Limitations of Moreyball: Analysis of the Rockets Clutch Performances

Nice effort but

1.sample size
2. Free throws?

 

Did you use this as a resource? http://www.82games.com/1213/CSORT9.HTM

 

just lucky.

 

can someone summarize it?

 

Morey's generic answer is always "good teams avoid close games," which his blind followers love to repeat. The fact of the matter is that statement is silly. During an 82-game season close games are unavoidable, which is why it's important to have players who excel in those moments. Tightly contested games are especially prevalent as the playing field begins to level out during the post-season. Harden would obviously be the guy to turn to during these situations, but his style of play is less effective during the playoffs when refs swallow their whistles as the games wind down. Other than him, the options are very limited on this team.

 

While this is a great post and I commend you, OP, clutchness is really just a myth that is so strongly perpetrated by fans and media that the players, coaches and GMs themselves believe it. Due to more focused defenses the choice is between being much worse in the clutch than during the game (i.e., by playing hero ball, see Kobe) or by being about the same as during the game if you play smart.

 

Actually, James Harden went to the line more frequently during the playoffs than he did during the regular season. Also, the NBA as a whole went to the FT line more often during the playoffs than they did during the regular season last year-- possibly because many of the teams who suck at drawing fouls didnt make it to the playoffs. The refs didnt exactly swallow their whistle.

 

His answer is that people who play better in those moments is luck, this differs from the players who are of most value, excellent players who continue to play excellent in these situations (a cpl examples, chris paul can control the game at his own pace no matter how much focus there is, and durant's shot is so unstoppable, the hit and miss rests on him), it's the idea of getting role players who are "clutch" that is ridiculous.

 

This is wrong on so many level.

The statement "good teams avoid close games" does not imply that all clutch stats should be completely forgone. It simply means that one should not put as much weight on the clutch factor as the rest of a player's game. You don't build a team to be "clutch", you build a team to dominate and win.

Fact of the matter is, championship teams or contenders win most of their games by a decent margin. You strive to be the team that wins big, not focus on becoming the team that wins close. A 60 win team that loses 70% of their close games is still a much better team than the 45 win team that wins 70% of their close games.

Your last statement is also false because Harden averaged 3 FTAs in the 4th quarter in the playoffs. Considering that Harden averaged 11 FTAs a game in the playoffs (which by the way is also more than his regular season averages), refs certainly aren't swallowing their whistles.

 

Vernon Maxwell and Robert Horry are just two examples that disprove this notion. When a guy does it over and over and over again, it's more than just luck.

Of course everyone strives to be the team that wins big, but that's the image you construct. The reality is different. The reality is that there are going to be close games and there are going to be nights where you're blown out in the regular season and playoffs. If a team loses an absolute majority of its close games (i.e. 70%), there's a good chance that you're not going to win a championship. Take the the Heat in 2013...during the post-season they lost 50% of their close games. If they would have lost one more close game, which would have made them a team that lost 62.5% of their close games (less than the 70% figure that you use), they're most likely getting eliminated in either the ECF or NBA Finals. They almost were eliminated anyway having only lost 50% of their close games.

Also, the 93-94 Seattle Sonics won 63 games, but were eliminated in the first round. The Dallas Mavericks in 2006-07 won 67 games and were eliminated in the first round as well. Last, the Houston Rockets in 95-96 won 47 games (very close to the 45 game win total that you use) and won 63% of their close games during the post-season (again very close to the 70% figure that you use) and they won a championship.

I wasn't referring to the entire 4th qtr. I was just making a general observation that as tight games wind down (last 2 or 3 mins) referees have a tendency to let players decide the outcome. Therefore going to the basket and receiving contact and hoping that you'll get to the line is less likely going to be called unless it's egregious.

 

I'm guessing you don't count the times their shots missed, neither of those players suddenly became better shooters at the end of games (but there are certainly players who lose their nerve in those moments), the whole clutch thing is a product of selection bias and group think.

 

No just clutchness

 

I only really have one thing to say about clutch play.

If you are consistantly superior to the player defending you, you will tend to be more "clutch" because you can beat that man. If you are good enough on a level that you can beat multiple defenders you will be more "clutch" more often and you have the added option to make the players around you more "clutch" by getting them open shots. Great players are clutch because they are better than the people trying to stop them.

It isn't rocket science.... or is it?

 

OK

Excellent article and I appreciate the time and effort you put into it.

I also had some misgivings and wasn't disappointed by the replies you had received as they asked what I would have.

I did see where one asked and wasn't answered and that is the FT clutch. We did see and talk about the 3 point shots that won or tied the games and those do show us a lot but players to me at least that can take being fouled and then going to the FT line and draining that shot is truly clutch.

We all probably remember the 1st game of that Championship series against the Magic when Anderson who was a good FT shooter miss 4 FT's in a row and only one being made would have sealed the win. And then Kenny Smith going down and draining the 3 pointer to tie the game and send it to overtime. Anderson choked at clutch time but Kenny came through.

Fast forward to last years playoffs and OKC fouling Asik and then Omer making the FT's that sealed the win for us. To me at least Omer was the definition of clutch and won us that important game. He also did it during the playoffs where the pressure could hardly have been higher.

 

wow

No need to work so hard. I am older and FT's used to be more important in the past then it is now. Just what Omer did made me feel like we were clutch city again even if it was for one game.

I did notice that Morey grabbed several good 3 point shooters this off season even if it was advanced stats that showed that. Looks like we are going with the surround Howard with 3 point shooting so FT's are not going to be important next year.