I think the long misses might be taking rebounders away from the glass. I think the stats show what offensive rebounds we get, and that those are the shots taken closer to the basket. Just my hunch here.
DMo is a bad rebounder in the sense that he is poor in grabbing the ball in his vicinity. That kind of weakness is pretty much not fixable. It is related to reaction time, explosiveness, athleticism, and the so-called nose for the ball. All of these are inborn talents. However, a player's impact on rebounding is not only due to his ability to grab the ball. As Morey has mentioned some time ago, even rebounding numbers can be somewhat misleading because when you get the ball in a play, your teammates don't. In a sense, in rebounding, you are not only competing with the opposing players but also your own teammates. One of the most mentioned rebounding techniques is boxing out. If you box out properly, it does not always help you get the ball, but it does always prevent at least one of the opposing players from getting close to the ball. So one of the most meaningful rebounding stats is the +/- of TEAM rebounding%. the raw number is probably not useful. But some kind of adjusted +/- number would shows how a player impacts team rebounding when he is playing. (I don't know where we can find that number.) Team stats are the only meaningful stats when it comes to winning. Individual stats are useful only in analyzing where problems are on the micro level. But individual stats have to be adjusted to a LOT of contextual factors.
I am sure that a lack of hustle plays into the defensive rebounding woes, but the types of shots that result in offensive rebounds is something worth looking into.
Offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding are two very different animals. Offensive rebounding is mostly individual physical talent. It's like playing linebacker in football. You beat the blocker, find the ball carrier, and make the tackle. Defensive rebounding is like playing offensive line in football. Other than physical size, you have to have the proper technique, footwork, and team oriented effort. In other words, offensive rebounding is about talent. Defensive rebounding is about techniques and teamwork. It is pretty clear techniques and teamwork, not individual talent, is our glaring weakness.
Your comment made me think. We are talking about two 3PAs per game less this year, and are converting them at a slightly less effective %. So my point about long 3s being a reason for less defensive rebounds isn't helped by these figures. I would still like to know the types of shots that are yielding us offensive rebounds. Is there a way to figure that out with already collected stats?
Well overall, the Rockets are a bad rebounding team, and I don't think it's Capella or Howard. Which really just leaves the PFs. The individual numbers aren't really important to me, unless it's an area of concern and we are looking at the breakdowns. For example, years ago, Patrick Patterson was constantly criticized for his rebounding, but we were 2nd in the league, so who really cared. I guess it could be systematic, but what is the theory there? Trying too hard for fast breaks?
Its fairly clear the biggest departure from last year is on the defensive end. And the insight you provided points to team cohesion, or lack there of. Since the team philosophy via coaching staff is basically the same, there seems only two conclusions: 1) Somehow the players have become confused/uncertain what they are supposed to be doing and when. The non-verbal communication queues that existed last year have become 5 individuals trying to think (or not) their way to whats needed and when rather than having that that sixth sense about it. One or two guys deviating from what the others expect or assume can throw a wrench in the whole effort. 2) Laziness and/or lack of effort. In other words, the guys know what to do, but just are not doing it consistently.
But what about the absolute FACTS that my eyes tell me that Harden just about always walks the ball up the court barely beating the 8 second clock then proceeds to hold the ball for the next 12-15 seconds before either bricking a 3, passing off for a shot, that my eyes tell me are ALWAYS bad looks, or turning it over. Happens at least 95% of the time by my memory. No stats needed man. My eyes got this.
I agree with that. We're jacking at an historic rate and missing more long balls than any team ever. There is a proven corellation between the 3-ball and offensive rebounding. Good thread Opie. And good input Mr. Clutch. This is good discussion. This thread goes right along with my lineups thread. Below is a table of opponent team shooting percentages. This table corroborates our defensive rebounding and defensive issues. We are undoubtedly leading the league in opponent bunny putbacks. We see it multiple times a game where the opponent breaks us down or simply passes to the high post and Dwight (or Capela in our small-ball combos) is forced outside the paint to challenge the shooter. Shot is missed and opponent taps it home or gets the board and putback. This single play happens so often it puts us dead last in opponent 2-point FG%. This is why I'm advocating bringing in a 3rd big that can make Capela the 4th big. Capela has been great alongside Dwight. But you run Capela out there at the 5 without a beast rebounder beside him and we get hurt. Capela is left naked out there all the time because guys aren't rotating and they're not big/long enough to hold off the opponent when they do rotate. Neither DMo nor Terrence are the answer to this issue. We've gotta have that second anchor behind Dwight that allows Capela and DMo to split minutes at the 4-spot. This is why I keep advocating trading for guys like Noah, Nene, Pau (slight chance), or some other brute that will give us 20+% defensive rebounding. As far as Dwight's and Lawson's turnovers go it's exactly what JBB says. There is a trust issue. And it starts with Harden. Harden is the first player who has to exhibit trust because Harden is the first player that abandoned trust by voiding other possible playmakers and doing everything himself. What that leads to is guys trying to do too much with the basketball whenever they touch it because Harden is denying them touches. Anybody that's played this game understands the phenomena. Mr. Ballhog either takes the shot or runs down the clock and then passes when there is no time left to do anything but shoot it. So what happens to guys when the ball finds them with 18 seconds left on the clock? Are they going to pass the ball in favor of the right play? Are they going to TRUST that they will see the ball again? No. They're going to look at the opportunity to make a play. No trust leads to no ball movement leads to no player movement leads to turnovers and poor shooting percentages. Another very basic reason Dwight's turnovers are high is because of forced entry passes. Dwight has great hands. He catches stuff he has no business catching. But our entry passes are so poor and ill-timed he's gonna fumble some of them. They throw him the ball low constantly. These are professionals, mind you. I can still remember my bigs teaching me not to throw the ball at their legs when I was in 9th grade. They'd stop practice and tell coach they were going to cut me into pieces if I kept doing it. I learned to throw the ball up in 9th grade. It's like these guys have forgotten all those lessons. They don't find Dwight early. They force it to him late and low. He cleans up the messes as much as he can and he gets pinned with the turnover when he can't corral a crappy bounce pass in traffic. Yes, Dwight gets pinned with turnovers on a lot of those plays. This all starts and ends with James Harden. He's pissed off he lost the MVP to Steph. Therefore he's chasing the MVP and a championship at the same time. He's got dueling goals and it's hurting this team.
^ The defensive rebounding issues may stem from defensive breakdowns, but it was bad last year to despite the team having a very good defense. So what would be the explanation for that?
Getting Smoove brought us up to a neutral rebounding position versus the league and ignited our second unit defense. We never replaced Smoove and his D and rebounding combined with his offensive randomness led us to being outperformers. Smoove was one player that didn't automatically throw the ball to Harden. He was undoubtedly our best entry passer to Dwight. And he was fearless to pull up and Jack it if the defense played off him. I've said from the moment that we lost him that his defense and rebounding had to be replaced or our bench unit, which led us to many wins with him anchoring the middle would be woefully lacking.
Lack of FOCUS IMO. The teams biggest issue is lack of focus period. How do they beat OKC, (blowout) Clippers and (a fully healthy) Spurs? When the team comes out playing hard and focused on defense they look like a top 2 or 3 team in the league. And when not focused their losing to the Nets and Sixers ect.
I don't know what the stats show pre/post Smith last year with regard to various stats. I do know that the story that Josh Smith is the reason the team has taken a step back seems ludicrous to me. He provided some things. He made some things worse. Moreover, while he and Brewer clearly strengthened the second unit, it should be noted the Rockets were 20-7 before Smith's first game (75% wins) and 36-19 after (65%). Clearly, good Josh Smith is missed. But you didn't get that every game... and I don't think that inconsistency and his overall attitude would help much this year. As for the rest of the thread, it is nice, good to have math and stats, nice that the stats back up the eye test, etc. But the eye test does get you there. Offensive decline, specifically with regards to efficiency. Large defensive decline. And one can poo-poo the non-qualitative comments as much as they want, but it is also clear that there are some personality/personal/etc. issues that relate to chemistry that are plaguing the team. I've said this before regarding the offense. James and Dwight both just need to back faster decisions. That's it. It's simple. When you get the ball, just move a little faster. No more "sizing up the opponent" for 2 seconds. Just make a fast move. That and just shooting, shooting, shooting for James. They all obviously need to do the stupid things like "try harder, work together as a team" defensively. But there are also plenty of roster things to be done. Finally, the "real issue" of Dwight, and to trade him or not. I think you clearly do. Even if he is OBVIOUSLY the teams best and most important defensive player, WITH HIM, with him playing more than he did last year, etc. the team is worse defensively. And it isn't his fault, but it just is. And it has become VERY hard to envision any scenario whereby this squad wins a championship this year. So you are in the offseason, with Dwight as a free agent, and stuck between overpaying him (sucks) or losing him for nothing (sucks).
