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Jeremy Lin won't shoot 3pters and it's killing the team.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by James88, Nov 10, 2013.

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James88 Member

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Lihao said: ↑

anyway ,in your opinion, who will hurt the team more? the one with higher fg% but shoot less or the one with lower fg% but can't stop shooting?
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Well it's not a simple binary comparison. It depends on what those percentages are, how often they shoot, and what all the other options are.

But in Jeremy's case, it's so extreme, it's absurd. Some of the reasons why are:
1) He seems to be a 40% 3pt shooter (these don't grow on trees)
2) He extremely turnover prone
3) He takes an extremely few amount of 3pt attempts

Now if you have Dwight Howard open underneath the hoop, yes you can pass up a 3pt attempt for a Howard dunk. But outside of open dunks and layups, you should pretty much never pass up a 3pt shot if you're a 40% shooter.

However, Jeremy is a good decision maker with a quick step, and he grew up primary as a penetration guy, so I understand it's his instinct to drive first. But he's also turnover prone, so that heavily negates some of his driving strengths.

He also has another strength, which is being a 40% 3pt shooter. Now I don't know how often he should shoot. Someone like Curry should be trying to shoot around 10 threes per 36. But someone like Lin should 100% for sure be shooting at least 5 to 6 per 36. Now if he's shooting 5-6 threes, and his percentage is still 40%+, then he should be pushing it to 7-8, and so on.

But for now, it's MUCH BIGGER mistake for Lin to pass up an open 3, then it is for a 20% 3pt shooter to jack up a 3pter.

Here's a simple breakdown.
Lin shoots a 3. That's 40% times 3pts = 1.2pts
Lin also could turn it over when he doesn't. Let's say he turns it over 20%, so that's about -0.2 pts (1 turnover is about 1 point on average)
So Lin passing up a 3pt attempt is so far giving up about 1.4pts. Now they could still score, which I don't know off the top of my head, but it's probably like 0.7 or 0.8 ppp.
So Lin is giving up around 0.6 or 0.7 points every time.
That's no different than a 20% 3pt shooter shooting. IT'S HORRENDOUS.

He does this like three or four times a game. He's spotting the other team 2 points a game. IT'S DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB.

#41 James88, Nov 10, 2013

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d12babymamas said: ↑

*** damn #newage posters! I'm too old for this ****. Bite me!

With your troll or idiotic logic Javale and Horford should jack up them treys all day, especially Javale since he's shooting 100%.

Have you ever considered that Lin's 3pt % is high cuz he hasn't taken that many?? More than likely as the season progresses, it'll probably drop to the mid 30s. **** ****** **********!!!!
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NAW, I NEVER THOUGHT OF THAT. THANK FOR FOR YOUR BRILLIANT INSIGHT. TAKING OPEN THREES WOULD DEFINITELY LOWER LIN'S 3P%.

#42 James88, Nov 10, 2013
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James88 said: ↑

Judging from how often everyone else shoots, he most likely has the green light. First of all, alot of these shots are already OPEN SHOTS. This isn't even including the ones that he should be shooting with a guy trailing near him. He's simply passing up shots, taking a dribble, then trying to beat the defender. He should be shooting off the dribble, off the pick, quick catch-and-shoots with a defender just off him, look for 3's in transition. I'm not even including those in his game right now. He's simply making the worst decision making for a good 3pt shooter that I've ever seen. IT'S HORRENDOUS.

Yeah, he might've had a bad elbow last game. But how the **** do we actually know that, or know that it'd affect his 3pt attempts. He's been 40% for awhile now, with a good elbow, and still he refuses to shoot.
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I think that's right. I thought he was playing with a lot of confidence to start the season but he was one of the guys to start hanging his head yesterday in the game.

He needs a little more swagger. But I can't imagine he is afraid of shooting open 3s - I have to think it is by design. We see that from Parsons as well, to be fair, not just Jeremy, and a couple of other times with other players.

#43 RoxOn RoxOff, Nov 10, 2013
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James88 said: ↑

Well it's not a simple binary comparison. It depends on what those percentages are, how often they shoot, and what all the other options are.

But in Jeremy's case, it's so extreme, it's absurd. Some of the reasons why are:
1) He seems to be a 40% 3pt shooter (these don't grow on trees)
2) He extremely turnover prone
3) He takes an extremely few amount of 3pt attempts

Now if you have Dwight Howard open underneath the hoop, yes you can pass up a 3pt attempt for a Howard dunk. But outside of open dunks and layups, you should pretty much never pass up a 3pt shot if you're a 40% shooter.

However, Jeremy is a good decision maker with a quick step, and he grew up primary as a penetration guy, so I understand it's his instinct to drive first. But he's also turnover prone, so that heavily negates some of his driving strengths.

He also has another strength, which is being a 40% 3pt shooter. Now I don't know how often he should shoot. Someone like Curry should be trying to shoot around 10 threes per 36. But someone like Lin should 100% for sure be shooting at least 5 to 6 per 36. Now if he's shooting 5-6 threes, and his percentage is still 40%+, then he should be pushing it to 7-8, and so on.

But for now, it's MUCH BIGGER mistake for Lin to pass up an open 3, then it is for a 20% 3pt shooter to jack up a 3pter.

Here's a simple breakdown.
Lin shoots a 3. That's 40% times 3pts = 1.2pts
Lin also could turn it over when he doesn't. Let's say he turns it over 20%, so that's about -0.2 pts (1 turnover is about 1 point on average)
So Lin passing up a 3pt attempt is so far giving up about 1.4pts. Now they could still score, which I don't know off the top of my head, but it's probably like 0.7 or 0.8 ppp.
So Lin is giving up around 0.6 or 0.7 points every time.
That's no different than a 20% 3pt shooter shooting. IT'S HORRENDOUS.

He does this like three or four times a game. He's spotting the other team 2 points a game. IT'S DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB.
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Actually, if you want to get *really* technical, your math is off.

According to NBA.COM player tracking (sportsVu)...

Jeremy Lin
9.7 Drives per game
12.0 Team PPG per drive

Doing the math (Team PPG/Drives) yields...

1.309 Team PPG per drive

IF he's a sustainable 40% 3pt shooter, that yields 40% x 3 = 1.20 points per shot.

So mathematically, even given bad outcomes (Turnovers and missed shots, ie wasted possession), Lin is still better off driving assuming his 3pt shooting is actually sustainable at 40% and his team points per drive are sustainable.

So should Lin be shooting more 3's? No idea, but I'm guessing Morey and co are looking very closely at it.

#44 torocan, Nov 10, 2013
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Here's the link for Drive information from NBA.COM

http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingDrives.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25

#45 torocan, Nov 10, 2013
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torocan said: ↑

Actually, if you want to get *really* technical, your math is off.

According to NBA.COM player tracking (sportsVu)...

Jeremy Lin
9.7 Drives per game
12.0 Team PPG per drive

Doing the math (Team PPG/Drives) yields...

1.309 Team PPG per drive

IF he's a sustainable 40% 3pt shooter, that yields 40% x 3 = 1.20 points per shot.

So mathematically, even given bad outcomes (Turnovers and missed shots, ie wasted possession), Lin is still better off driving assuming his 3pt shooting is actually sustainable at 40% and his team points per drive are sustainable.

So should Lin be shooting more 3's? No idea, but I'm guessing Morey and co are looking very closely at it.
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Good stuff, thanks. You'd have to include his TOs and opponent points on those drives also.

But the key part that isn't picked up in that data, and why isn't doesn't relate well to what I'm talking about is that we'd have to analyze his drives from the initial point of when he's clearly open (eg. no defender without 3ft), which is something that isn't being picked up in those numbers. No doubt, Lin is a very solid player when driving to the hoop. I'm not trying to negate that part of his game. But I think he's strategically making a huge blunder is passing up open 3s.

#46 James88, Nov 10, 2013
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I have a quesiton: How does a guy just joined the forum have rights to post already?

#47 AvgJoe, Nov 10, 2013

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James88 said: ↑

Good stuff, thanks. You'd have to include his TOs and opponent points on those drives also.

But the key part that isn't picked up in that data, and why isn't doesn't relate well to what I'm talking about is that we'd have to analyze his drives from the initial point of when he's clearly open (eg. no defender without 3ft), which is something that isn't being picked up in those numbers. No doubt, Lin is a very solid player when driving to the hoop. I'm not trying to negate that part of his game. But I think he's strategically making a huge blunder is passing up open 3s.
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Actually a TO and a missed shot are essentially the same for the most part (wasted possession). There is some difference in terms of live vs dead TO's, but to get that math right you'd have to break down how many are live TO's vs dead TO's and the types, ala intercepted pass/break away, strip/breakaway, out of bounds, offensive fouls, and travel/palming. Then you'd have to compare relative Points per possession off both (the opposing team is still scoring off missed shots when they get the rebound, ie, %age of available rebounds vs offensive/defensive rebounds on opponent glass).

Either way, my gut would be that the math would be very close even if you assume the Lin is a 40% shooter, and given the sample size of his 3 point shooting (since last year's ASB basically) if you're McHale/Morey, you'd probably want to see a LOT more games of sustained 40% shooting before you tell him to shoot the 3 more given that the efficiency of his driving game is very well established over multiple seasons.

That doesn't mean that we won't see him asked to take more 3's, just that it might not happen for a while even if he has become a sustainable 40% from the 3 point line.

#48 torocan, Nov 10, 2013
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I can see the OP starting a similar thread if Jeremy has a bad game behind the arc.

"Jeremy Lin keeps shooting 3pters and it's killing the team."

#49 Juxtaposed Jolt, Nov 10, 2013

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AvgJoe said: ↑

I have a quesiton: How does a guy just joined the forum have rights to post already?
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Game recognizes game.

#50 James88, Nov 10, 2013
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torocan said: ↑

Actually a TO and a missed shot are essentially the same for the most part (wasted possession). There is some difference in terms of live vs dead TO's, but to get that math right you'd have to break down how many are live TO's vs dead TO's and the types, ala intercepted pass/break away, strip/breakaway, out of bounds, offensive fouls, and travel/palming. Then you'd have to compare relative Points per possession off both (the opposing team is still scoring off missed shots when they get the rebound, ie, %age of available rebounds vs offensive/defensive rebounds on opponent glass).

Either way, my gut would be that the math would be very close even if you assume the Lin is a 40% shooter, and given the sample size of his 3 point shooting (since last year's ASB basically) if you're McHale/Morey, you'd probably want to see a LOT more games of sustained 40% shooting before you tell him to shoot the 3 more given that the efficiency of his driving game is very well established over multiple seasons.

That doesn't mean that we won't see him asked to take more 3's, just that it might not happen for a while even if he has become a sustainable 40% from the 3 point line.
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I pretty much agree with most of this. However, let's remember those Lin drives include alot of obvious drives to the hoop, where he's driving against absent defenders. He's not getting the strong side of the defense nor the focus as often as Harden.

Let's forget the more aggressive 3pt attempts. I think it's pretty clear there are open threes that Lin just passes up, where there isn't a better offensive option at the moment. Given Lin is hitting 40%, he should be taking those. That's one of the best shots you can get in a half court set. You won't find an NBA statistician who disagrees with that.

#51 James88, Nov 10, 2013
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Little General said: ↑

This thread is dumb... Our biggest weakness is not the offense, it's the defense.
And saying that only 1 player is killing the team is stupid. You need to play to the player's strength and we all know that shooting 3's is not Lin's strongest asset. And the drives has been working, you're acting as if most of the drives are fails. Lin is one of the leaders in the leagues with driving in the paint and finishing.
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HES SHOOTING 43%!!!

its not a criticism LOFs. We are saying that Lin is so good he should be scoring more!! And u on the one hand say McHale doesn't run X&O plays, but on the other hand Lin can't shoot unless he has plays RUN for him?

Do any of you play basketball by any chance? U don't have one designated shooter per play smh

#52 NotApollo33, Nov 10, 2013
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Maybe the OP is a little exaggerated in its language, but I don't know why so many posters are freaking out about the question "should Jeremy Lin shoot more 3-pointers?" It is a valid question. There are definitely times I wish Lin would take what the defense gives him and shoot either a 3-pointer or mid-range jumper, rather than driving into 2 or 3 guys in the paint.

#53 Patience, Nov 10, 2013

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Patience said: ↑

Maybe the op is a little exaggerated in its language, but I don't know why so many posters are freaking out about the question "should Jeremy Lin shoot more 3-pointers?" It is a valid question. There are definitely times I wish Lin would take what the defense gives him and shoot either a 3-pointer or mid-range jumper, rather than driving into 2 or 3 guys in the paint.
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Yeah, I was pretty drunk when I first wrote that. I haven't slept from a night out yet. Also, I have a foul mouth that translates into how I type online. Seriously though, I want the best for the Rockets/Jeremy. And he's r****ded for not shooting more.

#54 James88, Nov 10, 2013
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Patience said: ↑

Maybe the OP is a little exaggerated in its language, but I don't know why so many posters are freaking out about the question "should Jeremy Lin shoot more 3-pointers?" It is a valid question. There are definitely times I wish Lin would take what the defense gives him and shoot either a 3-pointer or mid-range jumper, rather than driving into 2 or 3 guys in the paint.
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We need patience, that's it, no doubt. JLin7 has only recently become a very good 3 pt shooter in this league, it takes time for him to get comfortable and shoot a very high percentage. All we need, is just a little patience, truly.

#55 TJ VS TR, Nov 10, 2013
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tomato123 said: ↑

you want him to shoot 3. you got to make plays and set him up. mchale isnt doing that for him.
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It's that bad for Lin huh? He needs a coach to baby him and set everything up for his own comfort versus sucking it up and playing like a man... boy boy boy...

#56 Cstyle42, Nov 10, 2013
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Agree. Jeremy should take more shots. Even Beverly gets many more shots than him. Perfecting his mid-jump shot and 3pters would save his career.

#57 nchan, Nov 10, 2013
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el gnomo said: ↑

JaVale McGee, Andre Drummond, Al Horford, and Meyers Leonard won't shoot more 3pters and it's killing their teams.
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This is your come back argument???

#58 coachbadlee, Nov 10, 2013

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Cstyle42 said: ↑

It's that bad for Lin huh? He needs a coach to baby him and set everything up for his own comfort versus sucking it up and playing like a man... boy boy boy...
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Agreed, he just needs a coach that puts the ball in his hand and get out of the way.

#59 TJ VS TR, Nov 10, 2013
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torocan said: ↑

Actually a TO and a missed shot are essentially the same for the most part (wasted possession).
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That is not really true at all. Taking a shot, even a lower percentage one, carries with it some chance of making the shot. So, even if Jeremy Lin were only a 30% three point shooter, that means he would score 9 points for every 10 shots he took. And on top of that, there is a chance for an offensive rebound for the misses. Since we have Howard, Asik, and Beverley on the team, I would guess that our offensive rebound rate is relatively good.

A turnover (especially a live ball turnover) is the worst thing that can happen on a possession, because it allows 0% chance of scoring, and often helps the other team get easy transition baskets.

#60 Patience, Nov 10, 2013

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