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Mark Melancon to Red Sox for Jed Lowrie, Kyle Weiland

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by The Cat, Dec 14, 2011.

  1. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    I like Lowrie, albeit with the 'if he can stay healthy' qualifier, but I think I could hit Weiland, and I'm old.
     
  2. T-Slack

    T-Slack Member

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    Thats good we got two mlb ready guys but we are in rebuilding mode, I would they trade for more prospects.
     
  3. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    You're not in the minority who think baseball is better than basketball, but yes you and I make up a minority of people who believe it is by far the best sport, even better than football. :(
     
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  4. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    There is at least 3 of us.
     
  5. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

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    Very small sample size on Weiland, Sox didn't do him any favors last season either. I think with a more stable environment and zero pressure, Weiland could be a big suprise next season and a nice upgrade over journeyman starters.
     
  6. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    MadMax says hi.
     
  7. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    I was waiting for you to chime in. Wasn't sure if the Texans performance this year turned you or not. :)
     
  8. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    There is a something about baseball which has continued to draw me in. NBA hoops does stir my passion, more than NFL. But, baseball? Yeah, there's a there there.
     
  9. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    I hope you're right. BTW - - I see him in a 7th or 8th inning role going forward, if used most effectively. Low ceiling, actually.
     
  10. Bear_Bryant

    Bear_Bryant Member

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    Here's how I watch spots

    College football>anything

    playoff baseball>Playoff basketball
    Regular season Basketball>Baseball.
     
  11. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Contributing Member
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    Football on professional level doesn't interest me anymore at all. Basketball usually brings the most passion out of me. But when it comes to a deep seeded appreciation of what the game is, it's history, and what it means, then baseball will always be the greatest. It doesn't arise the fiery passion that the NBA does, but always deep down in my soul there's a simmering love for baseball that will never go out.
     
  12. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    I love the big 3...but baseball is far and away my favorite.
     
  13. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    that's not healthy.
     
  14. Pipedream

    Pipedream Contributing Member

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    I certainly like the results last time the Astros traded a middle reliever to the Bosox for an infielder.
     
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  15. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Yep yep
     
  16. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    The guy had a 3.51 career ERA in the minors, with a similar FIP and solid peripherals, so I very much doubt it.

    People should not ever read too much into 24 rookie innings in the majors. Especially in the AL East in Fenway in the middle of a playoff race.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    [rquoter]Keith Law on the trade:

    Jeff Luhnow's first move as general manager of the Houston Astros wasn't a huge one, but it's a great deal for them and shows just how badly the club was mismanaged under Ed Wade over the last few years.

    Where Wade never seemed to get enough value in return for his tradeable assets -- how he sent half his roster to the Philadelphia Phillies without ever getting Domonic Brown is beyond me -- Luhnow converted a fungible, high-risk reliever in Mark Melancon into an everyday infielder in Jed Lowrie and a back-end starter/good reliever in Kyle Weiland.

    Melancon had a violent delivery that already led to one Tommy John surgery, but has been healthy over the four years since then with a cleaner arm action that still requires a lot of upper-body effort. His success in 2011 was largely due to a new cutter that keeps hitters from squaring up on his very straight four-seamer; the pitchers' velocities are very close, with the four-seamer staying up while the cutter breaks down and slightly toward a left-handed hitter. Melancon's cutter has also helped him become a strong ground ball pitcher, but his below-average changeup led to a moderate platoon split last season, especially in terms of keeping left-handed hitters off base.

    Yet even in a year when he threw 74 innings, a relatively high figure for a reliever under today's highly specialized regimes, and walked only 20 guys unintentionally, Melancon was worth under a win above replacement per FanGraphs' WAR. Lowrie alone will double that in 2012 just by staying healthy -- he's a fringy defensive shortstop who can stay at the position but will probably be slightly below average, excelling on the transfer but suffering from a relative lack of lateral range.

    Lowrie's a switch-hitter who has struggled from the left side in the majors -- .635 career OPS as a lefty compared to .919 as a righty -- although that wasn't helped by a fractured left wrist he suffered in 2011. His swings are similar, short to the ball from both sides, with more power hitting right-handed. He's also had a shoulder injury and mono keep him off the field, but a full healthy season from Lowrie in 2012 would, given the state of shortstop around the majors, be worth a couple of wins to Houston.

    As a starter, Weiland is 90-94 mph with his fastball without much life, along with a mid-80s slider, a hard curveball and a mostly-straight changeup in the low 80s with just a little fade. His command and control are fringy, and he'll have to work on keeping that fastball down, but he has enough ways to miss some bats that he could be a cheap fourth starter for the Astros for a few years, with the downside of an above-average reliever if he becomes too homer-prone to stay in the rotation.

    Unless the Red Sox know something we don't about Lowrie's medicals, this looks like a real loss of value for them. They've given up more production than they've received, and the ripple effect, pushing Daniel Bard to the rotation, is a high-risk move that I don't believe is going to work. Bard will have one of the lowest arm slots of any starter in baseball in 2012 -- Justin Masterson is lower, and Chris Sale (another conversion I don't see working out) is as well -- and as a fastball/slider guy with a pretty fringy changeup, he's going to have trouble against any team that can load its lineup with left-handed hitters. Bard might get by because, even as a starter, he'll probably be 94-96 or so with some sink, but he doesn't command the fastball as well as Masterson does and the arm slot/platoon issue is going to be a real problem. Letting Melancon set up Bard, or Bard set up Melancon, would be the better option, but this deal seems to signal the Red Sox are determined to push Bard to the rotation for the first time since he failed there in Class A in 2007.[/rquoter]

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog...os-get-best-boston-red-sox-mark-melancon-deal
     
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  18. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    Bump for Jed Lowrie update.... it appears that the Astros have avoided arbitration with him.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/astros-lowrie-avoid-arbitration.html

     
  19. everyday eddie

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    Same here, what a beautiful game.
     
  20. msn

    msn Member

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    Baseball has always been #1 for me.
     

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