After losses by Jazz, Rockets and wins for GSW, Lakers last night. Here are the new numbers for teams fight for playoff berths. We no long control our destiny for #6 seed. Unfortunately our magic numbers remain unchanged for #7 and #8seeds. Seed - Magic # # 7 ---- 19 # 8 ---- 18 Teams are fighting for playoffs (current standing): #6 GSW 35-27 Remaining games: 20 (14 home/6 away) Remaning Strength of Schedule (SOS): 50% (17th in the league) #7 HOU 33-29 Remaining games: 20 (12 home/8 away) Remaning SOS: 48% (22nd) #8 UTA: 32-29 Remaining games: 21 (11 home/10 away) Remaning SOS: 54% (4th) #9 LAL: 31-31 Remaining games: 20 (10 home/10 away) Remaning SOS: 49% (23rd) 03/07 ESPN (Holliger) Rockets 96.8 % Warriors 85.3 % Jazz 57.2 % Lakers 52.6% Basketball Reference Rockets 95.9% Warriors 95% Jazz 56.6 % Lakers 48.3% playoffstatus.com Warriors 98% Rockets 86% Jazz 65 % Laker 43% Blazers 5%[/QUOTE]
After one night of games, wrong on one projection. =) The j*zz are not going to make the playoffs! =) Green = Right Red = Wrong GAME-BY-GAME PROJECTIONS Projected 6th Seed WARRIORS Current Record 35-27 Projected Remaining Record 12-8 Total Record 47-35 W Wed, Mar 6 Sacramento Kings vs Sacramento W Fri, Mar 8 Houston Rockets vs Houston W Sat, Mar 9 Milwaukee Bucks vs Milwaukee L Mon, Mar 11 New York Knicks vs New York W Wed, Mar 13 Detroit Pistons vs Detroit L Fri, Mar 15 Chicago Bulls vs Chicago L Sun, Mar 17 Houston Rockets @ Houston W Mon, Mar 18 New Orleans Hornets @ New Orleans L Wed, Mar 20 San Antonio Spurs @ San Antonio W Sat, Mar 23 Washington Wizards vs Washington L Mon, Mar 25 Los Angeles Lakers vs LA Lakers W Wed, Mar 27 Sacramento Kings vs Sacramento W Sat, Mar 30 Portland Trail Blazers vs Portland W Wed, Apr 3 New Orleans Hornets vs New Orleans W Fri, Apr 5 Phoenix Suns @ Phoenix L Sun, Apr 7 Utah Jazz vs Utah W Tue, Apr 9 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Minnesota L Thu, Apr 11 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Oklahoma City W Fri, Apr 12 Los Angeles Lakers @ LA Lakers L Mon, Apr 15 San Antonio Spurs vs San Antonio W Wed, Apr 17 Portland Trail Blazers @ Portland Projected 7th Seed FAKERS Current Record 31-31 Projected Remaining Record 14-6 Total Record 45-37 L Tue, Mar 5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Oklahoma City W Wed, Mar 6 New Orleans Hornets @ New Orleans W Fri, Mar 8 Toronto Raptors vs Toronto L Sun, Mar 10 Chicago Bulls vs Chicago W Tue, Mar 12 Orlando Magic @ Orlando L Wed, Mar 13 Atlanta Hawks @ Atlanta L Fri, Mar 15 Indiana Pacers @ Indiana W Sun, Mar 17 Sacramento Kings vs Sacramento W Mon, Mar 18 Phoenix Suns @ Phoenix W Fri, Mar 22 Washington Wizards vs Washington W Mon, Mar 25 Golden State Warriors @ Golden State W Wed, Mar 27 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Minnesota W Thu, Mar 28 Milwaukee Bucks @ Milwaukee W Sat, Mar 30 Sacramento Kings @ Sacramento W Tue, Apr 2 Dallas Mavericks vs Dallas L Fri, Apr 5 Memphis Grizzlies vs Memphis L Sun, Apr 7 Los Angeles Clippers @ LA Clippers W Tue, Apr 9 New Orleans Hornets vs New Orleans W Wed, Apr 10 Portland Trail Blazers @ Portland L Fri, Apr 12 Golden State Warriors vs Golden State W Sun, Apr 14 San Antonio Spurs vs San Antonio W Wed, Apr 17 Houston Rockets vs Houston Projected 8th Seed HOUSTON Current Record 33-29 Projected Remaining Record 10-10 Total Record 43-39 L Wed, Mar 6 Dallas Mavericks @ Dallas L Fri, Mar 8 Golden State Warriors @ Golden State W Sat, Mar 9 Phoenix Suns @ Phoenix W Wed, Mar 13 Phoenix Suns vs Phoenix W Fri, Mar 15 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Minnesota W Sun, Mar 17 Golden State Warriors vs Golden State L Wed, Mar 20 Utah Jazz vs Utah W Fri, Mar 22 Cleveland Cavaliers vs Cleveland L Sun, Mar 24 San Antonio Spurs vs San Antonio L Wed, Mar 27 Indiana Pacers vs Indiana L Fri, Mar 29 Memphis Grizzlies @ Memphis L Sat, Mar 30 Los Angeles Clippers vs LA Clippers W Mon, Apr 1 Orlando Magic vs Orlando W Wed, Apr 3 Sacramento Kings @ Sacramento L Fri, Apr 5 Portland Trail Blazers @ Portland L Sat, Apr 6 Denver Nuggets @ Denver W Tue, Apr 9 Phoenix Suns vs Phoenix L Fri, Apr 12 Memphis Grizzlies vs Memphis W Sun, Apr 14 Sacramento Kings vs Sacramento W Mon, Apr 15 Phoenix Suns @ Phoenix L Wed, Apr 17 Los Angeles Lakers @ LA Lakers UTAH Current Record 32-29 Projected Remaining Record 9-11 Total Record 41-40 W Wed, Mar 6 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Cleveland L Fri, Mar 8 Chicago Bulls @ Chicago L Sat, Mar 9 New York Knicks @ New York W Mon, Mar 11 Detroit Pistons vs Detroit L Wed, Mar 13 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Oklahoma City L Sat, Mar 16 Memphis Grizzlies vs Memphis L Mon, Mar 18 New York Knicks vs New York W Wed, Mar 20 Houston Rockets @ Houston L Fri, Mar 22 San Antonio Spurs @ San Antonio W Sun, Mar 24 Dallas Mavericks @ Dallas W Mon, Mar 25 Philadelphia 76ers vs Philadelphia W Wed, Mar 27 Phoenix Suns vs Phoenix L Fri, Mar 29 Portland Trail Blazers @ Portland L Sat, Mar 30 Brooklyn Nets vs Brooklyn W Mon, Apr 1 Portland Trail Blazers vs Portland L Wed, Apr 3 Denver Nuggets vs Denver W Fri, Apr 5 New Orleans Hornets vs New Orleans W Sun, Apr 7 Golden State Warriors @ Golden State L Tue, Apr 9 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Oklahoma City W Fri, Apr 12 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Minnesota W Mon, Apr 15 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Minnesota L Wed, Apr 17 Memphis Grizzlies @ Memphis
After a loss by Jazz, wins by Rockets over GSW and Lakers win. We still don't have control our destiny for #6 seed. However we do own the tiebreaker over Warriors. Seed - Magic # # 7 ---- 17 # 8 ---- 16 Teams are fighting for playoffs (current standing): #6 GSW 35-28 Remaining games: 19 (13 home/6 away) Remaning Strength of Schedule (SOS): 50% (17th in the league) #7 HOU 34-29 Remaining games: 20 (12 home/7 away) Remaning SOS: 48% (22nd) #8 UTA: 32-30 Remaining games: 20 (11 home/9 away) Remaning SOS: 54% (4th) #9 LAL: 32-31 Remaining games: 19 (9 home/10 away) Remaning SOS: 49% (20th) 03/09 ESPN (Holliger) Rockets 97.9 % Warriors 79.7 % Lakers 55.1% Jazz 52.2 % Blazers 9.1% Basketball Reference Rockets 98% Warriors 92.7% Lakers 61.7% Jazz 42.5 % playoffstatus.com Warriors 96% Rockets 92% Jazz 54 % Laker 46% Blazers 8% Mavs 4%
Actually, that is incorrect. We do control our destiny for the 6th seed, since we are only 1 game back from the Warriors and we play them once more. We win that game we are tied with them and, since we own the tie breaker, that would actually put us in the 6th seed.
Exactly. We are 1 game behind, own the tiebreak, and have a game in hand against them. If we win out, we are 6th seed.
I guess if you look at this from GSW point of view. If they win against us, they have the control. Technically, they are ahead in standing and hold the edge to this chicken-or-egg-first debate. It's interesting that we have the same magic number for #7 and #8 seeds. What seed we end up with will depend on which team we are tied with. So far, we own the tie with GSW. However, if we lose to Lakers and/or Jazz for the final meeting (series will be 2-2), we will probably lose the next tiebreaker with our terrible conference record. Seed - Magic # # 7 ---- 16 # 8 ---- 16 Teams are fighting for playoffs (current standing): #6 GSW 35-29 Remaining games: 18 (12 home/6 away) Remaning Strength of Schedule (SOS): 50% (17th in the league) #7 HOU 34-30 Remaining games: 19 (12 home/6 away) Remaning SOS: 49% (21st) #8 LAL: 33-31 Remaining games: 18 (8 home/10 away) Remaning SOS: 49% (19th) #9 UTA: 32-31 Remaining games: 19 (11 home/8 away) Remaning SOS: 53% (5th) 03/10 ESPN (Holliger) Rockets 97.3 % Warriors 76 % Lakers 62% Jazz 46.7 % Basketball Reference Rockets 96.9% Warriors 91.4% Lakers 65.6% Jazz 38.3 % playoffstatus.com Warriors 94% Rockets 89% Laker 52% Jazz 50%
Great night for the Rockets fans. Jazz and Lakers both lost BUT GSW won. We still don't have control for #6 seed. With this seven-game home stretch, let see if we can to get it down to a single digit! Seed - Magic # # 7 ---- 15 # 8 ---- 14 Teams are fighting for playoffs (current standing): #6 GSW 37-29 Remaining games: 16 (10 home/6 away) Remaning Strength of Schedule (SOS): 49% (18th in the league) #7 HOU 35-30 Remaining games: 17 11 home / 6 away Remaning SOS: 50% (14th) #8 LAL: 34-32 Remaining games: 19 8 home / 8 away Remaning SOS: 50% (15th) #9 UTA: 33-32 Remaining games: 17 10 home / 7 away Remaning SOS: 53% (7th) 03/14 ESPN (Holliger) Rockets 96.9 % Warriors 88.5 % Lakers 58% Jazz 39.4 % Basketball Reference Rockets 96.8 % Warriors 95.9 % Lakers 71.1% Jazz 27.2 % playoffstatus.com Warriors 97 % Rockets 90 % Lakers 56% Jazz 45 %
We do have control of the 6th seed. We are one game behind GS in the loss column and we have another game with. If we beat them then they will have the same record and we own the tie breaker.
If Memphis can hang on to #3 and we can pull off the #6 spot, I think we'd really have a shot to get out of the first round. A clash of styles for sure.
Controlling your destiny isn't a mutually exclusive thing. Both the Warriors and the Rockets can and do control their destiny for the 6th seed. When people say that it's meant to state that you don't have to depend on other teams to lose to attain the goal. If the Rockets or Warriors win out they get the 6th seed so they both control their own destiny.
Here's the site where I got those numbers. Western Conference Winning Magic Numbers (link) Here's the explanation about tiebreakers and how they derived with those numbers: Table Sorting Method (link) "How are the teams sorted for display on the web page?" "Why is Team A listed above Team B when Team B wins this tiebreaker if the playoffs were to start tommorrow?" Hopefully the following comments will explain how and why we sort the tables as we do. First of all there is more than one logical way to sort the tables using games from a partially played season. Most of these will result is the same or very similar ordered table. But all methods sometimes for some leagues results in a list that does not "look" right. We do not sort the table based upon "if the playoffs were to start tommorrow". This would be the best method if all teams have played the same number of games. When this is not the case the resultant table often "looks" wrong. In addition, when using the league playoff tiebreaking rules to sort, our computer algorithms must use games from a completely played season. We sort the table using the probability numbers in the table. Using the NFL league as an example. Each division is first sorted by the probability of the team winning Spot #1 (highest to lowest). Ties are broken by using Spot #2, Spot#3, ... numbers. The division winners are then sorted by the same method. Wildcard spots are determined by sorting the remaining teams based upon the probability that they MISS THE PLAYOFFS (lowest to highest). Ties are broken by using Spot #6, Spot #5, ... numbers. This method seems to produce a sorted table that "looks" right most of the times. In general, teams with greater probabilities are listed higher in the table. The above sorting method often produces the same list as "if the playoffs were to start tommorrow". Exceptions occur when a team does not hold a tiebreaker but is listed higher due to its greater probabilities. It's greater probability due most likely to an easlier remaining schedule and more home games. (which is why some people prefer this method to the "if the playoff were to start tommorrow" method) The above sorting method generates the correct ordered list at the end of the season. The main point is that the probability numbers for a team are more important and is the main content of the site rather than its position in the table.
Nothing in this post has anything to do with what gmoney said. We control our own destiny for the #6 seed. I don't understand why you are struggling with this.
Not sure if this is thread worthy. This year's team as compared to last year. We are better offensively at every catagory except FT%. 2012 2011 (Offense) --------------------------------- #3 - #13 - Offensive Efficiency #1 - #9 - Points/Game #8 - #16 - Average Scoring Margin #3 - #13 - Points in the Paint/Game #6 - #14 - Team Shooting % #4 - #10 - Efficient Shooting % #4 - #13 - True Shooting % #6 - #13 - 2-point % #2 - #10 - 3-point % #17 - #4 - Free Throw % #1 - #9 - Points from 3-point #3 - #13 - Fastbreak Efficiency #2 - #10 - Fastbreak Points/Game 2011 2012 (Defense) --------------------------------- #20 - #15 - Defensive Efficiency (PPP) #29 - #12 - Opponent Points/Game #15 - #28 - Opponent Points in Paint per Game #26 - #18 - Opponent Fastbreak Points per Game #15 - #19 - Opponent Fastbreak Efficiency #22 - #26 - Opponent Points from 2 pointers #28 - #4 - Opponent Points from 3 pointers
It's not I am struggling with it. Those are the quotes or explanation from the source I linked. It's their way of derive with the magic numbers. You can send them an email with your questions. contact@playoffstatus.com
With five more home games coming, reducing the magic number to a single digit is within reach. If we beat the Warriors today, we will be sitting atop the 6th seed. Seed - Magic # # 6 ---- 15 # 7 ---- 13 # 8 ---- 13 http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernwinmagicnumbers.html Teams are fighting for playoffs (current standing): #6 GSW 37-30 Remaining games: 15 9 home / 6 away Remaning Strength of Schedule (SOS): 49% (17th in the league) #7 HOU 36-30 Remaining games: 16 10 home / 6 away Remaning SOS: 51% (11th) #8 LAL: 35-32 Remaining games: 15 8 home / 7 away Remaning SOS: 49% (21st) #9 UTA: 34-32 Remaining games: 16 9 home / 7 away Remaning SOS: 53% (6th) 03/17 ESPN (Holliger) Rockets 97 % Warriors 76.9 % Lakers 69.8 % Jazz 41.4 % Basketball Reference Rockets 96.6 % Warriors 90.3 % Lakers 75.2% Jazz 30.9 % playoffstatus.com Warriors 94 % Rockets 91 % Lakers 67% Jazz 38 %
After watching Indiana play, I have confidence we can beat them. We got the Warriors tonight which should be a tough one, but so far it seems like we have there number to an extent.
