Limitations of Moreyball: Analysis of the Rockets Clutch Performances

Great post. Thanks for the effort that went into putting this together.

 

Great work and definitely interesting!

It would be great if there was a breakdown to how many of those made clutch shots were assisted vs unassisted. It would at least give you an idea on how much defensive pressure a player was facing. Furthermore, it would be great to see who assisted on those clutch makes.

 

This is exactly what happens, and it is the difference between someone that can hit an open shot, and someone that can create their own shot and create open shots for others by drawing a double team.

The ball goes through Harden in crunch time PERIOD. He decides if he has a shot, or whom to kick it to. Parsons and Lin both are capable of hitting open shots.

 

82games.com

with less then 5min left

Harden 12% assisted
Lin 44%
Parsons 67%

 

This.

Also, even if their is disagreement as to what the statistics actually measure, and what the possible implications are, the work you put into this matter is appreciated and people doing what you are doing is how we ever come to a conclusive measure.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Excited to do an AMA on reddit this Friday at 3PM ET/2PM CT. Will try not to get fined. <a href="http://t.co/piJygO6awn">http://t.co/piJygO6awn</a></p>&mdash; Daryl Morey (@dmorey) <a href="https://twitter.com/dmorey/statuses/368054820000657408">August 15, 2013</a></blockquote>
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Just an fyi, just noticed and didn't think it needed a thread.

 

The maturity of this thread is quite refreshing. Thanks, VoA!



Btw, trueroxfan - just in case you missed it...
http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=243069

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Great read, can't wait to read more of your upcoming posts/articles.

 

I hear voices from downunder. great stuff.

 

Great post. Thanks for the time and I definitely look forward to part deus!
I would love to see the video clips that you collected from all the clutch plays last year. Were there any other significant, even subjective, patterns that you noticed around our clutch-time strategy?

 

I think he was trying to get down to who is most capable of making points in the clutch regardless of the type of shot. It's difficult if not impossible to take into account every single possible variable.

Voice of Aus
Great Read! Enjoyed the effort and the post.

I'm curious how Harden, Lin and CP25 compare to other players with similar usage rates on other teams. I know you mentioned CP3.

Keep up the nice articles, this is the kind of article that would look good on the front page IMO.

 

It's always nice to see some effort in the analysis, but I must say you missed the biggest aspect of why Morey doesn't believe in clutchness, which is luck factor.

The limit of moneyball, not Moreyball because it's not introduced by Morey but by baseball analytics, is that it based on the fundamental concept of luck being analyzable in the long term, but not the short term. In the short term, stats that have small sample size cannot be given weight because it's unreliable in the long run. And 1-year player clutch stats are the definition of small sample size. Don't believe me? Check out 82games clutch rankings from year to year. In the long term though, the theory goes, the concept of clutchness disappears.

If you don't believe me, here's a chart of +/- of all teams within a 5 years span up to 2012. Scroll down a bit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40886/outscoring-opponents-in-the-clutch

It's a chart that basically runs all over the place. Some nuggets.

1. Do you think the Spurs clutch? Well, they've been outscored 2 out of 5 years in clutch situations.
2. You mention how young teams are supposedly "less clutch". Yet the Durant/Westbrook/Harden Thunder teams were more clutch in 2011 than 2012, the latter of which they went to the finals.
3. Who had a better crunch time +/-? Scola/Lowry/Dragic Rockets or LeBron/Wade/Bosh Heat in 2012? Yeah, the latter was still the best team in the NBA and the former was still mediocrity.

Morey has some of the best analytical people working for him. If there truly is something to clutch play, then he would've found it before everyone else.

 

What I am saying is that whenever you do reseach or a project relying on statistics as a measure of performance, there will be debate as to whether the statistics actually measure the performance or are limited. There will be debate and controversy, as there is in this thread..... however, there is value in the exercise and putting your neck on the line..... ultimately, the only way we arrive at generally accepted measures is by doing what you have done, attempt to reach a conclusion based on what information. Scrutiny will emerge, variables will be added and subtracted and ultimately we arrive at some close measure of actual performance.