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Jeremy Lin won't shoot 3pters and it's killing the team.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by James88, Nov 10, 2013.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Definitely agree. I don't know if it is just confirmation bias, but Lin seems to be the most reluctant shooter (i.e. not Howard/Asik) among the rotation. I am not talking about just jacking up shots, but just shooting when they are available.
     
    #61 Joe Joe, Nov 10, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2013
  2. langal

    langal Contributing Member

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    Just last year - everyone here was saying his 3s sucked. Now not enuff 3s is "killing the team"?
     
  3. Sommermärchen

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    I think people just unwillingly or willingly forget that Lin role on this team , he is no the guy to go. Period.

    He is the last to shoot, Our starters have the green light. Can't immagined that what people/fanbase are saying if he starts to take away the shots our superstars suppose to have.

    Last Lakers in 4th period he got blasted from Harden for taking the rushed shot.

    So Op is disillusional in asking Lin to shoot more.
     
  4. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I think the OP kind of has a point, even if it's not that extreme and it's not just Lin. Parsons has been doing it quite a bit early this season (probably because his shooting was cold). Casspi did it some, too. It seems Lin's primary instinct is to drive, and he's pretty good at it, but sometimes you just gotta take what the defense gives you.

    Typical young player mistake, he'll learn.
     
  5. Doppleganger

    Doppleganger Rookie

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    He only played 26 minutes last night. The fact that so many of y'all are still trying to pin the loss on him is incredible.
     
  6. RoxOn RoxOff

    RoxOn RoxOff Member

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    Overreacting
     
  7. Falcao

    Falcao Rookie

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    To the OP -- dude, I seriously like your game and style. Irrefutable and logical argument. You're not saying to take reckless shots, but to see where the actual ceiling or floor are if you are shooting at 40%. Cannot argue with that.

    Plus I like the way you communicate. You're being way too modest when you say that you're even when drunk, you're smarter than McHale. I suspect that even doing heroin and meth, you'd be much smarter than McHale.
     
  8. yummyhawtsauce

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    you do realize, when Jeremy is Open for the 3pnt line, Harden and DH either don't pass to him, or they miss him completely.

    There hasn't been very many moments where Jeremy has given up a clean open 3 pnt shot. So I really have no idea what you are asking, other than asking him to shoot contested 3's.
     
  9. ccrystal99

    ccrystal99 Member

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    I know you love Jeremy, and I do too. Can you please pick a better time to talk about him. The team has other more important issues. If you don't want Jeremy to become a scapegoat again, please stop making threads like this, at least for a while. I beg you, out of my love for Jeremy. I am a die hard Lin fan.
     
  10. TheBigFive

    TheBigFive Member

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    Why is this myth still being parroted? The expected outcome of a play that leads to a turnover can actually be better than a shot. For example, if you make a pass that has a 50 % chance or succeeding, at it would lead to a layup that has a 90% chance is succeeding, the expected outcome of the play would be 2 x 0.5 x 0.9 = .90 points. The expected outcome of turnover would actually be positive, not zero.

    In fact, there are many situations where being agressive driving to the basket has a higher expected outcome than shooting a bad shot.
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. yummyhawtsauce

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    This. Did they pay clutch off through Paypal or Bitcoin or something?
     
  12. shortfuse3

    shortfuse3 Member

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    Jeremy only shoots when he's wide open. He doesn't force shots or create a 3 point shot by himself. And plz don't compare him to Reddick or Ray Allen, those guys are world class shooters. Jeremy's 3 point volume isn't high enough to tell whether he's a great 3 point shooter or not. I'm willing to bet if he increases his volume, his percentage will start to go down.
     
    1 person likes this.
  13. yummyhawtsauce

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    i agree, people's expectations of Lin are absolutely ridiculous.
     
  14. torocan

    torocan Member

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    Sorry, but you're separating the turnover from the actual drive, and you can't do that. That would be like separating a missed shot from the shot attempt.

    I could say a missed shot is one of the worst things that happen, as it's one of the worst things that can happen on a possession as it allows 0% chance of scoring and often helps the other team get easy transition buckets.

    See how silly that sounds?

    A drive is similar to a shot, except that it lasts longer. Of a drive, we can look and say that a percentage end up as turn overs, a percentage end up in passes, a percentage ends up in fouls, and a percentage ends up in baskets.

    So, when deciding whether a player should drive, the decision should ultimately come down to what that player's overall success rate is making a drive (points per possession).

    I understand it's easy to look and say that turnovers are bad, but they're part and parcel of a drive to the basket. It's not different than some shots will be contested, or blocked, or air balled. Should players not shoot because there's a chance they *might* miss? Be blocked? Contested? Or will air ball?

    If the math says that it's better for a player to drive to the basket versus throw up a shot, then I want that player driving whenever they feel they have a good opportunity to do so. No different than wanting a good shooter to throw up a shot.

    Players who drive will have turnovers. It's just how the style of play works.
    Players who shoot will sometimes shoot bad shots. It's just how that style of play works.

    Yes, we want them to reduce them, but we should keep in mind that it's part of the play. Might as well ask Harden to stop driving because he has high turnovers.

    As long as it nets us the most points in the +- column, it shouldn't matter whether a wasted possession is a turnover, blocked shot, missed shot, bad shot, etc. In the end, it all ends up as points on the board somewhere.
     
  15. shortfuse3

    shortfuse3 Member

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    It's kind of like comparing the 3 point shooting of Steve Nash to Ray Allen. Who is the better 3 point shooter? Both have great percentages, but Ray Allen shoots a lot more 3's than Nash. Of course Nash is a great shooter too but if you only take "safe" 3 point shots your percentage will be higher.

    Right now Lin is a "very safe" 3 point shooter.
     
  16. Rudy

    Rudy Member

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    Maybe Harden likes to take Lin's 3's

    lol
     
  17. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    When the go to guy creates space for Lin to take an open three point attempt, Lin's role is to shoot the ball. Period. Semicolon; Exclamation point!

    I think the OP may have been too harsh. There is no way that Lin does not have the green light to shoot open threes which he most likely hits at above 50%. I am not talking about rushed shots.

    Good open looks in basketball are hard to find.
     
  18. PhiSlamma

    PhiSlamma Member

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    How can a person with the third-best Net Rating and third-best Net On Court/Off Court Rating on the team be "killing the team?"

    Does Jeremy Lin have things to keep working on? Of course he does. We saw some of those things last night.

    However, the team has been better with Lin on the court this season than we he has not been on the court. Significantly better. That being the case, I find it hard to buy into an argument that his decisions are mortally wounding the team.

    Lin was not considered to be a "shooter", from my understanding, coming into this season. He was considered to be, however, someone who could get to the rim on drives.

    If his shooting is as improved as it appears to be from three-point range, my guess is it will take him and the team time to adjust to such a development before they and he may start to look for him to take the kinds of plays that people like JJ Reddick might take in terms of three-point shots.

    I don't think anyone looks at Jeremy Lin as JJ Reddick or Steve Novak, and I'm not sure that anyone ever will look at him that way, either. But who knows, maybe that happens.
     
  19. LAC

    LAC Member

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    OP needs to understand that Lin is like Battier. He is not going to take a shot that could hurt his shooting percentage. While Lin's 3-point shooting percentage improved, it is not like he can shoot from everywhere behind the arc. If you saw Lin open at one of the corners, chance is he is going to drive instead of shooting the 3 because he is bad at both corners; he won't risk his shooting percentage just like Battier won't throw up a low percentage half court buzzer beater. These guys are role players and they are smart. They know they can't afford to mess up their shooting percentage or their next contract could be in jeopardy.
     
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  20. Little General

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    Dude I haven't even brought McHale up or his X&O plays. Why are u quoting me when I haven't said anything about McHale?
     

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