Kyle Tucker - What's that new contract going to look like?

Image here of an overflowing truck full of cash flying out of it and everywhere. I’ll believe it when it happens but it SHOULD happen. Maybe they compromise and do a 6,7 or even 8. At what I’m not going to guess

 

8/296

but it won’t be us

 

He's not going anywhere for 2 more years, not sure why everyone is so worried about it now.

 

Tucker has been on a tear the last couple of weeks, so natch fans are talking about locking him up for the next 100+ years, in a buy high scenario with OPM.

 

Gonna need a brinks truck, Jimmy

 

10% chance Tucker signs a relatively team friendly extension this offseason, something like $180M/7years.

10% chance Tucker signs a pretty fair extension, something like $180M/6yrs or $220M/8yrs

80% chance he leaves in free agency.

 

Cost to go to an MLB game, Astros are 3rd highest in baseball

Crane bought the Astros for 680 million and they are currently valued at over 2.2 Billion

He has made over 1.5 Billion just in team valuation, and he certainly hasn't taken any losses in revenue

Crane has been the best owner overall of any Houston professional sports organization ever

But there is ZERO reason for him to not keep Kyle ****in Tucker an Astro for life

 

I think 0% he signs a team friendly deal even if it's a 1% discount. He would already be signed if that's the case.

The sticking point must be the years. No MLB player wants to be a FA in their mid 30s. Fewer teams tend to want you and the offers are much lesser.

That means that 10% chance he agrees to a short extension that buys out only 2 FA years at an extremely high AAV (4 Yrs / $110M*) so he can he a FA at 31. This is really only an option prior to the 2024 season, if it hasn't already passed. *keep in mind that includes 2 arb years.

Or 90%, a 9-12 year deal (depending on when it starts this offseason or at FA) that gets him through his mid 30s. The shorter the deal, the more AAV he will need to agree. 9yrs / $270M or 10yrs/$285M.

If he gets to FA of course the Dodgers, Giants, or Mets will offer him 12 yrs / $360M and he knows it.

I'm sure his people are targeting 10yrs and $30M per.

 

Of course the Astros have banked more than enough money to afford him.

The "philosophy" of long-term payroll flexibility is the issue.

Crane would rather pay a player 3 yrs / $100M than 10 yrs / $250M eventhough its $8.3M more per year

 

It's about him not wanting to guarantee that amount of money

The "philosophy" of long-term payroll flexibility is another way of saying "i'm not guaranteeing anyone 300 million dollars

Of the players we have let go so far the only one I was really upset about was Cole. Springer was never going to sign long term here after the service time stuff which is what it is. I never thought there was a chance so never got my hopes up. Correa, with the injury history, WAY too risky to sign long term.

Tucker doesn't have that injury history, he isn't a pitcher with all the extra risk that brings.....if Crane refuses to offer Tucker a market level deal because of his "no 7 year contracts or longer" crap, it simply means i'm not guaranteeing that much of MY money to ANYONE

 

You laid out what I was going to type with the four year deal, but I think it would need to be more than that. Tucker stands to get about $35-40 million in arbitration the next two years, so $110m is only two years at $35m each. I think it would need to be closer to $150m which I also would do.

 

You may be right.

I was figuring $30M in arbitration then $40M per for 2 seasons.

It's rare that a player gets double plus his prior salary in arb years 2 and/or 3 but this year could make Tucker one of them.

2023: $5M
2024: $10M
2025: $20M

Even if he might get more than double, Crane and Brown can use this as a most likely.

 

8 years beyond his arbitration years. Will be over 30 million a year, especially if he contributes like this for 2 more years. Consistency make owners feel better about big contracts. He's also pretty young.

If he switches to Boras between now and then, it will be more.

 

6 for 1/80 is really 4/155 or so covering what are his FA years. That seems higher than the club would like for his AAV and lower than what Tucker would like for total dollars which means it’s probably fair? fan graphs said 9/247 which struck me as logical and reasonable. I keep saying I think he would sign 10/300 and I think the Astros ought to do that.
I expect your 80% prediction is correct.

 

% chance he is traded at the 2025 deadline?

 

Jeff Lunhow's goat move may have been holding on to King Tuck when the fanbase was ready to ship him for a scrub. Lunhow best GM in Houston history. Arguably baseball......

 

Lets stay with the same category, "what is a definition of an ASTRO-nomical contract for a player who everyone knows will command it but the FO has never been willing to lock it down even though we sign players to mid-tier level-years for $1000 Jim"

 

There will be no discount. He remembers the Astros haggling him in arbitration over $2 million.

 

Taking a quick look at the big contracts that happened this past offseason:

• Aaron Judge (9 yr $360MM) - dealt with injuries this year but seems like his deal will end up being worth it, still produces when playing
• Manny Machado (11 yr $350MM) - OPS of .757 so far this year and he's already 31. Probably gonna be a bad deal.
• Rafael Devers (11 yr $331MM) - .OPS of .844, not terrible and he's only 26. Too early to tell on this one.
• Trea Turner (11 yr, $300MM) - OPS of .696, not looking good for the long term on this one, he's 30yrs old today
• Xander Bogaerts (11 yr, $280MM) - OPS of .742, 30 years old, not looking great on this one either
• Carlos Correa (6 yr, $200MM) - OPS of .717, only 28 but there were the injury concerns in FA, could turn out okay but not starting well
• Jacob DeGrom (5 yr, $185MM) - Lo and behold, injured, at least this one was only 5 years
• Dansby Swanson (7 yr, $177MM) - OPS of .772 from a SS, not bad, this one probably won't be negative
• Brandon Nimmo (8 yr, $162MM) - OPS of .808, pretty good for a CF, other than the fire sale they had they probably don't regret this one

There were other long ones but they were totalling out around $100MM each so not as much of a commitment, either for dollars or years or both.

So off what we have learned in one year, it feels like about a 50/50 on these deals being worth it. So if Crane was of the opinion that super long deals (like 8+ years) are not worth it/too risky prior to this season, I doubt the results we've seen from this past offseason's big spending will have changed his mind.

It'll be nice to be pleasantly surprised, but I'm fully preparing myself for Kyle to leave the team when he hits free agency.