Miller .439
Hubert Davis .435
Dana Barros .431
Allan Houston .424
Steve Smith .416
Kenny Smith .408
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Personally, I think looking at a player's college 3PT shooting percentages is a good way to project how well they'll shoot at the NBA level. I'm not overly impressed by the fact that guys like Reddick and McNamara have horrific shot selection, bringing down their shooting percentages. There's no telling whether someone who doesn't have a complementary player's mentality will be able to succeed in that role.

Driven · Mar 12, 2006

The Cat said:

It amazes me that people continue to look at 3-point percentage as the be-all, end-all stat when determining outside shooting ability. McNamara has horrible shot selection. Always has. He'll take a 25-footer if he has an inch, and routinely does heat check type shots. He's improved somewhat this year, but it's offset by Syracuse's lack of talent, which causes the focus of defenses to be on him and forces him to take some shots that he normally shouldn't have to. That said, if you actually watch his games, I think most would come to the conclusion that he's (arguably) the second-best shooter in the draft (after Redick). When he's open, his shooting is outstanding. He needs coaching and discipline, but his shooting is a huge attribute. Percentages in college are overrated.

I'd be surprised if he's a first round pick, but he's a solid second-rounder when it's all said and done, imo. Shooters like that don't come around all the time, and with a coach that teaches disciplined shot selection, he can be a quality NBA role player. Don't let the percentages fool you... that's one of the biggest flaws in draft analysis in recent years. There are a lot of factors that go into those numbers.
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I'm saying this as a Syracuse fan who has watched every single Syracuse game this season...

Gerry McNamara is not a good shooter. He is not a good decision maker. He does not have good athletic ability. He is not a good defender.

RocketManJosh · Mar 13, 2006

McNamara is going to fall back into the overrated category after A&M dominates him and Syracuse!

Driven · Mar 13, 2006

RocketManJosh said:

McNamara is going to fall back into the overrated category after A&M dominates him and Syracuse!
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Except that's not going to happen, but whatever.

hashmander · Mar 13, 2006

dharocks said:

Bruce Bowen .283 (6-7)
Raja Bell .350 (6-5)
Mike James .329 (6-2, closes to g-mac's situation coming out, but he's plays tenacious D and has good athleticism and he had to go to the minors for quite a few years before getting a shot)
Antawn Jamison .296 (6-9, drafted as a power forward)
Mike Miller .345 (6-8)
James Posey .329 (6-8)
Bobby Simmons .331 (6-6)
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and none of the guys who shot 35% or lower were drafted (or are in the nba) just for their shooting, they brought more to the table. basically, none of them were 6-1 combo guards who can't do anything other than throw up shots.

Personally, I think looking at a player's college 3PT shooting percentages is a good way to project how well they'll shoot at the NBA level. I'm not overly impressed by the fact that guys like Reddick and McNamara have horrific shot selection, bringing down their shooting percentages. There's no telling whether someone who doesn't have a complementary player's mentality will be able to succeed in that role.
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exactly. there is nothing wrong with looking at a players 3PT shooting percentages in college where the line is much closer, ridiculously close. the spot on the court where t-mac does that insane step-back 360 that always seems to go in is about where the college line is.

The Ming Dynasty · Mar 17, 2006

Driven said:

Except that's not going to happen, but whatever.
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Don't you look like Einstein! ROLMFAO

Driven · Mar 18, 2006

The Ming Dynasty said:

Don't you look like Einstein! ROLMFAO
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Well maybe if McNamara wouldn't have broken down emotionally and actually played.

I'm so pissed off at him right now it's unreal. I'm so glad his tenure is done in Syracuse.

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McNamara, Senior at Syracuse, Any chance of drafting him?

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