There's no way you get a first round pick for Lin on his Current contract. The way his contract is back loaded essentially creates a trade tax for any team that wants to look at him in terms of adding him to the roster. Even if another team felt that Lin's $8.3M cap hit was a reasonably fair salary, the $6.5M in back loaded real salary is still a real financial penalty. One way to look at the $6.5M in back loaded salary is to think about the going price value for 2nd round picks. That $6.5M in terms of the bottom line for a non salary capped team is about the equivalent of a MLE level role player. A MLE level role player is probably worth 1 to 2 second round picks. Think of Lin as a $8.3M/year player that any team who acquires him is ALREADY giving away 1 to 2 second round picks in any trade deal (cash they could use to BUY a 2nd round pick in terms of opportunity cost). So, for the Rockets to get FAIR on court basketball value, they essentially have to send out a package of players + Picks that's equivalent to $15M+ in salary. So, if you want equivalent on-court value back, then put together package of Lin + Players that would be equivalent to spending $15M for the opposing team. Yes, Lin's expiring of $8.3M has some value, but that value is more than offset by the salary hit. The only ways I see Lin going out in a trade is if you package him with multiple players and/or multiple picks to offset the poison pill. Or if Morey is willing to take back a bad contract. Or if you send him out for a TPE you MIGHT get back a 2nd rounder IF the partner team has a specific need for his skill set. The problem with a TPE is that if you send out Lin for a TPE you are not only limiting his trade destinations (teams with cap space), but you are also making the Rockets a worse team until you find enough players to replace his production. And therein lies the crux. While Lin's skill set overlaps with Harden's, once you get past Harden there is NOBODY else on the team that can fill Harden's role to any significant degree. Lin is not only the back up PG, he's the back up SG on the team. Lin's the guy that takes Harden's role when he's injured or has to rest. This is the real reason why Morey wasn't going to do it at the trade deadline unless it was part of a larger package. And it's why he's not likely to move Lin on his own unless it's part of a larger sign and trade, or there's a specific FA that he's willing to clear the decks to clear cap space (ala Howard). Now, IF you let Lin run out his contract, in a sign and trade at the end of 2014/15 you could get fair value for Lin. You could probably get a straight up 1:1 in terms of player impact trade value (without picks coming back), or you could send him out for a TPE + Picks and could probably net a couple 2nd rounders, or a protected 1st rounder. For right now? Expect the only way to move Lin is send out additional players + Picks, or at best you might get back a TPE with nothing else coming back in the deal and you would still probably need to add cash to the deal.
If I wanted to stir up more hate for Lin, this is exactly the type of thread I would start. So it's arguable if the OP is a Lin fan or not. And it's silly to want the organisation to give up something to get rid of someone who is contributing to the team. Silly, silly.
If andrea bargnani worth a future 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks, I don't think we can't dump Lin's contract as an expiring.
Lin is not going to fetch a first round pick. His salary cap hit is only $8.3, but the actual pay is $15m which is going to deter most teams from going after him. DD
I hate that posters say "his 15 million dollar pay will deter most teams", like we are not talking about some of the richest people in the USA who owns these franchises!! They can afford it! What matters is the Cap hit of 8mil and honestly that is nothing and easily absorbed. I can actually see Lin and Asik to the Lakers (for what players???)....Makes since to me, especially since Gasol is leaving and they need a PG (who sales tickets and appeals to the demography of the city).
The difference is that Toronto didn't want equivalent talent/impact back in the Bargnani trade. Toronto got back Steve Novak, Marcus Camby and Quentin Richardson plus picks in their trade, which most everyone thought was WAY too much. Morey wants equivalent or better on court impact in the returning package. Since he's unwilling to make the team worse this year (or next year without something really worth shooting for), that Bargnani type scenario is a lot less likely. Not to mention, there's only one Knicks and it's now being run by Phil Jackson, so don't expect him to do us nearly as many favors as the old regime. If you send out Lin, you either get back picks but no talent/garbage contracts, or you get back a decent player and send out enough players/picks to make up the salary hit differential. You won't get both.
Worth 3 first round picks. Seriously he would have been waived a while back if this was football. The contract is a poison pill.
Speaking of NYK, what would you say is the general sentiment among Knicks fans about Lin's rockets being top 4 in the west and the knicks being out of the playoffs entirely, would you say it's poetic justice or otherwise?
This was proven false this season when the balloon payment bothered teams when discussing Asik, something reported by multiple media members and confirmed by Morey at one point. If teams were leery of the Asik balloon payment they are going to be downright unhappy about Lin's. Despite their wealth, a lot of NBA owners are cheap, and even if they aren't, most won't be happy about paying a player $15 million to produce like Lin regardless of salary cap payments. Why do you think so many NBA teams buy out players despite it not helping the cap?
If you think they still give a damn about "Lin's Rockets" you're either self aggrandizing or you are an immature, vindictive, middle school fanboy.
Knicks fans don't really care about the Rockets being the 4th seed. They see the Rockets as Harden and Howard's team. There is a LOT of Knicks fans who brought up Lin throughout the entire year due to Felton and Prigioni's awful play. It was bad enough that some Knicks boards had a defacto ban on Lin related posts. There is also the feeling that despite the balloon payment, a significant part of the collapse of the Knicks this season started with the loss of Lin for nothing. The Knicks however are in a very different position than the Rockets. The Knicks didn't have a PG prior to Lin and no way to acquire a decent PG (way over the cap and minimal assets to trade). The Knicks also got Lin for nothing (picked up off waivers). Lin walked for nothing (seen as a horrible mistake). The Knicks gave up multiple assets to "replace" the role of Lin (traded multiple players AND picks for Felton). Lin was horribly underpaid in his first year on the Knicks (people don't feel nearly as bad about him getting paid in the 3 year contract -- similar good will to Parsons). And Felton has been a total train wreck on BOTH ends of the floor. Folks here knock Lin's defense, but Felton makes him look like an all NBA defense 1st teamer. And offensively Lin's ability to penetrate, create and score was sorely missed by the Knicks this year, especially with serious fall offs in performance by Felton, JR Smith and Shumpert. The Knicks would most likely have been a play off team with Lin (or any competent PG) been on the roster. Additionally, there is the feeling that had Lin still been on the roster (and able to add his scoring and assists), there would not have been any pressure to acquire Bargnani (gave up picks AND players) who has turned out to be "as advertised" by Raptors fans (net negative player on the floor). So no, the Knicks fans don't really care that the Rockets are in 4th. They do still feel like letting Lin walk was a mistake. And would take Lin back in a flash over Felton. Really, the only glimmer of a hope for Knicks fans right now after their horrendous 2013/14 season is that Phil Jackson is on board and the team is starting over. Everyone expects the Head Coach to be fired and the Roster to be cleaned out. And many of the Knicks fans are at the point that they wouldn't even mind that much if Melo was run out of town as long as the Knicks got back a decent package.
Lin is worth a first round pick. Spoiler If he's on Bev's contract. And the pick is a late first round...
Lin's value right now is hard to assess... Outsiders have two general impressions of him... One is that he was a "flash in the pan" and will at best be an average NBA player.... The other is that he's an above average player who hasn't been used correctly on his current team. I suspect the latter case personally, only because not just Lin, but Dragic, Lowry, and even Aaron Brooks have all performed better in other teams' systems. The question now is how other teams' GMs perceive him. Which is likely different from how the fans perceive him. For Lin's sake, I'm sure a change of scenery would most likely rekindle his career.
The best news is the last year of the contract is finally here. I don't even care about the contract. Its more his lack of production. If he had produced like Jamal Crawford Im fine with him.
The point of this thread, from my understanding, is that since Lin is inevitably leaving, what can we get out of him. Most of us at this time view Lin as a completely negative value as an asset. While his salary cap hit is $8.3M, his actual salary is indisputably $15M. Lin fans are delusional if they think Rockets will be able to get rid of Lin early without giving someone up or if they think the current Lin is worth anything at all to other teams. Asik, for example, is worth much, much more than Lin and teams shied away because of the balloon payment. What makes any sane person think otherwise about Lin? He is what he is at this point; dead weight from a value perspective. At this point, I am just HOPING he does not hurt the Rockets and therefore his trade value even more come playoffs time. This postseason can be viewed as do or die for Lin.
You say you're surprised at how civil this thread has been and there hasn't been any name calling. You follow that up by calling certain posters morons in the next sentence. Awesome. I'm sorry that your hero has negative trade value.
Sorry, but this is SO wrong. Lowry and Dragic did not become scrubs or get worse when they joined the Rockets, same with AB. This is simply the ignorance of a Lin fan who knows nothing of Rockets. Lowry was ROTTING BEHIND CONLEY before the Rockets rescued him and then started him and let him shine. He excelled on our team and continued his improvements on the Raptors. Dragic was the same. We were able to flip AB for Dragic, BECAUSE HE WAS SUCKING IT UP IN PHOENIX THAT YEAR. He did great for us, especially after Lowry got hurt and he was promoted to starter. I also can't believe you would mention AB. He has not been the same since we traded him off. His performance with the Nuggets is simply what happens when he is hitting his shot and you keep feeding a hot shooter the ball. In a nut shell, PG's do not get worse when they come to Houston. We do not have a history or trend of PG's getting worse in Houston either. Stick to Lin buddy, because obviously you know **** about the Rockets and our past PG's.
