Luhnow and the Front office

The thing is that Cosart isn't a proven MLB pitcher either. His ERA+ is 93, which makes him a sub-par starter right now. If you value him for what he may become, than he is a prospect just like Marisnick and Moran. 2 prospects and a pick are better than one prospect at a position of strength.

Keuchel and McHugh are better than Cosart right now. Obie and Feldman are producing similar results to Cosart as well. This team doesn't lack for competent MLB starters. Simply put, losing Cosart doesn't hurt this franchise unless he becomes a top of the rotation workhorse and all the prospects flame out.

 

More "justification" logic that astounds me. First its some people drooling over Moran's AA stats and Marisnick's brief 2 week sample size, presuming they are locks to succeed (but calling Cosart's 7 shutout innings against a quality opponent a fluke) ... then its saying Cosart is still a "prospect" despite making over 30+ starts with a 3.53 ERA, a ERA+ of 113, and no real arm trouble/injury history (and he's 24).

How about lets just simplify it to if Cosart continues to have a better MLB career than the prospects we got for him, he may not have been worth giving up on so early. Even with comparable production/WAR's... I still think a young/durable starting pitcher is more valuable (as in this case, the Marlins valued him enough to give up these prized possessions for). Yes, he's not a cy young candidate now... but to presume he's likely "peaked" (as many, not you, have) is a huge assumption.

Also, by your above logic, the Astros were justified in giving up on previous missed "prospects" like Kenny Lofton, Ben Zobrist, or Curt Schilling simply because the team didn't bottom out (and had other prospects contribute).

Franchises do have the ability to make mistakes... and as fans, we don't simply need to wait till its obvious that it was a mistake to be concerned about it. Like most trades, this will need a few years to have the final verdict... I just don't like the precedent of trading young/quality MLB players for more unprovens with potential at this stage of the "rebuild".

 

I guess there is just a major disagreement between what some of us consider quality. Jarred Cosart to me is at best an average MLB starter right now. Could he improve absolutely, but that would be a projection. For this franchise solid everyday 3rd baseman > solid starter, which we already have 4 of.

If you are asking me right now what is more likely to happen Cosart becoming great or Moran/Marisnick becoming a good everyday player, I'm taking Moran/Marisnick. As much as I can't say how good Cosart will be, you can't say how good Marisnick/Moran will be. We know Cosart's floor is higher, but Cosart at his floor is replaceable.

Put it this way, assuming all the players we get bust and Cosart is a solid 3/4 starter for the next decade, this still won't have been a very big loss IMO.

 

I understand your points. At no time am I saying this is a disaster of a trade.

However, I'm just not as flippant about Cosart's potential. Hell, I think his current production is still valuable (let alone future production).

I don't think Cosart is as much of an unknown as you are making him out to be. He shows flashes of brilliance now. He's contributing at the MLB level now. If a young up-and-coming team has no use for a 24 year old starting pitcher with plus stuff, we must be further ahead then I thought.

And yes, if the prospect bust but Cosart sticks, I would consider the trade a loss for the Astros. Sure, it won't cripple the franchise (they could get rid of every current MLB player and it likely wouldn't cripple the franchise), but that should not be the only parameter by which deals are judged.

I'm rooting like hell for Moran... But he's still a total unproven. He could be the next Wade Boggs or the next Brett Wallace. As of 2 months ago, Ruiz was this franchises 3b of the future.

We can play the prospect game forever (it's a sport/league in and of itself). I just want to watch a winning team with actual MLB players, and not consistently give up on young players like this for more unprovens.

Good talk. I think this has been beaten to death (mostly my fault). Will be interesting to see if Moran gets promoted before the season ends, and to see how Cosart finishes up a streaky year.

 

If they have similar WAR, the value of starting pitching would already be accounted for and they would have the same value.

Strawman argument. You assume many think Cosart has peaked. I haven't seen that being the case. Major refers to Cosart as "young guy" and Seal calls him a "prospect". I see the arguments against you mostly being expected future value of Moran and Marisnick is greater than the future expected value of Cosart (I agree with this position).

Saying he's not a Cy Young candidate "now" implies that you think there is a decent chance for him to become a Cy Young Candidate more so than than what many people have said that would imply Cosart has peaked.

From my point of view, it looks like you are comparing the best and highly unlikely outcome of Cosart and comparing it to the worst possible outcomes for Marisnick and Moran. You do this while giving the impression that you think others are only seeing the worst possible outcome from Cosart (peaked) and that others think Moran and Marisnick are guaranteed studs. This is the impression I get from you.

I can personally say I was most excited about the trade because Moran has huge upside even though he could be nothing. Cosart has value in my opinion, but is replaceable. I didn't know Marisnick before Astros traded for him. From an unbiased statistical view, Marisnick's defense has more estimated value (current and future, not past) than everything the Marlins got in the deal even if his offense settles in at Alex Presley levels and if Bo Porter made him the starting center fielder over Fowler. Even if Marisnick defense is a mirage and settles in at a level equal (do defenders have hot defensive streaks?) to Cosart, Astros get a cheap look at Moran, undrafted guy, and the lottery pick. Even if Marisnick falls apart, Moran still has the upside to make the deal work out in the Astros favor.

If Moran AND Marisnick both under perform, Astros lose the deal. If Cosart becomes a Cy Young type pitcher, Astros lose the deal. I think most of the gray area between the extremes favor the Astros (i.e. odds are significantly greater than 50% that Astros got more future value). You obviously don't which is fine. It just is rude in my opinion when you characterize someone else's opinion as something it isn't.

 

I should add, I suspect the Marlins see something in Cosart that the Astros don't that will improve his value and that they Appeled on Moran. Even if the Marlins can get some extra expected value out of Cosart that Astros couldn't, that doesn't make Cosart more valuable to the Astros because the value would never be realized.

 

Don't really understand your point here.

If he goes on to be a better pitcher for the Marlins, it doesn't matter since he wouldn't have realized that value with the Astros?

It does matter... and if the Marlins are getting more value out of our discarded goods, maybe the team should figure out what they're doing.

 

If, though, we have a pitcher come up that replaces the value of Cosart (perhaps a Wojo or a NiTro), I think it plays a role in the trade. If we feel like we got appropriate value for Cosart and he goes off and does well, I think it also needs to be considered how his replacement does as well as Moran and Marisnick.

 

I don't have time to dig up the posts saying Cosart is who he is now... as he was in the minors. All of those points imply that his ceiling isn't all that high (about where he is now).

I also am not expecting the "worse" from M/M. Just saying that until they perform consistently at the big league level (or even make the big league level), I'm not going to get giddy over the "what could be" in comparison to what Cosart is doing now.

I think at this point, after seeing the mixed bag of how prospects do when they come up (Villar - fail, Springer - eventual success, albeit a delayed call up, Cosart - mixed bag, Singleton - mixed bag), I'm just conditioned to not getting overwhelmed with minor league stats and I'm not expecting immediate greatness once they make it.

Sure, I want the farm as healthy as can be (it was healthy before this trade)... and 3B with huge upsides are really nice (then again, wasn't Ruiz the 3B with huge upside that we were counting on?). Its still about winning at the MLB level... and I hope they know what they're doing when they give up on MLB players for prospects (on the flip side, would you criticize the Marlins for this trade as an example of them not knowing what they're doing? because they seem to have more successful rebuild experience than the Astros).

 

You're still replacing a relative known (with further potential for improvement) with an unknown.

What if Wojo or Nitro does OK for 1 to 2 years... inconsistent with flashes, but not bad enough to send down.... do you then support giving up on them as well if the "right deal" for prospects comes along? There would likely be replacements for them in Hader/Appel. You see where I'm coming from?

Agreed that we need to see how it all plays out (which will take a few years)... that's why I'm really not wanting to further this discussion (but will continue to respond to responses... like the idiot I am )

 

I don't think the Astros can assume that they don't know what they are doing considering they have gotten extra value out of Keuchel and possibly McHugh. The Astros can't be scared to make trades based on speculation that another team may be able to salvage their junk when the Astros are trying to do the same thing to the other team. Let the Marlins have the risk.

I would say that it would mean that the Astros have to fix internal issues if that is determined to be correct, but the Astros still have to make decisions based on how they value players on what they can do to improve them. If the Marlins have some true magic elixir to turn him into Cy Cosart, the Astros still have to value Cosart as who Cosart will be with the Astros unless they can determine the magic elixir.

 

Still not following you.... actually, I'm now more confused than I was before.

Lets see what Cosart becomes... but what I think you're trying to say is that if he becomes elite, it wouldn't have been with the Astros anyways so there's no harm for trading him now since he wasn't going to become that sort of pitcher for the Astros.

That's like the Rockets saying its ok if Parsons becomes a star in Dallas (and worth the salary he signed for) since he wasn't going to become a star here playing on this team.

Not sure I buy into any of the above stuff. Basically this is still going to be measured on Cosart's MLB career vs. Moran/Marisnick's MLB careers.

 

People frequently say Johan Santana would not have been the same pitcher if he hadn't gone to Minnesota.

 

Different comparison... he was in the minors till he went there... and still struggled to start. He was also only 21... can't really say if he was simply still developing, or if the change really affected him.

But sure, different situations/environments can impact development (See Appel - Lancaster). I just think its a little presumptuous to say that's what would happen here if Cosart goes on to have more success in Florida.

 

Isn't this entire exercise presumptuous?

 

Probably... then again, some had already made up their minds on Jarred after he allegedly spoke up about the Appel bullpen session, which goes beyond presumption about future performances.

I really wish the MLB team was relevant. Its been fun prognosticating about prospects the last 3-4 years... and I'm still super excited about Correa... I just can't get giddy (or broken up) about minor league stat-lines anymore.

 

I see no reason why this comparison is between the Marlins prospects and Cosart in the first place. It seems to me that trading Cosart, a starting pitcher, for Moran, a 3rd baseman, has more to do with positional scarcity on the farm rather than a pure talent flip.

So rather than comparing Moran to Cosart, the comparison should be "Cosart's potential over Astros pitching prospects in the minors + cheap utility player" vs. "Moran's potential + Marsnick's potential + potential of sandwich pick over current Astros CF/3B prospects." If you don't like the trade, then it should be due to the fact that you don't believe the Astros SP prospects as a group are any good. Because if even 2-3 of them become mid-level starting caliber pitchers, then trading Cosart was the correct decision unless he turns into an all-star.

 

If it takes this much complex thinking to try to justify something... its probably not worth trying to justify it to begin with. I'll stick with monitoring Cosart's progress/development (not only compared to other Astros pitchers, but compared to all pitchers in baseball). Not all of the Astros farm-hand pitchers are going to make it. Hell, not all the current Astros pitchers having success will continue to have that success in the future (not to mention staying healthy, which is never a given).

I also think that Luhnow specifically wanted Moran (not just any 3B).... and the fact that he didn't specifically acquire Cosart (but he obviously still had a good amount of trade value) helped to make that decision to trade him a little easier.

Its also possible to disagree with the trade simply because its trading an established (albeit not stellar) young MLB pitcher for prospects... on a team that could use a surplus of talent everywhere on the big league level.