If we help Milwaukee by taking bogut and sjax I wonder if we could take their first rounder. Then I'd go to n.o. And take Okafor for another 1st. If we don't make the playoffs we could potentially have 4 first rounders and I'm sure we could use a few to get a really high pick. We aren't getting stars anytime soon. It's time to draft suit up
Than ask yourself this Jayz in your opinion which is more valuable a 2012 guaranteed lottery pick or a 2013 future draft pick. Forget all the other scenarios like you'd rather make the playoffs or tanking sucks. Strictly which is more valuable today. The flexibility minimized once the season ends. There is a time constraint you have to make draft day trade to make use it. But that's done all the time. Do you really think Morey or any GM for that mater would dump a 2012 guaranteed lottery pick for a 2013 future draft pick and a little more flexibility? It's like receiving a savings bond that you can't cash for a couple of years and might not even be worth 50 bucks when you cash it or getting 50 bucks cash right now. I can't see how that is a weak argument. Now if you don't like me and respect Bima then just call me an Old Fool but the argument stands on it's on. No GM would swap those picks for flexibility.
I personally think that you and Bima are arguing 2 completely different analysis perspectives. You are probably both right given your perspectives. The final analysis of who is right will depend on factors like ping pong balls and player potential development. Can we call it a draw with no losers and move on?
Am I replying to trollbait? The answer is simple: it's Les Alexander's mandate to rebuild on the fly without tanking. Everyone wants to tank -- it's the easiest way to add great impact players to your team -- but when your boss, the owner, does not want to do that, but wants to rebuild while making the playoffs, then your job is to do exactly that -- that's what Morey's been doing. That means this is Les's problem more than anyone else's, because he's the one creating the constraints under which the front office has to work. Keep talking about tanking, but it's not going to happen until Les changes his mind. Or you can talk about what we are actually doing, and be a realist. I don't understand all of the complaints toward Morey's stewardship when the front office makes prudent and creative decisions. Have they made mistakes? Absolutely, with Trevor Ariza and Terrence Williams, most recently. We moved Ariza for Lee, to repair the mistake and improve the team. We scout and draft well, and manage the cap with finesse. Williams is an expiring contract, and even if he's not moved, he will at least come off the books in time for the 2012 FA pool. The new luxury tax is forcing teams to be more active in controlling payroll, but that also means that opportunities will become available in the next two seasons as enforcement begins on the new tax rates. There are only a handful of great front offices in this league. We have one of them. I would say that OKC and SAS do too. Pritchard's run with POR was good, but he's gone now. It's a rare, rare luxury. What did Chris Grant and Otis Smith do with their stars? Consider the kind of role players we were finally able to assemble around Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady just as they started to break down. Bad teams can get good, but how many lottery picks has LAC burned before getting to where they are now? And what about CHA or WAS? They still have no future.
Pardon me if I jump in the discussion between you and Bima, however flexibility is THE most important aspect of building a championship contender, at least when it comes to trading for a superstar piece. When the Lakers raped Memphis for Gasol, they did it via expirings and assets. Same thing when Boston traded for KG and Allen, and Miami cleared enough cap room to sign Bosh and Wade. These teams were more or less "mediocre" but because they had a nice mix of superstar and asset then they could have chosen to either rebuild or trade pieces for a contender, and this allowed them to be opportunistic and take advantage of certain events which happened at the time. Gutting the team just for the sake of gutting the team leaves a lot to be desired, I'd like to be contenders within the next 3 years rather than waiting for 5 and eventually be the same team now. All those teams could be considered "mediocre" before they got the blockbuster trade, Miami for example had Wade who was nearing 30 and had a bunch of crap on the team while Boston had a youth movement going on+Pierce, Lakers had an end of his prime Kobe and up-and-coming Shaq v2 (at the time). But because they didn't lock themselves into rebuilding and gut their team for pieces they were able to capitalize. Regarding Bima's point about flexibility, having NJ's pick obligation over your head the next 5 years really hampers your trade options, cuz you don't have a pick to spend on trades.
Uh let me correct you, EVERYBODY loves the idea of tanking and ping-pong balls, but no one likes losing. I mean, if you're thinking of brightest futures its probably the Cavs, they're still bad but Irving panned out and looks like a franchise pg. I don't see people cheering for them though, they suck. On the board here you see people like DD and OMR lose their **** over the losses, yet these are the guys who want to tank and rebuild everything. I don't want to wait 5-10 years for a sueprstar, IMHO the best option would be to do a mini tank and trade for Bogut, we cna get the 2nd best C in the league+DMO+2 lottery picks next year if we help Milwaukee out.
We can always make draft day trades, we pick the player for the other team and get out man and done deal. I think Morey is smart enough to work around this trap he set for the Nets when he did this deal.
I think this goes in line with what Roslolian was saying but already started writing it before I saw it and at this point I'm just posting it anyway I think the reason that flexibility is so important is that Morey's strategy (which I personally think is a great one) is very dependant on being ready to take advantage of any deal that comes along. I think that's what BimaThug is ultimately trying to get at here, if it's not then we differ on that point. OMR, why do you say that flexibility would end after we make the playoffs if we do make the playoffs? I would argue that that's when it really starts to become important. Now all next year you have the optionality of trading your first round pick if the right deal comes along or keeping it if you suck bad enough. The reason why Morey has not just given up and quit (I think) is because he believes that at some point a GM will be in a position to get rid of a star or potential star at a discounted rate (or a rate that to us feels discounted because we are able to give up players that for us don't hold the same value as the player we will acquire) because of specific circumstances. Look at his past trades and I think you will see that (only they were not for stars, but some did at least have the potential). I think a reason that a future pick would hold more value in this system is that it would represent more flexibility to the team that you are trading with than giving them the player that we would have picked in the 2012 draft that may or may not be a position of need for the team we are trading with and may or may not have even had a chance to show the value that we thought they would have. I think the problem people have with this plan is that it is not very sexy, it will invariably lead to many almost got it situations as we have experienced, but all we need is for one deal to go through to start turning this thing around. Basically Morey is cold calling 100 people knowing that statistically one of 100 calls turns into something, so far we have only seen the 99, heck the 100th call might not happen before he gets run out of town, but that's what he's doing, at least in simplified terms and in my opinion... So the value of the pick comes in having one more piece to his sales pitch. Even if we lose from here on out how high of a pick are we going to get, and what are the chances of that player being an allstar/superstar? I would think even lower than the chances of us getting a deal. Case in point, Morey already got one deal done for a superstar (vetoed or not, it was done) how many of his past draft selections are in the same category as Pau Gasol?
Dude, this has nothing to do with who I like better. I've had multi-page conversations with Bima, recently, where I espouse your position. I actually agree with your approach. But dismissing Bima's approach as outright weak... well, that's weak. Bima's analysis is rock solid, and quite valid. Specifically to your question... do I think DM would trade the guaranteed #14 pick this year for getting back next year's unprotected pick of their own, and added flexibility of being able to make trades with 2013 and 2014 draft picks in the future? Because that's the real comparison. Not a 2012 lottery pick for a 2013 pick. There's more to it than that, as Bima has pointed out repeatedly. I think DM might do that, indeed. IN FACT, as I previously pointed out, if you read through this thread: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=216406 Clutch and I asked that very question. Bima's approach to a complete rebuild is centered around doing it via trade. It has nothing to do with making decisions on or by draft day. It has much to do with potential trades this week, at draft day, next offseason before the season starts and next trade deadline. Trades where Morey would indeed offer up an unprotected future first (or 2) as a valuable asset as part of a trade package. Absent eliminating the NJ trade obligation OR trading for an unprotected first round pick in 2013 or 2014, that isn't possible. Say the Rockets wanted to move up to 4th in the draft in pursuit of frankly a complete gut and rebuild to get a player Morey really think has superstar potential - say Thomas Robinson - and they could potentially do so by offering Kevin Martin, the Knicks pick (say 9th), and their 2014 first round pick. Well they simply can't do that if they haven't satisfied their obligation to NY. It's just a fact. Again, I agree with you.. though JUST barely. I'd prefer to keep the Rockets pick, as having 2 decent picks in a deep draft can only help, and DM should be able to find ways to structure deals around his obligation. But consider what you're arguing is whether or not, if at the last week of the season, it's a race to the 8th seed, with the loser picking up the #14 draft pick. It's the #14 pick, not very likely to get a top ping pong ball, a crapshoot on being a meaningful player. The question then becomes, in that last week, if you had the opportunity to determine the outcomes, would you prefer the Rockets make the playoffs and give their pick to NJ, or miss the playoffs, keep the #14 pick and still owe NJ a pick in the future, limiting trade flexibility. Because if the Rockets actually do go on a downward spiral and have a 10th pick as an example, it's a non-starter anyway. Short of order from the top telling McHale to play the young guys, what will happen will happen anyway, regardless of what route you prefer. Yes, on draft day for that actual draft. They couldn't make such a trade agreement years in advance though, as it relates to say the 2014 first rounder (see example above). DM needs to either (1) satisfy the obligation by the Rockets making playoffs this year, (2) obtain a 2013 or 2014 unprotected first round pick (see comments earlier in this thread for potential likelihood of that), or (3)structure trades to exclude 2013/2014 first round picks. I think Bogut is overrated, given his injury history... but I must say I like this approach.
I don't disagree; but the people wanting to tank also tend to want Daryl Morey fired. That's what I was addressing by referencing Grant and Smith. Even if we were to fire Morey and get another GM that can lead us to several high lottery picks, AND we get lucky enough to get the next LeBron James or Dwight Howard, odds are incredibly good that we would just make knee-jerk moves and bad decisions. Our perennial "contender" would keep losing, and our superstar would leave. Great management is as hard to find as a true superstar franchise player.
I want to tank and keep DM around. I certainly won't give DM a forever pass, but I think he has a pass for a number of years more... he is only just recently coming out of the Yao/TMac era he was saddled with (yes, saddled, given their injuries). He's proven to be adept at drafting, making deals (despite them getting nixed at times!) and has singed a FA or two (and quickly admitted to himself when it was a mistake and fixed the problem - see Ariza). He has made some strange moves: TWill trade, taking on Thabeet (though got us DMo, I guess... grade tbd), but nobody is perfect. He's also indicated he'd be willing to do a complete rebuild, but ownership doesn't want to, so he's being as crafty as he can to rebuild on the fly. I can not fault him for not yet landing the big fish. He's certainly tried, and we have no idea what others were asking of him. And Stern happened. Faulting him for letting go of Lin is moronic.
The thing is les alexander is paying a lot of $$$ to keep DM and his staff on the payroll as well as the new fangled $$$ ball machinery. Why will you invest all that dough if you want your gm to build you a crappy team? Let me put it this way, the best team that I saw become contenders due to the tank plan are the OKC thunder, they started out with a ton of capspace and Kevin Durant on year one. That's the best case scenerio, and it still took them 5 years to get to contending status. Why will I get pay DM and $ball machinery for 5 years when I want the team to be bad? You won't leverage DM's ability to get undervalued players anyway, you want to suck and suck hard every year for the next 5 years as you collect lottery picks.
LOL. You are still singing this tune. Sure the schedule has something to do with it. But 7-game winning streak vs 6-game losing streak? They beat the Mavs before Melo came back. Then lost to the Nets after he came back. Schedule? Have you even watched the games? Everyone and his granny noticed the change of their game after Lin started and then the change back to their old way after Melo came back.
QFT. JayZ gets it. He doesn't necessarily agree with me, but he gets it. I couldn't ask for more. (I will clarify, however, that I am not opposed to trading away every veteran on this roster by Thursday if it will clearly help the Rockets over the long term. I just want whichever 15 players are on the roster by next week to play their asses off and compete for the playoffs. Like JayZ says, if the Rockets continue to suck and end up with the #10 pick, so be it. But I think it would be beneficial to at least TRY LIKE HELL to make the playoffs this year and uncuff Morey to do his thing to rebuild this team.) OMR, I sincerely hope you can appreciate my point of view more fully. Again, I appreciate yours. But neither point of view is "weak" by any means.
Completely wrong mindset. A great GM is as important, if not moreso, during a tank and rebuild job as it is during perennial championship runs. You need a great CEO to lead a company out of distress - or into distress to ultimately get out of it - just as you need a great CEO to lead a multi-billion dollar high growth conglomerate. The more appropriate question would be is DM the right guy for both of those tasks? I vote yes for now.
Wow you guys really think Morey values flexibility more than a lottery pick this year. There's no arguing that. I know Bima has a lot of fans here but this is really silly. Let me be clear I have never said flexibility has no value. 10 dollars has value but I'd rather have 20 bucks. The question is simple 2012 lottery with some flexibility or 2013 pick with more flexibility. If Morey agrees with you all he has to do is give the 2012 pick to the Nets this year. Case closed. He will never do that because as much as he loves flexibility he knows the pick is more valuable. That's Bima's position. He prefers we make the playoffs (not out of us making the playoffs for winnings sake. he may want it for that reason too. But that's not our argument) so we fulfill our obligation to the Nets and have more flexibility. I get that! I want that flexibility too. I would be willing to give up Martin or maybe even Dragic to get that flexibility back. But what I am not willing to do is give up a 2012 lottery pick for a 2013 unknown pick just to gain more flexibility. The question is simple, do any of you really believe Morey is going to give our lottery pick this draft year back to the Nets to conclude our deal with the Nets? Because that is what it would take to regain the flexibility. Bima know's Morey would never do that. I think he just dug himself in this flexibility argument and he can't dig himself out. I agree with him flexibility is valuable. Where we differ is I prefer a lottery pick this summer and I would never give it up for a little more flexibility.
if Morey had pulled off the Nene/Gasol deal, people would be singing a different tune. Of course it was totally his fault that Stern blew that up.
This makes no sense. If you want the company to be bankrupt you don't get Steve Jobs to run your company. Steve Jobs will invents things like Iphones and Ipads and Imacs to make your company profitable, will you mandate that Steve Jobs should scrap all his i-ideas and work on the Xperia phones instead? No, you get Joe the plumber to be your CEO, then when the company files for bankruptcy that's when you kick his ass out and then hire Steve Jobs. Except Jobs would have been pirated by Microsoft so you need to settle for Bill Gates instead. Saying you want to tank with DM still in place would like having MJ on your roster and trying to become the worst team in the L. It won't happen, because they'll do all these things which will make your team win games. Now if you're saying DM should still be on the team but he can't make trades for undervalued players because it might make the team better...what's the point of keeping him then?
This is my point of view as well. I have never been for players dogging out. I have been in certain end of the season situations that could have got us Brandon Roy for coaches to put in the worst possible combination to insure us a loss at the end of the season. But that has nothing to do with our argument. You said you prefer to resolve our obligation with the Nets now in order to allow more flexibility going forward. I said I want the lottery pick. If that is not your argument than tell me otherwise. Do you want the flexibility or the lottery pick. You can't have both. If you want the flexibility than I think Morey and any GM in the NBA would disagree with you. That is why I think it is weak.
OMR, you are oversimplifying the argument. Ask yourself this: If the rebuilding Houston Rockets offered a future unprotected first round pick to every NBA team, would even one team offer the Rockets something more valuable than "the #14 pick in the 2012 NBA Draft"? If your answer is "no", then we have nothing further to discuss. We'll just agree to disagree on how weak my position is. If your answer is "yes", then my position is NOT weak. I think the answer is a resounding YES. Also, don't forget that the Rockets would STILL owe a future first round pick to New Jersey. You're not getting that #14 pick free and clear. Just looking at it as the #14 pick is short-sighted. Either way, I suppose we'll just agree to disagree. Personally, I think we both have valid viewpoints. You don't. Shame.
