Can't find the Fangraphs link that values prospects, but you gotta think that if Martes, Tucker, and Reed were free agents they would definitely get way more than $50M combined. Which would mean logically that package should be enough. But it won't; some team is going to massively overpay.
Doubt Verlander's next 4 years outperform his last 4 years. Assuming next 4 years are the same as last 4 years, that would yield a surplus value of 22 million. If he loses 0.5 WAR a year, he doesn't have any surplus value left. Tigers will likely eat some contract to create more surplus value if they trade him.
That is true but the Tigers would make a different argument that would maximize Verlander's excess WAR value. Over the last four years, Verlander posted an average 3.7 WAR, viz-aviz his career average of 4.6 WAR. 3.7 WAR over 4 years is 14.8 WAR which has a value of 118 million. The excess WAR would then be 10 million (118 million - 108 million) or 1.25 WAR. One has to think that the Tigers are going to demand way more than that to get a trade done. In 2014, Verlander had his worst year in his career. In 2015, Verlander was hurt. Both of these years contributed to his drop in WAR over the last four year period. In 2016, Verlander (age 33) posted an amazing 6.6 WAR. The 6.6 WAR is the golden ring all potential traders are wanting to grab.
Tigers can demand all they want, but practically all front offices now operate more or less the same with the fall of the Dbacks front office. Some team likely values him to have some surplus value, but I doubt it is much more than 10-15 million considering age. That said, I do expect if he's traded, Tigers pay a lot of contract to get more prospects.
They will certainly try to sell this angle, but as Sabathia, Zito and many others have shown, banking on anything approaching peak-level performance from a once-elite arm with a ton of mileage is a fool's errand. They would have to eat a ton of that remaining salary no matter the prospect cost. A team looking to dramatically cut payroll as it's top priority rarely has the luxury of leveraging several suitors against eachother. Usually they are lucky to find 1 or 2 buyers, and they can't be too choosy with the return when negotiating from such a poor position. On a side note - Just imagine what the Tigers could have had in 2016: Verlander - 6.6 WAR (#1 in all MLB) & CY finalist Scherzer - 6.2 WAR (#3) & CY winner Porcello - 5.0 WAR & CY winner Fulmer - 4.9 WAR & ROY winner That rotation would have rolled thru Cleveland, Chicago and anyone else on the way to the championship. Now Ilitch is having to tear it all down fire-sale style and start over as he nears his end empty-handed. What a shame.
Tigers used the farm system to trade for players. It worked for 4 years to keep them competitive. Even with a constant flow of prospects into farm system, it will probably take 3-4 years until farm is constantly producing talent to the majors if Tigers don't do a fire sale this offseason.
