I don't see what I wrote to be complex. I mean, I came up with it with my Econ 101 knowledge of Opportunity Cost years back. I would hope any baseball GM would have such knowledge of basic econmics.
I was speaking more as fans "judging" the trade, and justifying its acceptance in the face of this entire rebuild, and quality of MLB team that has been forced upon the fans with the promise of better days ahead... I already understand and explained why Luhnow "had" to do it. But yes, by your logic, there is a clear-cut way the Astros benefit from this deal... by no means do I think the Astros are going to be giant losers in the process (unless Moran and Marisnick ultimately fail, and they fail to sign the draft pick again)... but even then, somebody will be able to justify to me why the Astros aren't the losers in this deal.
Not an accurate representation of what I'm saying, but it really isn't worth discussing the highly unlikelihood that the Marlins know something so drastic to turn the trade in their favor from a pure expected WAR prospective. Granted, the Marlins don't have Bo Porter. The deal will be measured by Marisnick, Moran, lottery ticket, and draft pick versus Cosart and Kike while those players are under club control if you want to use hindsight.
I still don't understand why you think this is so complicated. Astros trade a more advanced pitching prospect, where they have lots of depth, for 2 less advanced prospects at 3rd base and center where they have less farm depth. At least to me, this seems very simple and require no convoluted justification.
Jake freaking Marisnick is hitting .315/.321/.426 in 14 games with the Stros, no one saw that coming. SSS but damn that's nice to see production from a guy everyone considered a seat-warmer for the three injured OFers.
Coming into this season he was the #79 prospect according to BA. He's been a top 100 prospect 3 straight seasons. The Marlins for some reason decided to promote him straight from AA last season, and he struggled. For some reason when a guy struggles a little in the show peoples opinion plummets. His defense is spectacular, so if he can even maintain an OPS in the mid .700s he will be a very valuable player. He's never walked much so I'm not counting on him to start doing so, but a .280/.330/.420 type line seems very realistic to me. So far he isn't striking out much here, and that's the key. He's gotta put the ball in play Altuve style to have success. Walking isn't for everybody.
Yeah, I wouldn't characterize Marisnick as a "seat-warmer" by any stretch. He's a legit prospect whose team probably gave up on him way too early. In that sense, I'd equate him to another former top Marlins prospect: Matt Dominguez. Will Marisnick be a star? Probably not. But he strikes me as a potential everyday player at multiple outfield spots. He's certainly got the tools.
Yea, I know his pedigree but it doesn't change the fact that no one expected this level of performance right now. The majority of top prospects are terrible on their initial ML action; we need look no further than Singleton, Santana, Villar, etc. Marisnick previously had nearly 1/3 of a season's worth of big league PA's and was god-awful terrible. So him being productive so soon is surprising. The Marlins clearly didn't or they wouldn't have made a trade that returned equal value in the short term with the potential to be very lopsided later.
I guess I need to clarify my statement, Jake Marisnick was considered to be a seat warmer for THIS SEASON while Fowler, Springer and Presley were injured. Even Luhnow and Porter said they just needed someone who could play legit defense while those guys were out. They traded for him knowing his at-the-time offense was terrible. That was not an indictment of his tools or future potential.
Here's the funny thing, Cosart does not appear much more advanced (if at all) than Marisnick's defense right now. Bo Porter playing the vet in center...SMH.
Start fielding offers for Fowler. Thats $10 million dollars for next year they can devote to another bat and/or the bullpen. If he doesn't get traded in the off-season, and Marisnick is the real deal, I don't see them attempting to sign the free-agent-to-be Fowler.
I am actually quite interested in what the Astros plan to do with their outfield situation this winter. Right now, they have the following guys either figuring into the outfield picture next season or as well-regarded prospects not that far from the MLB club: George Springer Dexter Fowler Jake Marisnick Robbie Grossman Alex Presley Domingo Santana L.J. Hoes Preston Tucker (possible DH) Delino DeShields Jr. If the Astros keep Fowler (arbitration-eligible) beyond this season, then he and Springer are locks for 2 of the 3 starting OF spots. I think if Marisnick can remotely stay at his current production level, he should be considered the favorite for the 3rd OF spot. (Agreed with others who'd rather see Marisnick in CF and Fowler/Springer on the corners.) I'd probably give Grossman the edge as the 4th outfielder. If I'm Luhnow, I try to see what I can get for Santana and/or DeShields, whether that is an upgrade to the MLB club or a nice prospect or two. Maybe they also shop Grossman if they like Presley or Hoes enough as a 4th OF, but I'm not sure they get enough value to make it worth their while. If the Astros (for whatever reason) part ways with Fowler--although I see no reason to part with a solid vet OF like Fowler who has been productive this season--maybe they give Santana a legit shot in LF next to Marisnick and Springer next season. But not sure they want that little MLB experience in the outfield in a year when they (finally) will be trying to actually compete.
They traded for him with the intent of him being a starting OFer the minute he got to Houston. Luhnow's quote the day of the trade was “We’re going to have three center fielders playing in the outfield.”
I really don't want to move Fowler either, I really like like him, but if he is intent on staying in CF we have a problem. Marisnick is better, a lot better. Despite what the eyes and reputation would suggest, Fowler by the numbers has consistently been graded as sub-par to outright bad defensively, while Marisnick so far (sample size alert) has measured out as elite defensively. Keeping Fowler also holds back Santana and Tucker. I really don't care about holding back the prospects if Fowler is a valuable player, but so far Fowler only has a career WAR of 11, largely because of defensive negatives. When you combine his salary, upcoming FA, sub par defensively, under-utilizing Marisnick, possibly holding back prospects and the fact that he misses time every season it creates enough reasons for possibly moving him. This is of course all incumbent on Marisnick proving himself to be a competent hitter the remainder of this season.
That's optimistic FO/trade talk. If he had struggled (not an unreasonable presumption) and both Fowler/Springer came back quickly while Robbie was playing well, then Marisnick would be sent down; there's little doubt in my mind of that.
I completely agree with that Fowler shouldn't be playing CF when both Springer/Marisnick are better. Devil's advocate the organization has to start making some loyalty/veteran-appreciation moves if they want to be seen as a serious FA destination. Their reputation is at an all-time low. Fowler is a top 5 player on the team. It's seems ridiculous to me to try to upgrade the team by getting rid of a top performer. Crazy thought, instead of trading Fowler to upgrade weak positions and open up room for prospects, TRADE THE PROSPECTS.
Maybe we're learning that the Astros FO is smarter than some others. Except Fowler will be a FA next year - if you can get similar production from someone much cheaper (and generally healthier), you do that so you can spend the money at a position of deficiency.
Fowler's ceiling is also fairly low - high 0.700's OPS, 10 HRs, 15 Steals, 130 games is basically the best case scenario. He's a good player on a terrible Astros team, but he's completely forgettable on a good team.
I'm thinking they try to sign Fowler to a cheaper extension this off-season to buy out his remaining arbitration year and 2 of his FA years. Chances are, Fowler will reject that if he truly believes he can stay healthy and make more on the open market. At that point, they will look to trade him. Marrisnick doesn't need to do much offensively to justify being in the lineup... but the Astros do need to get more out of their Catcher, first baseman, and DH spots to become an average-to-good offensive team.
