As I always say...Stats (such as DEFRTG or +/- or pretty much any stat) are useful TOOLS to HELP ASSIST in an overall evaluation of a player - but they are not the end all... Theoretically, if CC is our only real rim protector... then it would stand to reason that players #'s are going to be greatly skewed based on who's on the floor when he is - and who's on the floor when he aint... Flow of the game can be a big factor... if a team is down 30 pts in the 4th qtr... odds are they're running down and heaving up 3pt shots trying to make up an insurmountable deficit... not working the ball inside for the best shot... If a team is up by 30 with 5 mins left... odds are they're giving up some easy buckets - as long as its chewing up some clock.... and not so worried about scoring themselves as long as time is running off... This is why all the JR Morey Analytics Club members can really annoy me... stuff doesnt happen in a vacuum - but thats not how most chose to present the information... ...jus sayin....
I'm not trying to argue that his stats are a long term predictor of anything. Just pointing out that he really hasn't done anything to justify that he cant shoot or play defense based on his performance since he's been here. When he comes back, if his shooting goes to MCW-like levels, then theres a basis for saying that he cant shoot. That would be fair. Claiming that a guy that is shooting 43% on threes cant shoot and pretending that Ariza was an elite (or even above average) 3 point shooter is ridiclous.
I’ve been watching Melo closely each game on defense. It’s been a mixture of good and bad. There are plenty of fingers that can point to many culprits. DefRtg (definition): “number of points allowed per 100 possessions by a team. For a player, it’s the number of points per 100 possessions a team allows while that individual player is on the court.” Thru 5 games (Houston player DRtg) of 18-19: per basketball-reference.com Player.........................DRtg Eric Gordon..................121 James Ennis.................120 Gary Clark....................120 Gerald Green...............119 Melo.............................118 Hartenstein...................117 Capela..........................116 MCW.............................116 CP3...............................116 Harden..........................115 Tucker...........................115 Player............................ORtg Hartenstein.....................125 CP3.................................118 Capela.............................115 Tucker..............................115 Harden.............................114 Ennis................................113 Gerald Green...................113 Melo.................................103 Gary Clark........................102 Eric Gordon......................90 MCW.................................85 Eric Gordon must be letting trade talks bother him: 90 ORtg and 121 DRtg. Stat/NBA.com has: Melo DRtg as 116.1 w/ 0.016 Def WS MCW DRtg as 117.5 w/ 0.001 Def WS CP3 DRtg as 117.9 w/ 0.001 Def WS Harden DRtg as 114.2 w/ 0.038 On/off: per basketball-reference.com (see play-by-play) https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2019.html Player....................On-Court.........................Off-Court Melo........................ -11.9.............................. -10.3 CP3......................... -15.9............................. -13.0 MCW....................... -17.2............................. -13.4 Player...........................Def >15 ft...........................................Def< 6ft Melo...............................33.3 DFG% (Good)...............................82.1 DFG% (Bad) CP3................................54.5 DFG% (Bad).................................80.0 DFG% (Bad) Ennis..............................75.0 DFG% (Terrible)............................80.0 DFG% (Bad) Harden...........................36.4 DFG%...........................................76.2 DFG% GG.................................38.9 DFG%............................................62.5 DFG% Tucker............................24.2 DFG%............................................60.0 DFG% Eric Gordon....................46.2 DFG%............................................66.7 DFG% Summary: points in the paint are killing the Rockets. Melo gets hunted in PnR switch on the perimeter almost no every play.....So not all points in the paint are coming from Melo letting players get by him. CP3 and EGo are struggling mightily defensively. Players are late to rotating and the “Freedom of Movement” is hurting players like Tucker and CP3 who are getting called for fouls constantly for putting hands on the opponents hips........contributing to points tacked on by way of FT’s. All Rockets players are also having trouble with the new rule. Seems like Rockets players get targeted more than other players/teams. Maybe I’m biased.
You are mixing your stats. You posted the definition of DefRtg (from nba site) but the stats that you posted are dRtg (from bball-reference). Those are two different things. DefRtg is an actual and dRtg is an estimate based on a formula. You are absolutely correct about points in the paint. We weren't good last year but we are 12 points worse this year.
I believe that this is the stat that was quoted. https://stats.nba.com/players/defen...9&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612745 DFG% is the fg% for shots defended at the rim. Anthony's percentage has gone down to 85.7% after last game. A couple of things to keep in mind. -Players don't defend a large number of shots at the rim over the course of the season -those numbers are always pretty high. For example, over the course of all last season, Tucker allowed 71.1% on shots at the rim and Ariza allowed 76%.
Ok Melo can be found on page 7. Player #313 (number of games are indicated). I normally go by basketball-reference. https://stats.nba.com/players/defense/?sort=DEF_WS&dir=-1 edited: MCW is #347 and CP3 is #348. Now that I look at it again......CP3 is negative 0.001 Def WS
Ok......Gerald Green definitely needs to play more. per stats.nba.com https://stats.nba.com/team/1610612745/onoffcourt-summary/ Player................ORtg......................................................DRtg......................... GG:.......On-Court.......Off-Court.......................On-Court..........Off-Court........ ................112.8..............97.4...............................109.3...............114.9............
I actually agreed with your point. Just wanted to clarify that those two stats weren't the same. I'd suggest using the actual stats from NBA.com over the estimates on BBall-reference. The actuals are obviously the most accurate and the estimated numbers are often way off.
I think we can all agree the on court product is awful. Question is - is it fixable? These are canny vets. Or is this like 15-16 where people stoped giving ****s?
Y’all making it too complicated, teams had a whole year to prepare for Rockets switching defense after seeing it last year, that and the fact that starting and backup PFs are killing us ...is why we are losing games.
What they need to do they WON'T Do, they literally need to cut Melo - just let him loose he is not going to ever fit, his fat cat attitude is cancerous to this team. We need to surround CP3 and Harden with players who PLAY HARD all game, we can't have gold brick one side of the ball players if that one side is offense only..... I am honestly surprised, Morey is usually smarter, this has all the elements of STAR ****ING and not good team building - we should have stayed away. Now, we are stuck with a guy that was so bad that he was LITERALLY BOUGHT OUT TO NOT PLAY for a team - so yes, we won't do what we should do.....so what can we do? De-emphasize Melo, get Jimmy Butler, throw in Gordon, he is redundant with Butler here anyway......Butler is the kind of energy player we need. We have low energy players in Harden, Melo and sometimes CP3, need to compliment them with people who play hard like PJ Tucker. So, right now our chemistry is screwed up big time, it will only take a small adjustment to turn it around...but will Minny bite? DD
Here is when Melo came into the game with 9:26 left in the second quarter. The Clippers went at him almost every time down. He entered the game with the Rockets leading by 3 points, 44 to 41. With a little over a minute left in the second quarter, the Clippers lead 70-56... a 17 point swing with Carmelo on the floor. And they were able to consistently score because they went at Carmelo almost every time down the floor. Notice the time and the score: *******Continued in the next post*******
Our defense wasn't top 10 when we started the season last year. PJ was barely playing until a quarter of the way through. It took some time for the team to gel and come together. We 5 games in and missing our defensive coach this season. I'm giving things a lil more time to correct before I pass judgement. MCW needs to be playing spot minutes and not trying to score from outside the paint. I hope Knight can get healthy and give us something at backup PG. We need some other bigs to get healthy and help on the boards.
How can a back up player have this much effect on the whole team? IF it was as easy as cutting a minimum one year contract for a substitute player he would be gone, IMO. Surely the root of the problem has to be bigger than just Melo. The wheels have just fallen off the team and Melo is the sole reason? I could not mortgage the future on Butler. Tomball Jimmy is the ideal fit but 4 picks? That has potential to turn us into the Nets. The last pick happens in 2025. That’s seven years from now => Harden, Butler, & Paul won’t even be in the league any more by then. It’s like maxxing out all one’s credit cards at the roulette wheel. Even if one was to hit; they still are not going to pay the credit cards back. Just crazy, IMO.
I agree with you 100% This bid for Jimmy Butler has all the makings of desperation. Though I agree with DD at face value that getting Butler (Gordon be damned) is net net beneficial for the team. It’s worth examining whether this initial bid which mortgages our future AND has no guarantees on Jimmy resigning (one and done risk) is worth even doing at all. Mortgaging the future is the quickest way to long term futility. Just ask the Knicks, the Nets, and the Hawks. The better question, and the one no one seems to be asking is, sadly, are we even a true contender anymore and truly one player away? My gut tells me (and I know many will roast me for this) that we aren’t even a first tier contender anymore. If so, why stake so much for Butler? The savior-complex doesn’t work well in pro sports imho. TheSage
I know and enjoy reading their takes and respect them both. I just can’t see this trade as smart. I want to understand it but just gives to much for unsure short term solution, IMO. One wouldn’t run a business like this.
