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Magic Number for the Rockets against West Playoff Contenders

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ScriboErgoSum, Mar 12, 2008.

  1. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    Thanks Scribo for the spreadsheet and the updates. Good work.

    One thing I noticed which is no big deal. But currently the Rockets should hold the tie breaker against the Jazz. They are tied 1-1 head to head and the Rockets are ahead percentage wise in the conference record. So I believe the magic number for the Jazz should be 13 instead of 14.
     
  2. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    Good catch. The Jazz have won 3 more than us, but lost 2 more, so I had them 1/2 game ahead of us. I'll use the percentages instead, which indeed gives the Rockets the tiebreak (for today) and would reduce the Jazz Number by one. It'll be decided for good when we play the Jazz on April 14.

    I'll add that to tonight's batch when I post. Hopefully the Rockets can add to their Conference record today! I'm off. It's time to make some wings for the game. Go Rockets!
     
  3. rocketman1979

    rocketman1979 Contributing Member

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    I like magic. :D

    <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6_QRjEGqDCw&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6_QRjEGqDCw&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
     
  4. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    The magic number is 10 now.

    Also, Scribo, I believe that the tie breaker is head to head and then division record (if the same division) and then conference record. Meaning that for New Orleans, San Antonio and Dallas, we should be looking at their division record before looking at conference record.
     
  5. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-3)
    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-2)
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-22&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;20-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-32&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;13-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)

    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. If a Tie Break changes from No to Yes, the Magic Number drops a point. Conversely, if the Tie Break changes from Yes to No, the Magic Number goes up one.

    Big night for the Rockets. I was a bit concerned today when my daugher puked on her T-Mac shirt right before the game, and I do blame her for his scoreless first half (Shameless link to her before the jersey got messed up). Yet the Rockets hung on for 22 in a row!

    Their win reduces all Magic Numbers by one. Their win over the Lakers also accomplished a rare trifecta, reducing the Lakers number by 3 (1 for the Lakers loss, 1 for the Rockets win, and 1 for taking the Tie Break back).

    The Hornets also lost, reducing their Magic Number by an additional point.

    The Kings, Mavericks, and Nuggets all won today.

    A few techincal notes: I changed the way I calculated who wins the Conference Record Tie Break (See Post #21 and #22) and am now using the Conference winning percentage to determine who wins the Tie Break. This switched the Tie Break with the Jazz from No to Yes, reducing their Magic Number by an additional point.

    I also added some Division record columns (See Post #23). This applies for the Spurs and Hornets. We've already lost the Tie Break with the Mavericks due to our 1-3 record against them. If we lose to the Hornets on Wednesday, we split the season 2-2 with them and would wind up with a worse division record, losing the Tie Break. That would increase their Magic Number by 1. There's a bit more variation with the Spurs, since we currently have the same division record with 2 division games left each (The Spurs also play Dallas). Of course, if we beat both teams, we would win the Head to Head 3-1 and can disregard the Division Record altogether.

    The Kings now stand at 0. Does this mean we have clinched over them and secured the #10 seed in the West? Probably. We currently have the Tie Break over them and have secured at least a tie with them this season. However, they could still wrest away the Tie Break from us. So I'm holding off declaring them until the Rockets win one more or the Kings lose one more.
     
  6. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    Thanks for the update. Those tie breakers can be tricky.

    I do not think we clinched (no worse than the 10th spot yet). If Sacramento won all their games including 2 against us and we lost all our remaining games, then they will win the tie breaker (3-1 head to head).

    Cute pictures by the way.
     
  7. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    Thanks. I think it's important to give your kids a good education and raise them to root for the right teams!

    It is tricky to call the tie breakers when there are still so many games left. The Magic Number really needs to go to -1 if we currently have the Tie Break advantage and it can still switch to the other team. This applies to Denver right now.
     
  8. Jimes

    Jimes Member

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    Hmm, it's probably not good that almost all those remaining games against the contenders are away!! :(
     
  9. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    To make things easier, I say unless we already won the tie breaker, use the worst case scenario for us which is that the opposing team wins the tie breaker.
     
  10. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    I agree. I think it'll make it easier if the Number doesn't keep fluctuating up and down. Here are the revised number going with that assumption. I hate seeing the numbers go up, but it's right thing to do mathematically. The cool thing is that the Magic Numbers can only go down from here. I apologize about the confusion on this. I think this is a good format going forward.

    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-22&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;20-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-32&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;13-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(+1)
    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

     
  11. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    Looks good to me. Thanks !
     
  12. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-20&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;20-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-26&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-32&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;4</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;30-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;13-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

    Clinched #11 Seed

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on March 17. Thanks again to COMPAQ CENTER for helping me finetune the chart.

    The Spurs continued their freefall, dropping their fourth in a row. This drops their Magic Number 1.

    The Hornets and Jazz won tonight.

    Big game for the Rockets tomorrow and is part of a brutal slugfest in the NBA: Rockets-Celtics, Nuggets-Pistons, Lakers-Mavs, Kings-Warriors, Suns-Blazers. Hopefully we extend the streak to 23, but we're knocking a few of those numbers down regardless. The NBA, where Western Conference Playoff contenders beating the crap out of each other on a nightly basis happens.
     
  13. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    To keep myself from obsessing over my delegate counting spreadsheet, I was thinking about our chances for the #1 seed as it relates to the latest batch of Magic Numbers. I have to say I feel pretty good about it. We have 16 games left to drop all of these numbers to zero.

    <B>The Winnables: 8 Games</B>
    Kings, Wolves, @Kings, @Blazers, @Sonics, @Clippers, Soncis, Clippers
    These are teams we should beat if we keep playing the way we have been. That would reduce all Magic Numbers by 8 and also add 8 more wins to our Conference record (Currently 24-13). That takes care of the Kings and Blazers. It leaves the Nuggets at 3, the Warriors and Jazz at 5, the Spurs and Mavericks at 6, the Lakers and Suns at 7, and the Hornets at 8. I’m going with the assumption that we’ll beat these teams. We might lose 1 or 2 of these games, but I consider that as likely as the other 8 contenders dropping a game or two to a scrub team.

    <B>The Slugfest: 8 Games</B>
    Celtics, @Hornets, @Warriors, @Suns, @Spurs, Suns, @Nuggets, @Jazz
    These are trickier games, but I like our chances in all of them. It sucks that they are almost all on the road. Each win drops all Magic Numbers by 1 as well as an additional point against each opponent we beat. While, I hope we go 8-0 in this batch, I don’t think we will manage that. We will get a few of these games, hopefully at least 4.

    We still have Tie Breaks to be decided against the Hornets, Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Warriors, and Nuggets. Winning the Tie Break drops the Magic Number 1 point.

    The Top Eight West Contenders
    <B>Nuggets</B>: @Pistons, @76ers, @Nets, @Raptors, @Grizzlies, Mavs, Warriors, @Suns, Suns, Kings, @Sonics, @Clippers, @Warriors, @Jazz, Rockets, Grizzlies

    We knock them out with a combination of 3 Slugfest victories or Nugget losses. I think the former is very likely considering their poor road record (12-19) and the tough lineup they have coming up. I think we win 3 Slugfest games anyways to pound the nail in the coffin.

    If we win our game with them on April 19, that would clinch the Tie Break, dropping the Magic Number 3 in one game. If we lose, the Tie Break would go to Conference Record, where they are up 4 in the loss column. We still more than likely get the Tie Break even if we lose that game.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Warriors</B>: @Kings, @Clippers, Rockets, @Lakers, Lakers, Blazers, @Nuggets, Mavs, @Spurs, @Mavs, @Grizzlies, @Hornets, Kings, Nuggets, Clippers, @Suns, Sonics

    We knock them out with a combination of 5 Slugfest victories or Warrior losses. They’ve got a tough road of Head to Head matchups with other Western contenders, and I think they drop at least 3 of those games. That would leave at most 2 victories for us in our Slugfest lineup to clinch over the Warriors.

    If we beat the Warriors March 21, that would drop our Magic Number 2. It would also tie the Head to Head matchup and throw the Tie Break to Conference Record, where we are pretty evenly matched up. If we lose that game, they win the Tie Break.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Jazz</B>: Lakers, Sonics, Bobcats, Clippers, @Wolves, Wizards, Spurs, @Hornets, @Mavs, Nuggets, Rockets, @Spurs

    We knock them out with a combination of 5 Slugfest victories or Jazz losses. They have one of the easiest schedules left in the West, but I think they drop a couple of these games and that we can win at least 3 of our Slugfest games.

    The Rockets play the Jazz April 21, and the winner of that game gets the Tie Break. Winning that single game drops the Jazz Magic Number by 3.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Mavs</B>: Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Clippers, @Nuggets, @Warriors, @Clippers, Warriors, @Lakers, @Suns, Sonics, Jazz, @Blazers, @Sonics, Hornets

    We knock them out with a combination of 6 Slugfest victories or Mavs losses. The Mavs have a pretty easy schedule, but they have a rough next 3 games, and play some contenders down the stretch. I think 3 or 4 losses for them is likely, which would mean we need to win 2 or 3 of our Slug Fest games.

    We have lost the Tie Break with the Mavericks, due to our 1-3 Head to Head record.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Spurs</B>: @Bulls, Kings, @Mavs, @Magic, Clippers, Wolves, Rockets, Warriors, @Jazz, @Blazers, Suns, Sonics, @Lakers, @Kings, Jazz

    We knock them out with a combination of 6 Slugfest victories or Spurs losses. I don’t know what kind of funk the Spurs have spun themselves into, but it doesn’t bode well for them right now. They have an easy schedule, but I think 3 or 4 losses for them doesn’t seem farfetched.

    We play the Spurs March 30. If we win that game, we win the Tie Break and knock their Magic Number down 3. If we lose, it goes to Division record, then Conference record. Right now, we’re tied in Division Record at 8-6. If we win against the Hornets, and the Spurs lose to the Mavs this Sunday, we would clinch at least a tie in the Division record with the Spurs. The Spurs have 3 more losses in the Conference right now. I like our chances to get the Tie Break.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Suns</B>: @Blazers, @Sonics, Rockets, @Pistons, @Celtics, @76ers, @Nets, Nuggets, @Nuggets, Wolves, Mavs, @Grizzlies, @Spurs, @Rockets, @Warriors, Blazers

    We knock them out with a combination of 7 Slugfest victories or Suns losses. Shaq has started to look better with the Suns, but they have a really tough schedule ahead. I think they lose at least 5. I also think they’ll lose 1 of their 2 games with us, which would drop their Magic Number 1 more. I think we definitely pick up 1 or 2 additional Slugfest victories to clinch the deal.

    We play the Suns March 22 and April 11. A pair of losses would lose the Tie Break. A pair of wins would clinch the Tie Break and reduce their Magic Number 5. In case of a split, the Tie Break goes to Conference Record, where they have 5 more losses than us right now.

    Likelihood: Very High

    <B>Lakers</B>: @Mavs, @Jazz, Sonics, Warriors, @Warriors, Bobcats, Grizzlies, Wizards, Blazers, Mavs, @Kings, @Blazers, @Clippers, Hornets, Spurs, Kings

    We knock them out with a combination of 7 Slugfest victories or Lakers losses. They face 7 more Contenders, and I think they’ll lose 3-4 of those. I think the Jazz and Mavs games without Gasol will really hurt them (and possibly the back to back with the Warriors). That means we have to win 3-4 of our Slugfest matchups.

    Likelihood: High (Very High if Gasol misses the next 5 games and the Lakers lose 3)

    <B>Hornets</B>: Rockets, Celtics, @Pacers, @Cavs, @Celtics, @Raptors, @Magic, @Heat, Knicks, Warriors, Jazz, @Wolves, @Lakers, @Kings, Clippers, @Mavs

    We knock them out with a combination of 8 Slugfest victories or Hornets losses. I’m not sure how long David West is out, but they have looked very beatable without him. If the Bulls didn’t choke hard in the 4th quarter they would have lost the game last night. That helps seeing how they’re playing us once and the Celtics twice over the next 5 games. They still have 7-8 tough games left this season, and I think 3-4 losses are likely. I think we can win 4 Slugfest matches, but 5 might be difficult.

    We have an absolutely HUGE matchup with the Horents on March 18. If we win, we get the Tie Break and knock their Magic Number down by 3. If we lose, the Hornets win the Tie Break (due to a 2-2 Head to Head matchup, and the Hornets having a better division record).

    Likelihood: Good (Very High if we beat them on Wednesday)
     
  14. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    Great info and analysis, much appreciated !
     
  15. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-21&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;30-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;41-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-27&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;10</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-33&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;14-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

    <B>Clinched #11 Seed</B>

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 18</B>.

    That was a huge letdown, but the streak had to end at some point. It was an emotional loss, but there is still a silver lining. First, it wasn’t a conference loss, which helps the Rockets with their Tie Breakers. From here out, we face nothing but Western Conference teams, including 8 subpar teams.

    Secondly, 4 other playoff contenders lost, so some of our Magic Numbers did go down. The Nuggets, Mavericks, Warriors, and Blazers all lost, so we inch a little closer towards clinching a playoff berth.

    The Lakers, Kings, and Suns all won their games, but seeing how they took down some of the above-mentioned teams, I’ll forgive them for that transgression.

    We have a HUGE game tomorrow against the Hornets, bigger than tonight’s game as far as the standings go. The winner of tomorrow’s game gets the Tie Breaker edge. A win would drop the Hornets Magic Number by 3. It would also gain us another game in the division standings, which could help us with the Spurs as far as the Tie Breaker with them goes.

    Hang in there Rockets fans. This was an unbelievable run that has energized all of us. I haven’t felt this good about the Rockets since 1995. We are still in good shape not only to make the playoffs, but to contend very seriously for the #1 seed.
     
  16. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;27-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;24-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-23&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-24&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-28&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-33&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;14-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

    <B>Clinched #11 Seed</B>

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 19</B>.

    Another disappointing loss for the Rockets, but not completely unexpected during their brutal week. I keep reminding myself that there are 7 of 8 much easier games after this stretch ends on Saturday. It kinda drowns out the voices telling me to destroy things.

    Let’s get the bad news out of the way. This one hurts more than the Celtics loss, having more of an impact on us in the Western Conference playoff race. We lost the Tie Break with the Hornets and now have a steeper climb to beat them out this year. It also hurts our division record, which affects the Tie Break with the Spurs. That Tie Break all comes down to our March 30 matchup where the winner will claim the Tie Break.

    It’s not all bad. The Nuggets lost tonight, which reduces our Magic Number to 9 to reach the playoffs.

    Of course, the Suns and Warriors both won.
     
  17. MayoRocket

    MayoRocket Contributing Member

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    This is an EXCELLENT thread. Thanks for posting and keeping it updated!!
     
  18. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    <B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Games&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Con&nbsp; Overall&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Magic&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</B>
    <B>Team&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W/L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;H2H&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Left&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Div&nbsp;TB&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Conf&nbsp;&nbsp;TB&nbsp;TieBreak&nbsp;&nbsp;Number Diff</B>
    Rockets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-22&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;24-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    Lakers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;47-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;28-12&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Hornets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-21&nbsp;&nbsp;2-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;10-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;31-14&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;16</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Jazz&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;26-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Suns&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;46-22&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;24-18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;15</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Spurs&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;45-23&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;8-6&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;23-16&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;14</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Mavericks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;44-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-3&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;None&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9-5&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;26-13&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;(-1)
    Warriors&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;42-25&nbsp;&nbsp;1-2&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;L&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;22-15&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;No<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;12</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Nuggets&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;40-28&nbsp;&nbsp;2-1&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;23-17&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;9</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Blazers&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;35-33&nbsp;&nbsp;3-0&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;21-19&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes*<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;3</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
    Kings&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;31-36&nbsp;&nbsp;1-1&nbsp;&nbsp;1H,1A&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;T&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;N/A&nbsp;&nbsp;X&nbsp;&nbsp;14-24&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;W&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Yes<B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1</B>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

    * Indicates that the Tie Break is final and cannot be changed due to the outcomes of upcoming games. The Magic Numbers are calculated on an assumption that we will lose the Tie Break unless it's already been clinched. If we clinch a Tie Break, that will drop the Magic Number 1 point.

    <B>Clinched #11 Seed</B>

    Here is the latest batch of Magic Numbers after all games were played on <B>March 20</B>.

    The Rockets weren’t playing last night, but there were 4 contenders playing.

    The Mavericks lost to the Celtics, which drops them a point. Hopefully Boston will continue this streak and take down the Hornets twice over the next few games. The Jazz also lost.

    Spurs and Lakers won.

    Another big game for the Rockets tomorrow, with another Tie Break at stake. With a loss, the Warriors will clinch the Tie Break over the Rockets. A victory would throw the Tie Break to the Conference Record, where the two teams are pretty evenly matched.
     
  19. rimrocker

    rimrocker Contributing Member

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    Rockets and GS is the only really big game today.

    You have to assume SA beats Sacto and LAL beats Seattle.

    Only glimmer of hope is Denver vs. NJ.
     
  20. ScriboErgoSum

    ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

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    Also Blazers-Clippers.

    A Spurs win slams the door shut on the Kings.

    I think it's quite likely that the Nets beat up on the Nuggets. Denver is 12-21 on the road. Harris is going to torch them.
     

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