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Lin worth a first round pick? A lottery pick?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by haydenfisher342, Apr 16, 2014.

  1. yummyhawtsauce

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    1. LOL at everything

    2. It seems to me from my experience on the Knicks forums that real Knicks fans really liked Lin. He was truly one of their own and his rags to riches story perfectly underscores the "American Dream" possibilities that only NYC can provide

    3. Is it really a surprise that the Knicks fell so hard and so fast. They were playing on borrowed time given the age of the players and the cap situation. Their only real asset was Lin and they let him walk for nothing as you mentioned. It's like a hedge fund that goes under because all that leverage eventually caught up to them.

    4. I really don't understand how anyone in Knicks mgt thought JR smith, felton and bargnani could contribute to a winning cause.
     
  2. RocketsFido

    RocketsFido Member

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    Only Knicks would've traded a 1st round pick for Jlin but now that Phil's taken over, I doubt that will happen.
     
  3. Clutch

    Clutch Administrator
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    meh -- you may be right, but I'm not so sure. I'm only saying it's possible to cost two, but I'm basing it on the fact that Houston's first rounder is not great this year. Is the 24-26th pick alone worth $11-12 million (and an $8+ million cap hit) to a team? I don't know -- it will depend on how they value Lin in that equation because I don't think the financials alone are worth it.

    Keep in mind, where the Rockets will pick is where contenders are, and historically some of those picks go on the trade market cheap for flexibility. For example, last year, Denver traded #27 to Utah for nothing more than the 46th pick and $3 million in cash. Minnesota did the same with the 26th pick, sending it for a future second rounder and cash. At most, that's about a $4-$5 million cost. Lin's contract, even with max cash sent in return, is a cost of $11-$12 million.

    Plus, if the Rockets are looking to move Lin and create cap space, moving the pick also helps them, getting that guaranteed salary off their books (unless they go EuroStash).

    Point being -- even if this is a better draft and/or first round picks are now more at a premium, I don't know if their value has doubled to tripled. The unknown is what value a team would place on having Lin.

    I think you're looking at it more like a mid-season scenario rather than an offseason scenario.

    You won't get someone to absorb Jeremy Lin's contract and give you picks. Not straight up, anyway. The Rockets will have to pay someone to do that.

    And you can't look at it like the Rockets need to get something for Lin when it would be the offseason. It's very similar to amnestying Luis Scola. Why unload a useful player and get nothing in return? For the cap room... which is used to get the player you want/need.
     
  4. flamingdts

    flamingdts Member

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    I had a feeling this was a troll thread.

    That or the OP is really so sad that he would deliberately incite a "Lin hate" thread then come back later and cry about Lin hate.
     
  5. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    if that's Lebron available on the market with a cap hit of 20 mil but actual salary of 40 mils, there will be still teams lining up to sign him.

    but you are talking Lin here.

    rich people are rich for some reasons, dumb will not be one of them.
     
  6. apcgamb24

    apcgamb24 Member

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    You're right. Houston doesn't have any history of making point guards look bad. But neither Dragic nor Lowry had a superstar, ball dominant 2-guard playing with them. This situation surely makes your production decline because the ball is in your hands way less and you take less shots. I know Lowry is much better than Lin but look at his production from last year/beginning of this year and then compare that to his production from the post-Gay trade. There's a huge difference.

    I'm in no way comparing Harden and Gay as talents, as Harden as your best player makes you at least a playoff team and Gay as your best player makes a lottery team, but you can't ignore the siuation. Lowry was great with the Rockets as he was the main ball handler, had a very disappointing first year with the Raptors, and is now having an all star caliber season this year after Gay was traded. Lowry's talent has not changed. It's always been there. But now he's getting more opportunities and is playing the best ball of his career.

    I know Lowry is better than Lin. But all I'm saying is if Harden wasn't traded for (which was what Morey asssumed when he signed Lin) and Lin was averaging 16-18 and 7, no one would be complaining about his
    "cancer" of a contract. Obviously we would be a **** team in that situation, but I'm just saying most point guards who would come here would have their production declined playing next to Harden. And that's not even a bad thing. Harden is a top 5 offensive player in the league and deserves to have the ball in his hands.
     
  7. torocan

    torocan Member

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    I wasn't. My point is similar to yours except that given the Rockets current strength as a team, I don't see Morey cutting Lin just for cap space unless he has Specific players in FA that he's targeting that will require the space. It's one thing to weaken your team when you're a lottery team. It's a much more dodgy proposition to give away productive players (in spite of the production/value measure) when you already have a dark horse championship contender.

    He's not going to clear cap space just for the sake of cap space and risk weakening next year's team unless he sees a clear way to improve the team's cap space AND have the Rockets remain at a similar level of performance or improve the team.

    So, if Morey sees a similar level PG for a much better price he might do it (however you have to factor in the cost in terms of assets and picks sent out against the salary savings). And I think he would definitely pull the trigger if he felt he had to make room for a franchise impact player like Melo, LMA, Love, etc.

    That's not quite the same as our situation pre-Harden/Howard where clearing cap space by amnestying Scola was about creating maximum flexibility to get ANY franchise level player.
     
  8. Pukimonster

    Pukimonster Member

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    Lakers depth chart at the 1 = Nash, Farmar, Kendall Marshall. Nash is a bad contract at $10M. Farmar and Marshall can be resigned for $3-4M combined.

    Kupchak's plan this offseason is to try to flip their pick for Kevin Love. Otherwise the team isn't going anywhere until Nash is off the books and it's better to keep the pick and wait for 2015 FA.
     
  9. AvgJoe

    AvgJoe Contributing Member

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    He may not be right but you are using a wrong comparison here. Majority of max contract players are worth more than their contract. A better comparison would be someone without max contract. Would you pay double for someone like Jarrett Jack?
     
  10. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Obviously Lowry and Dragic would not have the same glitzy numbers, but the game is far above box score stat lines. It is a FACT that both Lowry and Dragic are superior shooters than Lin. I also consider both of them better than Lin at playing off the ball so either one of them would have been a much better fit. I am not arguing that stats decline when playing next to a ball dominant star, I am arguing the freaking r****ded BS that Rockets somehow make PG's bad and that they shine when they leave. Very few PG's regress on the Rockets. The vast majority gets better.
     
  11. Exiled

    Exiled Member

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    Rich teams's owners most likely are rich cuz they think in business mentally with exception of a few rich Dad's inherent

    So , can Jeremy sell more jerseys to cover his 15m$ since this his (only)strong selling point?
     
  12. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    For the Rockets to trade Lin, a lot of other things need to be happened.

    - you will at least need couple teams still want to tank next season, and they will have the space and also willing to use that space to buy couple picks (such as Utah did this season for Golden State). This alone is not easy, because there are lots of the teams trying to tank this season because this is a strong draft and lately most of the potential prospects also decided to go pro, that means majority of the current tanking team will somehow get a guy they like and probably start the rebuild process next season.

    - It's hard for a team to keep trying to tank after a high lottery pick without even trying to win, we are talking about the jobs of the GM and coaches.

    - hence you will like to see some miracle here to see some of the mid-late lottery team got lucky and move up and pump some bad teams like Utah or Det further down. Eventually you will need a bad team like that whose willing to suck again next year to pull this off.

    - otherwise, you will need something like this happened : Either Melo will leave NYK, or Love make it clear he won't resign and Min will trade him away, then both team could go into a full tanking mode and that will also be a great chance for the Rockets to pull a deal for Lin.

    - As above mentioned, late first round pick will not have much value as comparing to a high second round pick. If the Rockets is going to pull this off, I won't be surprised to see the Rockets will trade away their next year first round pick + this year's NYK second round pick + Lin + D-Mo in a multi team trade just for the cap space and money saving.
     
  13. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    Just saw this from the wire, James Harden is the only Rockets player in the top 10.

    Even Tim Duncan is still selling more jerseys than Lin.

    ---------------------------------

    Best-Selling Jerseys for 2013-14

    1. LeBron James Heat
    2. Kevin Durant Thunder
    3. Kobe Bryant Lakers
    4. Derrick Rose Bulls
    5. Stephen Curry Warriors
    6. Carmelo Anthony Knicks
    7. Dwyane Wade Heat
    8. Chris Paul Clippers
    9. Kyrie Irving Cavaliers
    10. James Harden Rockets
    11. Blake Griffin Clippers
    12. Russell Westbrook Thunder
    13. Rajon Rondo Celtics
    14. Tim Duncan Spurs
    15. Paul George Pacers
     
  14. Sports2012

    Sports2012 Member

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    Doesn't the OP know that? What's the agenda here?
     
  15. Sports2012

    Sports2012 Member

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    Very fair comments and I totally agree.
     
  16. duluth111222

    duluth111222 I.D.I.O.T

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    Not surprising because you LOFs agree with each other on everything. 20/5/7? Seriously? And which team in their right minds will feature Lin as a first option?
     
  17. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    This always makes me chuckle a bit. Pray tell, which team would do this for a player like Lin?
     
  18. Soft Takes

    Soft Takes Rookie

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    I hope you're just trolling lol. Those numbers aren't even too far off his numbers now and he's getting like 20 minutes a game... So yes, if he was a primary option he would be putting up those numbers and I guarentee you because of his Nash-like game his team would be better than lottery bound. When you have pass first guys the whole team plays more cohesive and harder on both ends of the floor. That's a known fact.
     
  19. King1

    King1 Contributing Member

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    Hahahahahahaha

    No way you typed that with a straight face. Jeremy is a can
     
  20. TheJet

    TheJet Member

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    20/5/7 for an entire season? Do I smell a friendly wager? :grin:

    Clearly he'd have to be starting, but what other requirements are in this guarantee?
     

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