McGrady & Yao: Enough to Make Rockets NBA Title Contenders?

Going by my personal observations of the games in that stretch with T-Mac and Yao, I'm not surprised by the results.

- T-Mac and Yao are two of the most underrated defensive forces in this league. Yao is a very intimidating post presence (despite the fact that he doesn't block as many shots as some other centers do), and T-Mac is one of the best one-on-one defenders you'll find. So it is not at all surprising that their presence together gave the defense a significant boost.

- Even though T-Mac was back, he never was quite 100%, and anyone who watched him play knew it was quite evident -- his reluctance to take it to the hoop, the way he came down at times, etc. Combine that with the fact that we still had a shooting deficit among our role players (thus allowing teams to get away with double teams). This also demonstrates the fact that even though Yao was incredibly dominant, the team did not benefit a lot from it because practically every time he passed, it resulted in a brick. A one man show isn't going to help a team's offensive efficiency ratings. So it definitely makes sense that they were able to upgrade the defense significantly, but the offense wasn't really that much better because of the inability of role players to convert open opportunities.

So why were we winning at such a torrid pace? Confidence. Just having T-Mac and Yao on the floor definitely gave the rest of the team a much needed shot of confidence knowing that they *could* win. And the presence of those two in the 4th quarter did give us a much better chance at winning games (those who followed the team closely know that they did not get blown out often -- there were a lot of games that were close up until the 4th quarter, and they just didn't have the depth to pull out the win most times. That's directly a result of their defensive efficiency (hence their high defensive PPP ranking).

It would be particularly interesting to see how the team's defensive PPP in that stretch compared to the rest of the season.

 

nothing can be said for that stretch as the sample size is way too small.

 

Good work, helpful read, admire your time and effort in innovative analysis, and appreciate your well thought-out conclusions.

One factor that is missing, though, and is absent from any statistical analysys and important for us all to remember as we are hoping for the best of health for our 2 Rocket stars, is that we have yet to see the new, aggressive, in-your-face-and-at-the-top-of-his-game Yao, like we saw in the second half of this last season, playing with the fire-in-his-belly-take-over-a-game-and-will-to-win McGrady like we saw season before last...!

Now, Rocket friends, trust me...if we can see that, the possibilities for us are limitless!!!

 

superb job! graphs are very clear and I find it sooo easy to read. Thx for the information. It does help me find some confidence back.

 

I'm going to have to agree with Van Gundlier, Tango. I think it's harder to analyze a true PG. Alston is a true PG, so his efficiencies are dependent on others, as for someone like a scorer, take James, is independent, since his efficiencies are solely based on himself. Basically, Alston can make a pass, but if they don't make the shot, it isn't an assist, right?

 

If the Heat's recent success with an older Shaq and a cast of misfit pieces past their primes and scrubbery can be any indicator...


Yes.

 

About the defense:

One of the things that Van Gundy complained about last year was having to use midget guards way too much. When McGrady was out, that became more of a problem.

With McGrady in the lineup, the Rockets get to play him at SF for most of the game and have Bogans split his minutes backing up SG and SF. Whenver Bogans is at SG, the Rockets manage to have a somewhat normal size matchup. With Tracy being a normal sized SF and KB being a normal sized SG.

When McGrady was out, Bogans started at SF and plays pretty much all his minutes there. Bogans himself is already somewhat short for an SF at 6'5'', but he holds his own. The problems are 1.The SG spot was manned almost exclusively by Wesley and Head, two severly undersized guys, and 2. when KB had to sit, Van Gundy ended up playing David Wesley for a good chunk of the SF time (after his pretty much lost faith in Ryan Bowen) ...

In any case, McGrady being out basically forced the Rockets to play undersized around the perimeter for the entire game, with McGrady in, at least the size problem is less severe... My theory is that the extra size issues presented by TMac's injury is what caused the Rockets D to drop when he's injured.

 

At least their misfits have primes to past.

 

Shouldn't it also be noted that last year Yao Ming and McGrady were never fully healthy when on the floor together? I would imagine that a late season Yao Ming from last year and a Mcgrady from two or, even better, three years ago would make the team more offensively efficient?

But, yeah, Battier and Snyder are not prolific but have been pretty efficient on offense so they will also help.

 

So, with a (somewhat) healthy lineup on the floor the Rockets where the best defensive team in the league. That sounds about right. I think you conclusion is wrong though, because it weighs offense and defense evenly. In the other thread I showed that there was more correlation between being a top defensive team and winning than with being a top offensive team and winning. Defense wins championships and the Rockets with McGrady and Yao were #1. I would say that makes them more than 1st round fodder. In addition to that, having guys going in and out of the lineup probably screws with team chemistry and all of the aspects of the game that depend on playing with somebody, like defensive rotations and ball movement. They would probably have done better if they got to use a single rotation over the course of the whole season. Generally the teams that are among the league leaders in # of starting lineups used are not the big winners on the season.

 

Not that I don't believe you, but 250 seems way too small to me, especially considering that all teams go on good/bad runs throughout a season for no apparent reasons?=.

Keeping in mind there was always someone injured, including Alston himself, I certainly don't believe a 19 game stretch in the middle on an injury plagued season is enough to accurately gauge every players impact on the team.

 

Tango,

Where your stats fall down is that they do not take into account the Yao that came back after the injury in dominating fashion.

THAT Yao and a healthy Tmac are MUCH better than first round fodder, espcecially when you add Battier and all the other new additions and if Sura comes back.

YAO OVER SHAQ IN THE FINALS BABY !!

DD