I think the Knicks pick is better suited for us as a deadline trade chip than something to hold on to. Morey IIRC said the draft will be 3 deep in terms of star power. I'm not sure two picks in the 10-15 range, which is reasonably our best case scenario, can get us that high. But if the Knicks continue to suck we might be able to package the pick with someone for an upgrade. No kidding. I do think DWill is the better player right now. But take into account age difference(25 vs 27), salary difference($5.75 mil vs $17? mil), and injury concerns(Lowry +15 games played over past 2 seasons), and no question Lowry's better going forward.
It sure appears to me that New York is going to be battling with Milwaukee, Philly, and Toronto for the 7-8 seeds in the East. If all the trade talks for Dwight, Pau, Deron fall through, and we are still playing at borderline playoff/lottery level at the trade deadline, it sure appears to me that we could help one of these other teams over the top by moving Martin and Scola to them. Milwaukee is below the cap. I would think they would take Scola off our hands for some minor expirings and their 2012 first rounder. Scola would look good next to Bogut and would make them a viable playoff team. Toronto could swallow Scola up too, being under the cap. Would they give up a first rounder for him? Would Philly take Martin and Dally for Brand and a first rounder or for Brand and Turner? A deal like that combined with moving Scola to Toronto or Milwaukee for cap space and a pick would actually increase our cap space in 2012 while at the same time strengthening two teams in the East to punch NY out of the playoffs. 2012 Cap space galore young players galore 2-4 first round draft picks including possibly 2 lottery picks. Lowry Motiejunas Brand's $18 million expiring contract
June 30. Yeah, I actually kind of wish the Rockets faced the EASIEST part of their schedule on the front end of the season. If the Rockets could have gotten out of the gate with a terrific early W-L record, that would have greatly facilitated Lowry (and maybe also Scola or Martin) getting an All-Star nod. As silly as it sounds, for a player to "make the All-Star Team" (even if he is the same caliber player as someone equally talented but who is snubbed) would give the Rockets an extra leg up in attracting free agents. If Kyle Lowry was literally a Western Conference All-Star this season, that could influence a guy like Dwight Howard to pick Houston, where he could play on a team with an All-Star PG (Lowry), a near All-Star SG (Martin), a very good PF (Scola) and the cap room to sign him. That's a combination that not many teams can offer. (New Jersey would offer D-Will and not much else. Dallas, who is clearing the deck for 2012 free agency, can offer an aging Dirk and not much else.) The current Rockets team could fit a max salary free agent under the cap and could even (with only a little bit of maneuvering) add a "super-max" guy like Howard, who will command a starting salary of about $19M. Since there is little chance to add TWO max players in free agency (as opposed to trade), regardless of who the Rockets trade away, I think it would help the Rockets more in free agency to KEEP Martin and Scola, since (a) top free agents will be more likely to want to play with other good players and (b) aside from the very top free agents, there really isn't anyone out there as good as those two guys and would probably cost the Rockets more in salary. Also, the concept of trading Martin or Scola for first round picks is a flawed concept. First of all, aside from a guy like Dwight Howard or Deron Williams or Chris Paul, no team is going to offer up an UNPROTECTED pick in trades. The Rockets were very fortunate to have New York over a barrell in 2010--desperate to dump Jared Jeffries's contract to open up "double max cap room" to go after Lebron et al--and got only top-1 protection on the 2011 pick swap and top-5 protection on the 2012 pick. Limited protections like that are very, very rare. Even for high quality players like Scola or Martin, the Rockets wouldn't do better than, say, top-10 protection. Maybe top-8, if Morey can push the other team far enough in trade talks. Second, if a trade involves the Rockets giving the other team a player the caliber of Martin or Scola, while only taking back a pick and salary filler (i.e., not a good player in return), then it stands to reason that the acquiring team will subsequently be much improved and will not likely end up with a very high lottery pick, anyway. Frankly, I wouldn't want to trade Martin or Scola for a pick that ends up being in the 12-18 range. There are far easier (and less costly) ways to get a pick like that. Bottom line: The whole "Scola/Martin for picks" idea needs to be shelved. Unless the Rockets are getting young players with high ceilings in return as well, there is little upside to any such trade and will most likely result in a very, very poor return on investment.
Umm, I don't think I agree with that. But I do value your thoughts on this. Remember, the preface to the trades I suggested is not being able to acquire Dwight and/or Deron by the trade deadline. That means Dwight and Deron have already been traded away and signed their extensions or committed to signing their extension in NJ, Dallas, or Lakerland, or if they haven't, then the drama regarding their future is going to unfold in the two weeks after the Finals. We were going to have to give up Martin and Scola to have a shot at Pau. Personally, if Orlando decides to trade Dwight after the season, I would think mega cap space and young talent/picks would mean more to them than Martin and Scola. Also, if they do want talent, I think they will be able to get it from the Lakers with (Bynum/Pau) and blow away our offer of Martin/Scola and whatever else. Sure, they've said they want to compete, but after the season is over, it's a different story. If you were rebuilding, would you rather have Martin and Scola plus picks and players or Brand's expiring and some picks and players or possibly just straight cap space and picks and players and a huge trade exception for Dwight's contract, Hedo's contract and whatever other contracts you could trade away with Dwight? Next, I wasn't counting on those first rounders we get in trade being lottery picks if we traded Scola and Martin. They obviously wouldn't be lottery picks if we are helping push those teams into the playoffs. They would most likely be in the 15-20 range in 2012. The lottery picks come from our own pick and forcing NY out of the playoffs by strengthening their Eastern Conference foes. I would not expect any team to trade a lottery pick for either Scola or Martin. I'm just saying in a deep draft like 2012, we could conceivably get a top 3 pick (our own), possibly force NY down to an 8-12 pick (with a little luck) and then have two other first round picks in the late teens, early twenties. That could get us one of the big 5 plus a couple other guys like Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers. However, a more likely scenario is we trade those later first round draft picks for future draft picks if what we want isn't there. First rounders give you a lot of trade flexibility. What better choices do we have if Dwight and Deron are sewed up by the trade deadline? In other words, they have either been traded elsewhere and agreed to their extensions or they have committed to their current teams and agreed to extensions. If that happens, we are staring at an abyss of 2012 when it comes to free agency. There's nothing there that's going to make a difference for us. At least, I don't see it. Now, if we acquire Pau, or Dwight or Deron or any combination of those players by the trade deadline, then it's a different story, different ballgame. But if we don't acquire any of those players, I think we are better off moving Martin and Scola at the deadline, both in terms of cap space, talent, and possibly attracting Dwight and Deron here. Dwight and Deron want to play together. Haven't we already seen this movie before? That's just being realistic. They're going to make that happen one way or another. They will walk away from money to make that happen ala Lebron/DWade/Bosh. The second thing they want is max money if possible. The next thing they want is to make it happen as soon as possible. Those things are all givens. I really think this is all going to unfold at the trade deadline. But if it doesn't, then if we are still sucking wind at the deadline (likely), we should move Martin and Scola for expirings and picks.
I agree but I find it hard to believe that a FA in today's CBA would walk away from that much money (can't even use the state income tax as a draw) so I think you have to S-n-T and I don't see Orlando doing him any favors for a Bud, a pick and batch of expiring 09ers. So I think that we'd lose at least 1 or possibly both of them (most likely a 3rd team involved). Now since Howard is a young stud, I'd give both of them up for him but we'd no longer have that "card" if that is what he was looking for. I agree that unprotected 2012 draft picks would be hard to get from any team including Miami. However, I still believe (hopeful) that we could get some young untapped talent like Scola and parts for Cousins (that is a unwatched simmering pot waiting to boil over again) followed by Kevin for some young TPups not named Love or Rubio. They may be total strike outs or not turn out to be as good offensively but I'm still swinging for the fences.
I think the fundamental difference between your strategy and where I stand on our current roster is that I think you are putting the cart ahead of the horse. To trade players the caliber of Martin and Scola for nickels on the dollar, just for (a) the very, very, very small chance that the Rockets' #11 or #12 draft position wins the lottery to get a top-3 pick, (b) the off-chance that the Eastern Conference team to which we trade Martin or Scola pushes New York out of the playoffs (a far too unpredictable notion to merit this type of trade), and (c) a chance to have cap room for an offseason move . . . well, it's just not very prudent. The Rockets can make those types of moves AFTER the season . . . IF they can line up the type of mega-trade you are envisioning. Just look at the maneuvering that the Miami Heat did between the time they learned they'd be getting all three big free agents to the time those guys actually signed their deals. They made a TON of moves over a two week stretch. The Rockets could do the same thing here. While they would potentially lose out on opportunities to trade for "expiring contracts" in a postseason trade, they could easily find trade partners with tons of cap room after July 1, when Howard and others would first become free agents. They could definitely find takers for Martin or Scola (much more easily than Miami found a taker for Michael Beasley, a very talented player but one with personal off-the-court issues). You could even get a protected 2013 first rounder for either of them, IMO. Bottom line: While I don't necessarily disagree with your overall strategy in its "end game", I think you risk far, far too much trying to pull those moves months in advance and with only the slimmest of hopes that any of your assumptions/anticipated consequences will play out as you envisioned. You maybe do that for a middling talent, but not for your top players who are near All-Star caliber. But, as I always tell guys like DD and leebigez, we can always agree to disagree.
Under the new CBA, a sign-and-trade does NOT help Howard get paid even one cent more than had he signed outright with another team. The only benefit of a sign-and-trade now is that Howard can be traded to a team that otherwise wouldn't have the cap room to sign him outright (like the Lakers). If anything, in an age where S&T deals won't net a bigger payday, I would think the "no state income tax" angle would be MORE beneficial in attracting free agent. I'm not saying that it will be effective in practice, necessarily. Just that it will have a more substantive impact vs. other teams (besides the player's own former team). As I mentioned in my earlier post, I was not referring to not trading Scola or Martin for talented young players. My point was merely about PICKS. I agree that Morey could definitely try to trade Scola or Martin (probably not Martin, though) to Sacramento for Cousins. He's a bona fide top 5 pick. There's no way the Rockets could get a player of that caliber talent with any pick they could realistically obtain in trades involving Scola or Martin.
I thought the raises couldn't be as much or the contract couldn't be as long if a FA changed teams hence you were leaving money on the table if you just walked? Good to know. On the state income tax - I was only stating that because his current team's state (FL) doesn't have a state income tax either. But yes it would be a plus in picking us over a NY or CA team.
I understand where you are coming from somewhat. However, what I feel is that ultimately if Dallas has the cap space to sign both Deron and Dwight outright after the season, then that is where they are likely to wind up. It's Deron's hometown, and as you mentioned it is in Texas (no state income tax) and they've got Dirk plus Cuban. That's a good setup. IOW, what I'm saying is if we are not able to get Dwight and Deron by the trade deadline through trade, then I don't think we are going to be a player for getting them after the season. Dwight is either going to walk to NJ or they both are going to walk to Dallas. If they have a choice between signing outright here or in Dallas, we lose to Dallas. If Dwight has choice between signing outright in Dallas to play with Dirk or signing here to play with Lowry or signing in NJ to play with Deron, he is going to choose NJ. So, my point is that under those conditions, if we cannot get Orlando to move Dwight here at the trade deadline, then I think it is time to clear out shop, go to the lottery, see if we can help push NY to the lottery to pick up a better asset and play around with Lowry, lottery picks, young talent, cap space, a large expiring contract, and trade exceptions in 2012. These assets could possibly land us Deron and Dwight in trade for the 2012 season with them picking up their 2012 options, similar to what Chris Paul agreed to do to move to the Clippers. They get to play together for a year here and see what happens then they still have all their options open for 2013 and beyond or possibly just extend here......which I am banking on they would do. Also, I don't think Morey trades Martin/Scola for Pau. The Martin/Scola trade for Pau was actually Martin/Scola for Pau/Nene. They had Nene committed to playing here alongside Pau. That deal is no longer available. I don't think Morey has any incentive to trade Martin/Scola for just Pau. On another note, if we did trade Martin/Scola away for expirings and picks, I believe we could add 2 supermax free agents......if we wanted to. We could still use amnesty on Kyle to create the space. It wouldn't be any different than including him in a trade for Deron. And that is leverage.....in getting NJ to come to the table and trade Deron here. By the way, if we trade away Scola and Martin at the trade deadline for expirings and go into tank mode, we would have to be extremely unlucky to wind up at 10-12. We would most likely be at 4-9 based on record alone.
Fair enough. I still think you are not maximizing the value--or even the chance of accomplishing your desired end game--by taking the specific approach you suggest. But I do see some merit in what you say. As far as maximizing the sort of draft picks you can get for Martin or Scola, I think you actually have a better chance to get a better pick with a pre-draft trade than a March 2012 deadline deal. Just look at what the Charlotte Bobcats did before the 2011 draft. They traded Stephen Jackson, Shaun Livingston and the #19 pick in a three-team deal that netted them Corey Maggette and the #7 pick. Now, do you think there was any chance in hell that Charlotte could get a "top-6 protected 2011 first round pick" in that sort of trade at the February 2011 trade deadline? I sure as heck don't. Instead, they waited until the draft lottery played out, the picks were all set, players' draft positioning solidified and teams no longer had delusions of grandeur about their pick potentially netting a future superstar. THIS is what the Rockets should do . . . if the goal is to open cap room while still getting the best draft picks possible. Especially since the Rockets' own draft position would not have gotten significantly better had they sucked after trading Martin or Scola in-season. I could see a draft position improvement of, say, from #14 to #10; and that's a best (or worst?) case scenario. Even then, you're looking at no better than a 4% chance at a top-3 pick as opposed to an almost 2% chance at the #14 position. And you officially lost me with your "We could still use amnesty on Kyle" comment. Not cool, dude.
jopatmc vs. BimaThug - great line of conversation going, very informative. i happen to side a little more with jopatmc. BimaThug, I understand what you're saying, and how trading away KMart/Scola for mid teens picks with a hope and a prayer doesn't seem prudent, but the alternative analysis seems to be that, even if that is the worst case scenario, that's at least something different than the path they are currently taking. It was nice and all to envision a Gasol/Nene front court, with Lowry and filler, but first though a complete guess, it doesn't seem like that yields a significantly better squad than what you already have, and second, that's not a possibility going forward. Are there any/many superstar or all-star players out there anymore that are either FA's next offseason or the following that the Rockets could obtain through trade or acting as a third party broker? Possible... but seems highly unlikely, even considering they almost did just that. The chances of landing Dwight or Deron, much less both, seem less than the chances of winning the lotto, to me. And the new CBA does seem structured to help teams keep their all-star players. You know Dwight really really doesn't want to be forced to choose between staying with Orlando and losing a bunch of money. I'm not saying he won't walk anyway if he isn't traded... he may value location and winning more than that huge difference in money, but he'll be one of the only athletes ever to leave that amount of money on the table. So 2-4 lotto picks, Kyle Lowry and cap space certainly doesn't make a great team. But jopa is correct, the Rockets pick at that point should at least be a pretty decent lotto pick. And lower/mid teens picks in a deep draft aren't established, offensively capable NBA ballers, but are at least a decently valuable asset. Suck again another year and get another great lotto pick, add some free agents, and cross your fingers. On a wing and a prayer... but not much more than the wing and a prayer of improving any other way, no? Bima, for example's sake, throw out a realistic scenario that you could see happen that would meaningfully improve the team? you don't think there's a meaningful difference, potentially, between a 10 pick and a 14 pick... especially when factoring in the doubled chance of getting a top pick.
That's a legitimate point. If there is that kind of deal out there. Keep in mind, 2011 was a weak draft. But #7 still makes your case. On the flip side, yes, I do believe that if you moved Scola to a team like Boston, for instance, say for Jermaine's expiring, you could possibly get a top 5 protected pick back in 2013. Another possibility would be to set up a future pick swap with top 5 protection with a team like Philly, Toronto, Cleveland, etc. similar to what Morey did with the Knicks picks. Ainge is starving for another chance at the Finals. A player like Scola may put them back into contention with Miami and Chicago to come out of the East. He may go for something like that. Not to mention the other teams, Philly, Toronto, Milwaukee, etc. Oh, the threat of amnesty is just that. You have the ability to amnesty Lowry to create cap space to bring in your two super max contracts. You mean if you had to amnesty Lowry to complete two free agent deals for Dwight and Deron, that you wouldn't do that? The truth is you wouldn't have to. Any team with a trade exception would take Lowry off our hands for a future pick.....or two. But the point is it is a threat. NJ can either trade Deron to us for Lowry or they can let him walk for nothing. If we have to amnesty Lowry (worst case scenario) to have the cap space to get Deron signed, we can do it. The point is if we move Scola/Martin for expirings, we have the cap space and flexibility to add 2 super max free agents, most likely through trade because of our ability to create extra space, not pick up rookie options, etc. The other downside to your approach is if we are in a position to help push NY out of the playoffs by helping one or two of their Eastern Conference foes get significantly better, then that draft pick loses significant value. And if the season is over and there is going to be a trade with Orlando, I think salary cap savings takes on a whole new meaning to them at that time.
Well its the Knick's dumbass fault for getting rid of Billups. So what if he's old, he was still their best point guard. Shumpert's injury makes it even worse.
I think this is where people get confused about the direction of the team, believing we are going nowhere. Technically, they are correct, we are not winning a championship with this core. However, there is an endgame. You win. You win as much as possible. You go as far as possible in the playoffs. The result will be a complete shift in the perception of our players and our team by the rest of the league. By winning, Lowry will be viewed as an up and coming All star PG. By winning, Martin and Scola will be viewed as valuable veterans capable of solidifying a young team looking to improve. By winning, our youth will be viewed as blue chip prospects. Patterson, Dragic, Morris, Parsons, Twill, even Jordan Hill will actually be in demand. By winning, free agents will actually give us a second look because they are looking to go somewhere where they can win. THEN, you can package Martin/Scola for full value ie. top 5 pick like OKC did with Ray Allen. THEN you can try to convince free agents to come join our collection of young talents and more importantly winners. Perception is everything in this league. Tyson Chandler was viewed as the key cog that changed the entire identity of the Mavericks. Why? Well there was some truth to it, but mostly because they WON. Now that Chandler has his max contract due to his winning, guess what his new perception will be losing on the Knicks? One of the worst contracts in the league. Courtney Lee was the centerpiece that brought the Magic a prime Vince Carter, because he was a rookie who started on a finals team. By the time he was done losing on that epicly bad Nets team, I'm not sure what the hell they even got for him when we traded Ariza. Zach Randolph was passed around the league for years for nickels and dimes when he was losing on the Knicks and Blazers. He experiences winning for ONE year, and now the perception is he is a franchise freakin' player. The entire Grizzlies team, barely squeaking into the playoffs last year, are now viewed as a dark horse to come out of the west by some pundits! To me that is ludicrous, but totally understandable, because they WON. If they won just 3 games less a year ago, they would be the ones seen as the middling franchise, going nowhere, better off tanking and starting over. That is the type of paradigm shift you will see with guys like Dalembert and Martin and Scola and all our other players once they experience winning. No one wants losers. Every team wants winners. Any dealings by Morey going forward would be from a position of strength. On the other hand, if you sell our veterans now 15 cents on the dollar and try to bottom out, there is no endgame. Because as long as productive young players like Lowry and Patterson and Lee are still on the team, they will never reach a top 5 pick. Guys on this board truly underestimate how bad some of these other teams are. So getting the 8th pick or 10th pick does nothing, besides giving us the chance of getting back to where we are at now, truly going nowhere.
