http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0809.htm We are now 3-0 and win at least by 10 per game, but we only rank 15 among all teams. Although our schedule is relatively easy (rank 27 in schedule difficulty), I believe we should rank much higher. I used to trust the Jeff Sagarin NBA ratings in previous seasons, now I start losing confidence when I find GSW rank 3 when they are 1-2. Anybody has the same feeling as me?
Eh, it's only 3 games into the season and supposedly the mavs arent a Top 10 team so we've only beaten scrubs. *shurgs* We'll show that system! These next couple of games will rocket us to the top (pun intended haha) if we decide you know to go 10-0 hahaha! Celtics, Blazers, Clippers, Lakers, Suns, Spurs, Hornets Yeah we got this.
a piece of advice before i go to bed - don't read into any ratings - unless you want to waste your time and emotions. the only rating that matters in the end is the championship. that, is a nearly universal rating.
dont pay too much attention to that, its not like ESPN's power rankings or anything, its more mathematical, which means you need more numbers to get a good average for each team. Right now having one bad game or getting really lucky one game counts a lot since its out of 3 only, so it messes up the equation he's using.
Wtf...look at the teams in the divisions... 6 SOUTHWEST (west) = 88.04 88.43 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2008-2009 through games of 2008 November 1 Saturday HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.00 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 1 New Orleans Hornets = 100.87 3 0 95.94( 3) 3 0 | 3 0 | 101.96 1 | 100.14 1 15 Houston Rockets = 90.35 3 0 85.01( 27) 0 0 | 0 0 | 92.16 11 | 88.64 19 22 Memphis Grizzlies = 86.97 1 2 90.14( 15) 0 0 | 0 2 | 88.01 19 | 85.86 24 25 Dallas Mavericks = 85.89 1 1 86.11( 25) 0 0 | 0 1 | 87.23 23 | 84.29 27 30 Sacramento Kings = 78.06 0 3 87.74( 22) 0 0 | 0 0 | 77.07 30 | 78.79 30 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 NORTHWEST (west) = 88.27 88.10 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2008-2009 through games of 2008 November 1 Saturday HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.00 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 9 Phoenix Suns = 93.18 2 1 91.54( 11) 0 1 | 1 1 | 93.75 8 | 92.69 10 19 Utah Jazz = 89.01 2 0 80.86( 29) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.04 15 | 87.98 21 20 San Antonio Spurs = 88.45 0 2 91.23( 12) 0 1 | 0 2 | 87.08 24 | 89.78 17 21 Denver Nuggets = 88.00 1 2 89.87( 16) 0 1 | 0 1 | 87.70 20 | 88.33 20 28 Minnesota Timberwolves = 81.87 1 1 77.98( 30) 0 0 | 0 0 | 83.27 27 | 79.57 29 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 PACIFIC (west) = 91.07 90.71 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 NBA 2008-2009 through games of 2008 November 1 Saturday HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.00 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR 3 Golden State Warriors = 96.72 1 2 98.34( 1) 1 2 | 1 2 | 95.82 4 | 97.92 2 6 Los Angeles Lakers = 94.88 3 0 87.66( 24) 0 0 | 1 0 | 94.15 7 | 95.77 4 13 Philadelphia 76ers = 90.95 1 2 90.89( 13) 0 1 | 0 2 | 89.86 16 | 92.13 12 16 Portland Trail Blazers = 89.28 1 2 93.50( 6) 0 2 | 0 2 | 89.47 17 | 89.14 18 29 Los Angeles Clippers = 81.71 0 3 89.30( 19) 0 1 | 0 1 | 82.72 28 | 80.35 How did they get so many teams in the wrong division?
Paul scares me, but not so much B. Davis. Garnett scares me. Kobe and Gasol scare me. I'm really looking forward to Ron vs. Pierce (i'm pretty sure that will be the matchup) and Ron vs. Kobe (T-Mac defends Ariza/Odom i'd wager). I'm NOT looking forward to Garnett/Gasol vs. anyone on our team and Paul vs. Alston. Paul vs. Brooks will be fun to watch for a little, then it will get sad. The measuring sticks: Hornets, Lakers, Celtics. We play all 3 of them within the next 7 games. That's too early, actually. We aren't 100% healthy plus none of the teams (us included, of course) are in mid-season form. So any result, good or bad, will not be a completely accurate indicator of true ability. Through our first 10 games, finishing 7-3 would be pretty good, 8-2 would be simply amazing.
Did this schedule take into account that we were back to back, with the second against the Mavs? I bet not, nor can the effects of back to back be measured as well. Stats are so overrated it's not funny.
What irks me isn't the current ranking, it's the prediction stuff. How can you make a prediction now when it's only been 3 games. Cut that crap off and save it for like a quarter or half way into the season.
who cares about the rankings, does that get us to a BCS championship or something? Maybe they're judging on the schedule, maybe they look at past playoff failures and are tentative to give the Rockets too much credit. So what. NBA rankings do not lend prestige, Championships do.
Why bother? The values will converge to something that makes sense in a month or so. Just wait till then. I mean, should ESPN cut off their standings page because the records of the teams don't reflect our good they are right now?
Yeah, the division data like Sagarin smoking pots __________________ Rockets "Deadly Team" should be: Big 4 (T-Mac, Yao, Ron, Scola "underrated International Superstar"), 2 Great Defenders (Battier, Hayes), 2 Rising Rookie Stars (Landry, Brooks), 3 Good 3pts shooter (Barry, Alston, Head) and 1 "Sleepy 4ever" Allstar player(Francis)
