OK, I'm already so sick and tired of all the defenders of Morey's draft night busts and Moneyball B.S. that I'm willing to make a long standing bet... This involves all the PF players who the "draft experts" projected as late first rounders (including Rudy and Morris), vs. the 3 we drafted. If in 3-5 years, one or more of those players (Fazekas, Big Baby, Josh McRoberts, Tiago Splitter, Morris, or Rudy) ends up as either an All Star or with a Champ Ring on their finger, then they will have by all assessments made a bigger impact on their new teams than our picks (unless our picks turn into a trade for someone who can see over their defender.) I will of course allow that bet to include playing time comparisons, etc. (For example, if Tiago gets a ring but doesn't play, I won't consider that an "I told you so"). So, my bet is $25 for each year that passes in the Tip Jar from me vs. the same vs. anyone who takes me up on the bet.... Or something similar. Perhaps it should only be who stays in the league the longest..... I don't know, but I'm saying most of the B-Ball world was right about those guys and Morey is SOOOOOOOO frickin wrong that it is now, laughable!!!!
Using your criteria, from the 2004 draft, Beno Udrih (ring on finger) would be a better player than Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, Al Jefferson, Shaun Livingston, Josh Childress, Devin Harris, Ben Gordon, and many others. Would you make this claim or would you agree that your methodology is faulty?
Tiago Splitter will kick asses. We are drooling for Brazilian forwards: Nene and Varajeo; but Splitter is the best one.
Rudy and Morris went in the two spots immediately before the "alleged" best player available and I'm saying if our GM had any balls whatsoever, he could have easily purchased the rights to the #24 pick that the Suns gave up to Portland and THAT would have enabled us to pick either Morris or Rudy.... On other drafts and other teams, I could care less, because I was NOT invested in seeing a #4 seed make it out of the first round like I am with the Team we LOVE who has not made it out of the first round in ten years. All other comparisons to success other than winning are essentially useless, but I'm willing to entertain bets on other comparisons if that's your desire...
So you would say that Beno Udrih was a successful pick that the Spur's success was a result of him, but that Emeka Okafor was a wasted pick. That you would defend that type of methodology speaks to the validity of your opinion on the Rocket's draft.
Ottomaton - Thanks for your "grey" area thinking there big guy.... My original bet was about individual achievements by these players (All Star appearances, or maybe All NBA team, Defensive Player or 6th Man votes, etc) So, though my comment about winning was based on TEAM ACHEIVEMENT, my original thread was about comparing our picks to those we passed on or didn't make enough effort to get!!!!! But whatever else you do... make sure you keep an open mind!!!!
My point, to spell it out for you, is that anybody drafted in the late first/early second on a championship team will almost definately not be intigral to the aforementioned championship.
I'm willing to bet $20/year for 3 years (tip jar) that Fazekas, Big Baby, Josh McRoberts or Tiago Splitter will not be anything special. Like most people, my initial reaction was wtf? with our first two picks but after a little research I am glad we selected them. If, any of those four are solid contributers, I lose. If they are just bench warmers or wimpy role players, you lose. If Brooks or Landry becomes a solid contributer and one of your four is a solid contributer, it's a wash. If both our picks are SC and only one of yours is, you lose. If one of ours is a SC and two+ of yours is, I lose. Understand? Basically it's our first two picks vs your four picks. Obviously the odds are on your side, but I have faith in our organization.
Chow - You're on. I guarantee that at least one of those players will become a solid role player on a contender. I think Big Baby has the most upside if he works hard enough to keep his weight down!!!! But I did/do want the bet to include Rudy and Morris because those are they guys we could/should have had. If you'll agree to include those two, I'll extend the bet to 5 years!!!!
No way, haha. That's too risky for me and they were selected ahead of us. I think we would've selected Rudy/Morris if they fell. The only problem is, what is the definition of a SC? Your definition might be different from mines so let's iron this out before we bet.
Chow, this is EXACTLY THE PROBLEM with the ROX approach to the draft.... Other teams jumped through unbelieveable hoops (sorry for the pun) to get "their" guys in the draft, both 1st and 2nd round guys. The ROX stood by and watched as Utah, Seattle, Lakers, Golden State and maybe even the Clippers marched right past us toward playoff berths. What did we do? We stood around, with our pants around our ankles, pissed ourselves and then came up with a Public Relations spin job around the dreck nobody else wanted in the first round!!!!! We simply has the worst draft in the league, and I for one will be grateful when everyone on this board stops defending the crap this WEALTHY WEALTHY WEALTHY organization pulled last night. It was Bush League stuff and their selling it based on a theory that the NBA has changed so much.... This is exactly how the U.S. got into Iraq!!!!
The Rockets have told you which one player they thought was best for them. It's only fair you tell us which one player would've been your pick. It makes no sense to say "one or more" of a list of players will be better... that's like giving you an unfair advantage. So which player do you like?
Why would Phoenix give a pick to the Rockets, a team that just needs maybe 2 good pick-ups and a little luck to have a chance to beat the Suns over the Trailblazers who, despite all the great young players they now have, will take a few years to be good enough to really compete in the playoffs? Also realize that Portland's current GM used to work for Phoenix, so he probably had an inside ear, etc. to get that done. There are a lot of politics and back-patting and stuff that goes on that we will never know about, don't just assume that Morey is idiot who couldn't get this done.
Yay for some Rocket fans with faith. I would get into the bet too, but I'm a poor med student. p.s. Will give a physical for food?
You do realize that the odds that any of those players will be better than the ones the Rockets chose will be high, if only because you're basically comparing the field to two players. You could do the same anywhere else in the draft after the lottery picks and say the same thing, i.e., better players will be drafted later.
In response to Dr. of Dunk - In probably 5-7 separate pre-draft threads on this Board, I advocated that we choose Almond Joy. The guy will never be the defensive stopper that Battier is, but Battier will NEVER be the offensive threat that Morris Almond is. With a BIG 2/3 who's greatest talent is shooting the ball, who could assure the ROX of having perimeter shooting when TMAC is not on the floor to draw double-teams, this is the guy that most scouts who evaluated for SHOOTING ABILITY combined with ATHLETICISM at the Wing said was the consensus pick!!!!!!! Only because Belinelli came over, had a GREAT DRAFT CAMP, and reminded people of Manu did he get picked ahead of Almond. That's the guy I truly believe the ROX wanted. Fernandez and Belinelli may become "Manu-lite" but Almond may become the next Glen Rice. Think of a young Glen Rice on this team in last year's playoffs. No way the ROX lose to the Jazz. And now, because the ROX had their thumbs planted firmly in their asses last night, the Jazz will be ahead of the ROX for a LONG, LONG time, simply because the Jazz addressed their greatest weakness, and we added to ours!!!!!! As for the bet, I still think you guys are selling short the other PF prospects that came after #26. After all, anyone and everyone keeps saying this was the deepest draft since 2003 and maybe for a long time to come. Now, if push came to shove and all the conspirary theory politics of NBA deal making made it impossible for me to choose Morris... (which I think is crap considering the Suns went out of their way to make the Blazers, {a division rival} assured of competing for the division NEXT YEAR!!!!) I still would have taken either Splitter or Big Baby. Both will have better NBA Careers than Landry or our newest Midget PG.!!! Morey is a frickin' idiot!!!
