Without knowing the actual cap for next year you can't know Dwight's actual max salary. That's why I said that it's not likely to be more than $33m.EDIT: The prior post was regarding Bird Rights and the point was that unless Dwights new starting salary exceeded his cap hold ($33m) then his bird rights were useless. As you've pointed out he likely can't make that amount so his bird rights don't matter. The projected cap is $89m. The max for Durant (7-9 years experience) is 30% of the cap. That works out to a starting salary of $26.7m. so under your scenarios above they work out like this : a) if you first sign Dwight for $25 and then Durant for $26.7 then you need $51.7m If you had signed Durant first then you would have needed $59.7m in cap space. b) I'm assuming that Whiteside would get the max that he's eligible for which is 25% of the cap. That comes to $22.5 so I'll use that number. You'd need the sum of the two salaries which is $22.5M + $26.7M = $49.2M If you believe the salaries on basketball-reference then here's what you're looking at for next offseason (assuming current roster): If you don't pickup option on Lawson and renounce Terry, Jones, Smith and Thorton. You include a cap hold of $5.75m to retain D-Mo's bird rights. That leaves you with $51.6M in committed salary. You'd have less than 12 players on the roster so you'd have an incomplete roster exception for 3 empty roster spots. That's approximately $500k each for a total of $1.5M. That would leave you with somewhere just under $36M in cap space. I did this quickly so check my math.
Aside from a slighly lower TS%, lower fg% and 3 pt % Harden is essentially having the nearly the same offensive output as last years MVP caliber season. However that fact doesn't preclude the possibility that he doesn't care or is not in the same physical condition, because theirs the all too real possibility he simply doesn't care or is incapable of it on the defensive side of the game. His lack of effort and lack of effectiveness on defense is glaringly bad. On a team with one of the worst transition defense in the league, he is the main culprit. On one of the worst defensive teams in the league he has one of the worst defensive rate on the team. Individual defensive stats are of course very limited, but Hardens lack of effort and terrible defense has been noted and commented on by many of the best writers/analyst that follow the nba, including Zach Lowe, Matt Moore, Zach Harper, Mannix, Thorpe, coach Nick and Nate Duncan. Is it possible, everyone is wrong and simply reading into the narrative? That the defensive stats is wrong and that Harden is in fact trying just as hard this year on defense and just as effective? Is it possible his defensive performance is not related to being in shape or effort? Sure, I guess... But after watching Harden continually not rotate, call for randoms switches so he doesn't have to move, not stay in front of his man with the ball or lose track of his man w/out the ball, I venture that effort/care is the more likely culprit.
My point was simply that if he can post those numbers at that efficiency while being out of shape and not caring, then he is obviously the most talented offensive player in history. Only a handfull of players in history can post those numbers even when they are in top shape and trying as hard as possible. BTW it was a sarcastic remark to demonstrate how ridiculous all the Harden hate is these days.
He's also posting career highs by far in turnovers metrics. He's also taking a career low percentage of shots at the rim, which speaks to being out of shape
Harden is indeed a bad defender. I would say terrible in fact but I don't think it's due to lack of effort. I would put it on coaching and usage. I would also say that Harden was effected more than we think from his offseason injuries. I also believe that if you simply look at the evidence you would see Harden has always been a bad defender here most notably the 2013-2014 season. We were successful then so the culprit has got to be that the new players we've added are also bad at defense as well as the fact that we lost Smith and the regression of key defensive players in defense Bev (Injury) Dwight (Injuries) Ariza (No idea) Brewer (Awful for no reason).
Yes, he is averaging an additional 0.5 turnovers per game this season. Congratulation, you've uncovered the source of all our problems...it's that one additional turnover every two games. Why do you care how many times he drives as long as he's still efficient? Do you think the way that opposing defenses are playing have anything to do with that? Even at his curent rate how many players drive more? We currently aren't good enough to worry about style points. If we aren't efficient then that's a problem. Worrying about how we accomplish that efficiency is pointless. For all I care Harden can shoot 30 free throws per game and never attempt a fg.
His TOV% is 16 vs a previous high of 15. It's a significant jump, and it's the main reason he's posting his worst ORtg since his rookie year (114). Again, I'm not sure why Harden defenders have become enamored with volume stats all of a sudden. Harden's success is mainly because of his drives. They are efficient shots and opens up opportunities for his 3pters. He's keeping up his efficiency because he's hitting a good amount of 2 point jumpers, but I'm concerned that isn't as sustainable as layups and 3s, which has been his bread and butter.
Noted, I somehow missed the sarcasm. My only point was that, its entirely possible and even common for a player to perform exceedingly well and to be totally focused on one side of the ball while at the same time exerting little or no effort on the other side. Matt Moore made the same point I was about Harden on Friday and funny enough Zach Harper only half facetiously posited the theory that Harden is so incredibly talented offensively that he is posting these offensive numbers without really trying! But yes, some of Harden hate is ridiculous and like the obsessive hate for Tjones, Lin, Tmac, Alston, JVG and others in the past, is almost normal for the GARM. Yes I am unfortunately aware. In fact, I posted yesterday that Harden is on pace to set the single season record for turnovers in a season. But despite that, its undeniable that he is still performing better offensively than all but a handful of players in the league. The focus on the Rockets and on Harden, shouldn't be on offense, but rather defense and effort.
Yeah I agree that defense is the key. I just don't think Harden is quite as good as usual on the offensive end despite the volume stats
The two stats is specifically referred was related to Hardens transition defense and defensive rate. Specifically - Per NBA.com/Stats, the Rockets allow 14.7 fast-break points per 48 minutes with Harden on the court (a rate that would be sixth worst in the NBA) and just 11.9 with him on the bench (13th best in the league) and Houston has allowed 4.4 more points per 100 possessions this season with Harden on the court. Harden w/o Howard has a 108.7 defensive rating. I believe Harden's drpm is significantly lower than last season, but I didn't refer to it. DRPM, like defensive rate stats, +/- and fg% against etc are all great stats, but I just think they aren't quite as accurate as offensive stats atm. Personally I'm not a fan of fg% against stats, since just fg% isnt really that informative, unless accompanied by fouls, efg or ts as well as quanity.
Also 5 man RAPM: @JerryEngelmann: Defending worse than even the Lakers units is [Ariza, Beverley, Harden, Howard, Jones] Probably can be blamed on Harden and Jones
Why do you continue to quote TOV%? In a prior thread we already discussed this and I pointed out that TOV% is an estimate because Bball-reference doesn't have the actual number of possession. I also told you that NBA.com does track actual possession so they have the real numbers. We discussed it so I know that you already know this. Harden's real rate of turnovers/per 100 possessions is 12.8%. It's on the NBA site all you have to do is look. So why do you continue to quote a misleading estimated number of 16 when the real number (12.8) is readily available? That's the only way you can try and push your agenda? For the THIRD time, those are not volume stats. You don't understand what volume stats are. Please stop using that term. Yes, drives are efficient shots as are 3 pointers and free throws. He's being efficient and taking what is available. If he stops being efficient then complain. Harden had been efficient every season, him suddenly becoming inefficient isn't likely. As I said in my prior post, as long as he's being efficient then it doesn't matter how he's doing it. While worrying about what might happen in the future did it occur to you that he's much more likely to be injured on drives than other plays?
NBA.com also shows an increase in his turnover rate, from 11.8 to 12.8. Actually a higher % increase. So it doesn't matter which stat you use. That is easily a career high. TOV% isn't per possession, it's per play. Turnovers per game is a volume stat. Really, he should stop driving because he might get injured? That's a new one. It's not that the shot isn't available, it's that he's been out of shape so can't get to the rim as easily as he used to.
So in reality what does that extra 1% mean? It means that he has 1 more turnover every two games (0.5/game). Half a turnover per game is what's causing our problems? Really? That's what you've latched on to? Sounds much more serious until you bother to determine what the real result of that change is. Do you truly believe that 1 extra turnover over a two game span is "significant"? You also didn't answer my question: Why do you continue to post a misleading estimate when you already know it isn't accurate and you know that the accurate number is available on the NBA site? The only time that I referenced TO/Game was to point out that you were going on and on about something that ended up being up a net of half a turnover per game. I just did the same thing above. I wasn't enamored with that stat, I was just pointing out how ridiculous your argument was. BTW just so you know, you'll often see Analytics experts quote non-advanced stats when they are qualified with advanced stats. Why would they do that? It's because it helps to provide a point of reference. Take efficiency for an example. Typically efficiency goes down as the number of attempts goes up. A player only taking a few optimal shots is more likely to be efficient than a player who has to carry an offense and take a higher volume of shots. So, if I have two players that are both shooting a TS% of 60% then it's informative to know that player a is attempting 9 shots per game and player b is attempting 19 shots per game. The point is that is generally harder to have that same efficiency level when you are taking twice the number of shots. You have to have some point of reference. I could quote stats for a player shooting a TS% of 70% but if he's only attempting 3 shots per game then it's not very meaningful. If someone says that Curry is averaging 30pts/game on 67% TS% it's not emphasizing the pts/game. It's simply a way to quantify his amazing ts%. That TS% at that volume is much more amazing than the TS% alone. I didn't say that he should stop driving now did I? Driving to the basket and drawing fouls is extra wear and tear on you body, that's no secret. Dwayne Wade is the perfect example: This continual willingness to recklessly throw his body at defenders has taken its toll. Wade has suffered a number of serious and nagging injuries throughout his career, and he hasn't played 70 or more games in a season since the 2010-2011 campaign http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ow-how-flash-is-reinventing-his-game-with-age The continual contact and falls takes it toll. I'm not disclosing anything that most people didn't already know. The point was to demonstrate that there's better things to worry about than how Harden scores his points. If you say so then it must be true. You're probably right though, if teams were packing the lane on us then Howards shot attempts would also be down and our overall points in the paint would be down...oh wait...they are.
I have to spread rep before I can give it to ya again, lol. This post would be well worth the rep though.
This is a crazy post, LMAO. Again Harden has always been a bad defender so if they are worse as a whole now what could that possibly mean?? Maybe other people have regressed possibly??
