If I had to guess, both PGs will get between 28-32 minutes to start the season (like, first 3 weeks). That may change and positions may even switch after McHale get a chance to reassess how things are working in the regular season.
Excellent points my dude. This is the most reasonable post about Lin's minutes that I've seen. Lin will also be used if our starters can't seem to get it going. If anything he'll have a bigger role this year than last year as a starter.
CX great post as usual. I would like to point a couple of things out: Typically as USG goes up RAPM goes down. There are many reasons for this. See Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper. With Lin we see the opposite. Lin's usage decreased as did his RAPM last season. As with everything there are confounding factors such as injury recovery. But I would speculate that the largest reason for Lin's decline in RAPM was that Harden is the much better guard. Harden takes away many of the dribble penetration and P&R opportunities which Lin would normally get. Maybe there is something to the notion of playing Bev more with Harden and always having either Lin or Harden on the floor to create shots by penetrating?
u think the kind of defense and the "all-effort" Bev bring to the team can be easily sustain? If he can then that mean he is really good. But players do get tire and when they are tire, their performance will drop.
It has always made sense to stagger Lin and Harden minutes; a vast contingent on Clutchfans was confused as to why that was not taking place... and in fact took place less and less as the season wore on. My impression was that McHale was trying very hard to get those two to mesh together somehow. That he is considering staggering their minutes this year tells a very interesting story.
Kinda hard to pinpoint it - could be McHale not being adaptable, or his assistants not spotting trends, or in game scouting failing. or just plain preference / bias.
I don't recall Oliver commenting on USG versus RAPM in Basketball on Paper (APM is only very briefly mentioned with regard to Winston and Sagarin's method, which Oliver did not think much of). You may be mistaking this for Usg vs Offensive Rating (ORtg). ORtg and (R)APM are trying to measure different things.
Strictly my own opinion with no description or understanding of stats whatsoever Personally, when Jeremy comes out with the second unit, I don't really want to see a scoring Jeremy. I want to see something different: - I want to see a Jeremy that is getting the other 4 players of his team on the court easy buckets. I want to see balanced, even scoring between all members.... from the other PG / SG to the C. Jeremy personally does not have to score high... he just needs to help his team score high overall with excellent playmaking. - I want to see Jeremy leading the second unit to maintaining and eventually, pulling away leads. I want to see a second unit this talented blowing out other team's second unit consistently (and some of their first unit too, of course). The first unit builds the lead. The second unit maintains, then extends it! THAT'S a second unit to be proud of (and a Jeremy too!). - I want to see Jeremy helping folks like Casspi and Beverley get big fat contracts like he did for Novak and Shumpert. Er.... actually, maybe not... so scratch that. - For Jeremy personally, I want to see his efficiency go up. That means higher field goal percentage, higher 3 pointers percentage and lower turnovers. I also want to see improved decision-making. Much improved decision-making. -Ultimately, I want to see Jeremy Lin taking a step forward (a big one) towards becoming a top 15 point guard in the league. (and then onward to top 10 in the next two seasons) - And if that means he plays only 20 minutes in many games because the starters and second unit (led by him) massacres teams within the first 3 quarters.... I'm absolutely fine with that too
Yes. Been seems this. I would like to see when Lin and Bev together, Lin should be the one handling the ball. Beverley should do the same job like he did with harden.
Anything that makes Lin more effective is fine by me, and if he gets to handle the ball more as a result than McHale is doing the right thing. DD
ORtg is attempting to quantify efficiency -- taking into account shooting accuracy, turnovers, and offensive rebounds -- not actual per-possession or per-minute productivity like RAPM, WP48, PER, WS/48, etc. It is calculated as a ratio of "points created" over "possessions used", multiplied by 100. See the top players last year by ORtg: Code: [B]Rk Player ORtg[/B] 1 Tyson Chandler 133 2 Chris Paul 127 3 LeBron James 125 4 Steve Novak 125 5 Greg Smith 125 6 Jose Calderon 124 7 Nick Collison 123 8 Shane Battier 122 9 Kevin Durant 122 10 Kosta Koufos 122 11 Jimmy Butler 121 12 Thabo Sefolosha 121 13 Kyle Korver 119 14 Brandan Wright 119 15 Tiago Splitter 118 16 Deron Williams 118 17 George Hill 117 18 Serge Ibaka 117 19 Kevin Martin 117 20 Steve Nash 117
Interesting. I would take it even further. I think last year must have been confounding for Lin, because his greatest strength, the thing he is most comfortable doing, is running the show, making the decisions for the team. And that was exactly what the Rockets didn't need him to do. Playing with the second unit, I agree with OP, I have a strong expectation that Lin's RAPM will go up with usage, for that reason. Lin is just going to be more in his element. And it is great that Asik is still here, and the second unit has the potential to be quite seriously good. I think this week can't have been fun for Lin, but I expect him to have a very good year, and have a lot more fun playing than he did last year.
I am confused. Are you actually arguing that increasing efficiency does not increase productivity? That argument makes no sense to me. I would list some examples, but they are obvious.
I'm gonna sound like a trolling Lin fan. But if being the 6th man let him anywhere near his Linsanity condition, he'd be as good as those guys. I am not saying he'd be as good as those guys per se, but as good as them as a 6th man.
Everything you say could be true. Or it could be that RAPM requires a large sample size, and doesn't necessarily work as well for a player who has played 64 career games and 1225 minutes.
1. There are 96 total minutes for the two guard positions. Harden got 38min/game last year and he will probably see similar time, maybe a slight decrease. So that means that the rest of the guards will have to share 58-60 minutes/game. I think Beverley will get about 28, Lin 26, and 4-6 minutes to Brooks, Canaan, and Garcia. Lin got 32min/game last year so regardless of whether he's a starter or not, I think his minutes will go down. 2. If Harden gets 38 minutes, then there's only 10 minutes maximum that Lin could be on court without Harden. He wouldn't even get the full 10 because most likely there's other factors like foul trouble, matchups, etc. So we're looking at maybe 3-4 minutes out of 24 minutes per half with Lin on the court without Harden. I don't think this is enough time for Lin to demonstrate his purpose as a 6th man who can initiate the 2nd team offense.
According to JFriedman:- Houston recorded a microscopic defensive rating of 81.4 while producing an offensive mark of 94.8 when Lin and Beverley played simultaneously
Efficiency do not always correlate with productivity. The latter is about volume. the former is about cost per productivity.
