Log Jam in the outfield

If Preston Tucker is getting ANY time in the OF next season, then the season is down the drain.

He is awful I'm pretty much every way.

 

Most likely NSFW, but I can't believe none of you miscreants posted this already:

 

Thank god some of you ain't GMs. Y'all would think that the only way to acquired Chris Sale is to give up the whole farm system and young MLB talent. Lol.

 

Yeah. He is another Singleton. A very good minor league player, but not a Major leaguer.

 

I didn't propose it moron, that came from MLB. Com from a person in the Sox front office who of course didn't want to be named. Jfc

 

Why you're mad though... Is it because you didn't stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night ?!!! huehuehue

 

The thing is, not many teams are going to consider Cameron as a top prospect. Or Reed. And Fisher barely qualifies as a top prospect. Paulino? Absolutely a top prospect. But a package for Sale would probably look more like Musgrove, Paulino, Reed, Martes, K. Tucker. And even that might not get it done.

 

Also, I'd consider any trade for Sale that involves Bregman to be a huge loss for the Astros. Maybe it's just me, but Bregman seems like too much of a sure thing future star to trade away.

 

Chris Sale is probably worth at least the Astros top 6 prospects. I don't see the White Sox handing him over for less.

 

Any trade for Sale begins with Bregman. The gain of Bregman to the ChiSox is vastly greater than the loss to the Astros (on the field) and that's why a deal might be doable. The ChiSox would stand to get a potential perennial All star SS who defends well and hits like a mutha. That's extremely valuable. They could value him as the next Lindor or Correa. In contrast, the loss to the Astros -- on the field -- is not as proportionately high. We would miss his bat, but Yuli would take 3B. We could then take the $20MM/yr cost savings from our sub market value ace, and use it toward a big bat at 1B or OF. The net effect on the offense is just fine.

If, and it's a big if, the Astros brass were comfortable that the drop in velocity is a tolerable risk or explainable, Sale is exactly the kind of player you spend your most valuable trade chip on. So if the front office is ok with Sales medical, yeah, you deal Bregman, Devinski, Martez and Kyle Tucker for Sale. The question Luhnow must get right is what is the best way to maximize value in dealing Bregman.

Sale is a gamechanger. You go from a decent pitching staff with question marks to an outstanding staff built for playoffs and with depth at top, middle and back end to sustain you for an entire regular season. Sale, Keuchel, MCCullers, Musgrove, McHugh, Fiers, Morton, Paulino, etc.

 

Exactly, my point!

 

If that's the package for Sale, i want them putting Abreu in and sending money back. Because that's a godfather offer the likes of which i haven't seen ever.

It's not implausible that Bregman and Devo alone combine for more WAR than Sale next year, and you want to toss in two more top 40 prospects? That doesn't just hurt, that's crazy.

 

Agreed - that's kind of an insane return. I can't think of many trades of superstars in their prime, but A-Rod comes to mind. Texas got Alfonso Soriano and a PTBNL for one of the best players of all time in his prime and had to pay a chunk of his salary in the process.

 

I have seen people throw around Bradley, Moncada, and Devers as the package Boston could offer, and if that's the price it just doesn't make sense for Houston to try to match or beat that, which to me would mean 1 of McCullers or Bregman, 1 of Musgrove or Reed, and 1 of Martes or Tucker.

It's not like there's no way including Bregman would make sense, but there would have to be more coming back to Houston, likely either Frazier, Abreu, or Robertson, with Chicago eating most of that players salary. A deal for Sale and Eaton would certainly warrant a package built around Bregman plus 4-5 other top prospects. But for just Sal (or Archer), Houston needs to avoid including McCullers, Bregman, or Springer.

I keep thinking McHugh makes the most sense as a guy who has a pretty known value and would be somewhat expendable if they acquire an ace, especially with Morton on board

 

If teams are trading away an ace, they don't want guys like McHugh except as a throw-in. They can get guys like that pretty easily in free agency. They are going to want guys they can't easily acquire elsewhere - established stars or prospects with incredible upside. I just don't agree that the Astros should be trading 4 or 5 of those kinds of players for 1 guy.

 

Just no. McHugh has been worth 9.9 WAR over 539 IP the last 3 seasons (he has been the 22nd most valuable pitcher in baseball over that timeframe); he is under control for 3 more seasons where he will be arbitration eligible and make much less than market value. If he were a free agent he'd likely be looking at $80M+. He is most certainly NOT a throw-in, not a guy that is had pretty easily in free agency, and not a player easily acquired elsewhere. IF McHugh were shopped he would have tons of value, and I'm sure there are teams that see him as a viable #2 starter and most teams see him as a good #3.

 

He's also a guy who's trended down each of the last 3 years, with his WAR dropping from 4.2 in 2014 to 1.2 last year. His ERA has gone from outstanding to league average or worse, and his WHIP has gone from excellent to just bad. His average innings per start has dropped too so he's not even an innings eater anymore. McHugh is not remotely going to be the major piece in any trade for Sale.

 

Yeah, I'm just never a fan of trading prospects when I think of how good Martes or Paulino can be. Cameron and Reed definetely had seasons that lowered their stock, but are still highly rated and I see upside in them both. We'll see, Cameron's still very young.

But I get the trades. Sometimes you gotta make tough decisions to win now. I'd just much prefer to spend big through free agency rather than trading away the future of the franchise. Altuve, Bregman, Keuchel, Correa and Springer will all command big money soon enough, and our deep farm system would really pay dividens then.

 

Or you realize that no extended run is supplied by a farm system alone, and the goal is always to win at the big league level. You're worried about the turnover of core/established/star-level players that won't be an issue for years. It's like Astros fans being ready to have a move on plan for Biggo/Bagwell in 1992.

If you have fears about the farm system, even with trading guys, don't. As long as they continue to draft well and sign their picks, they will constantly have an influx of potential talent.

What you don't want to happen is you hang on to players until they're basically forced to be promoted or they simply have to be let go because of the guys blocking them at the big league level.

Also, as has been said before, there's an extremely low probability that Musgrove, Paulino, Martes, and Whitley all make it. You gotta pick the ones you believe the most in, and give up the ones that can actually get you something back.

 

You're using bWAR; his fWAR has been pretty consistent (3.2, 3.7, 3.0). ERA is a shitty stat to use to evaluate a pitcher's true performance. He pitched 380+ innings over the last 2 seasons so not sure how you say he can't eat innings (only 17 pitchers in MLB have thrown more innings in the last 2 seasons). I can't say for sure if McHugh could be the cornerstone of a Sale trade (neither can you) since we really have no idea what they're looking for, but McHugh absolutely has a shitload of surplus value, and next to Keuchel/McCullers, he's the most valuable pitcher Houston has (including prospects).