I can see making some trades. The Astros are not the defending champs or even a playoff team. They still need an influx. The trade for Sale would not just take guys that would mystically help the Astros in an unspecified future. The Astros would be parting with guys who are needed in 2017 as injury replacements and/or flat out taking guys' spots. Astros would have to depend on getting emergency starters through free agency. If the Astros need a SP, they need to outbid other teams for Hill (or hope that Sox only ask for Tucker, Whitley and two other prospects). Plenty of the Astros prospects will bust. Not everyone Astros believe in will make it. Between Martes, Musgrove, and Paulino, Astros may get one starter. Astros can always make trades if guys start to get blocked. I don't see Astros farm as so great that that should be a concern for at least a couple of years. Astros can pretty much trade away any position player prospects or low minor prospects in my opinion. Astros still need its AA and AAA pitching prospects. Unfortunately for a trading aspect (but overall it is good that most of the prospects are what the Astros MLB team needs), most of the Astros value in the minors are those prospects.
Agreed. I just don't give into irrational fear that the farm system will be decimated beyond the point of salvaging, regardless of move. Maximizing the current core's chances should be priority a,b,c, and d.
Winning a World Series should be the top priority. I hope this team's core is ready and capable of winning a World Series.
I'm not against this at all, just saying I'd rather spend money in free agency than through prospects when possible. I follow minor leagues pretty closely, and realistic or not its hard for me to let some high upside guys go.
I see the Astros sitting until the deadline to make a more major trade move. See if the current core needs another push to realistically make the next push. A lot will hinge on the health/performance of Keuchel/McCullers in 2016.
I get what you're saying but I've seen so many prospect deals amount to nothing for the receiving team. There's just way too much uncertainty in prospect evaluation/development. Who'd have guessed Singleton would have gone from a top 30 prospect to total bust? Flip side, the Astros will never be able to consistently add big pieces on the FA market like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers can. It's a harsh truth but they may never sign a $100m pitcher and that effectively rules out signing an ace.
I doubt Rich Hill will demand that, but will be a lot less costly and has almost the same upside as a Sale or Archer, for next season at least. I don't even know what I'm arguing at this point, if we got Sale or Archer I would be hype (as long as it didn't cost Bregman), but if I were GM I'd at least wait on that given the other options and given how costly that would likely be.
I've also seen deals where the prospect turns into a guy like Jeff Bagwell or Ben Zobrist. I've also seen veterans spontaneously become nobodies after being acquired. Both sides have to weighed. Astros aren't a big market team and depend on club controlled pre-FA talent to keep payroll down. Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers don't depend on minors for cost control so the Astros can't expect to consistently be able to add big pieces via trading propsects as these teams are more willing to trade their prospects (i.e. Musgrove providing maybe a win for nothing means a lot more to the Astros than it would for the Yankees as the Yankees can just spend 8 million to get a guy that is expected to get a win). To get an ace, the Astros best chance is growing one from the system or as a rental at the deadline.
C McCann 1B Napoli 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Bregman RF Reddick CF Springer LF Aoki DH Beltran IF Marwin C Gattis UT Gurriel OF Marisnick That's as deep a position player roster as I can remember. Would probably represent the best Astros lineup ever.
Pay me now or pay me later. Take Justin Verlander (and Kate Upton at all of his home starts ). If the Astros trade for Verlander in the offseason, they will pay less and have him for the whole season. If the Astros trade for Verlander at the deadline, they will pay more and have him for half a season.
Astros are well aware that Verlander would have a half a season less at deadline than now. Even with trade deadline deals costing slightly more per WAR than offseason, the Astros would likely pay less at deadline due to Verlander having a half season less of expected WAR.
Why would we pay more at the deadline, there's no gun to the Tigers head right now, so they can set a high price and stick to it. I think the primary reason it makes sense to wait is letting our rotation shake out. McCullers, Keuchel and Musgrove have front end potential, and Martes also has that. Maybe in July getting an ace isn't as pressing a need. Now getting an ace is always helpful, but maybe we can address that internally without paying that steep price that an ace will cost. I imagine around the deadline the price for a Verlander or a Sale won't be significantly higher, if not a little lower. And the ace is more of a desperate postseason need than a regular season one.
The Tigers have made it known that all of their big ticket players are available. I think that we are assuming that the Tigers will trade Verlander if they get a market offer.
Sale is younger (33 to 27), much cheaper (28 mill to 12 mill), and has been better overall the last 3 years. Plus they both have 3 contracted years left. Sale certainly should cost more prospect wise.
Let's do the math. Verlander Verlander has 3 years left on his contract with an option for the fourth year (triggered if he is top 5 in Cy Young). Tigers for trade purposes will assume that the fourth year is guaranteed. Thus, Verlander will get paid 108 million over the next four years. Verlander has started the last 11 years (remarkably injury free) and has delivered an average 4.6 WAR/year (50.8 WAR/11 years). The next four year should yield 18.4 WAR. The free market for 1 WAR s about 8 million, so the 18.4 WAR is worth about 147 million. Thus, there is excess WAR in Verlander's contract of 39 million (147 million - 108 million). Sale Sale has three years left on his contract. Sale will get paid 38 million over the next three years. Sales has started the last 5 years and has delivered an average 3.7 WAR (18.5 WAR/ 5 years). The next three years should yield 11.1 WAR which is worth about 89 mllion. Thus, there is excess WAR in Sale's contract of 51 million (89 million - 39 million). Caveats: Verlander is older, so his stuff will fade. That fourth year, that the Tigers will demand to be in consideration for trade purposes, may not automatically vest and may not even be picked up. Sale pitches from the 3/4 which stresses the elbow which may lead to TJS.
