Since 37 years ago. Didn't guarantee it. But it puts the odds very, very low. If the Rockets win a championship this season they will be defying 37 years of data and redefining championship team criteria our they will have simply fell into a bucket of luck much, much bigger than our 95 championship team had. We're not comparing data fun the start of the NBA. Just the last 37 years with an increased emphasis on the most recent seasons. Trade stocks? Yes, I've traded stocks. About 20 years ago. I currently trade futures after becoming bored with both stocks and options. Still manage my own retirement portfolio though and I write calls and buy puts to enhance my portfolio return. But it's not my day to day focus. The NBA is not the market. Although there are unknowns that could be comparables, such as LeBron blowing out a knew on the same day the Warriors team plane crashes. Or perhaps, Kawhi plays a whole series with a broken wrist that's kept a secret until the Spurs lose. Or even something as crazy as trading for Clyde Drexler with around 25 games left where it's too late to impact data sets significantly but the team essentially becomes a different team. Yeah all sorts of crazy stuff could happen. Most of the time it doesn't. But when it does it usually results in a data outlier. Houston has virtually no chance of winning this year because Harden isn't mature enough to want to win at any and all costs. Harden wants to win a championship but he's unwilling to attempt to win a championship in any fashion besides playing like he wants to play, without doing any defensive dirty work, and without saying playmaking futures with another great playmaker. The reason there is no other great playmaker on our roster is a direct result of Hardens unwillingness to broaden his game and pay off the ball for significant periods of the game when the defense ratchets up to grind him down. Hardens high turnover count is a direct reflection of his stubbornness and singular viewpoint of the game. Harden wants to win a championship all by himself, surrounded with all role players doing his bidding. I can only hope he's that great. Because what I see on the court and in the days says it ain't happening.
You speak both sides of your mouth here. Your first point is no one key but a set of keys to a championship then you go ahead elaborate why turnovers should be the deciding factor wtf. If there are multiple keys that means one thing should not be the deciding factor being winning or not winning, and in this case TOs shouldn't be the deciding factor because they are too few. Rockets turnover around 10% of their own possessions, that impact is too low when compared to other stats like I already said before tos should be rank 8 or something in priority. And again you ignore how despite Harden averaging 5.8 tos the team as a whole does not have a turnover problem. Btw whats the difference between 4 tos and 3 tos? Oh yeah, 1 TO. You keep making it sound like Harden is getting 100 tos a game, the reality is he is getting just 1-2 more than your 37 years of history. Thats not a big outlier at all.
Turnovers in proper proportion is one of the keys. If they are out of range it is one key that causes teams to fall short of championship capability. Those turnovers have to be made up somewhere else, in defense and three pointers. It's not there. Believe what you want. You have done between zero to virtually zero research on championship team data. Yet you like to criticize what I've done. And then you think I'm arrogant. You remind me of the dope smoker in college that never studies and tries to piggy back whatever other students are kind enough to help him out. Then when they set the curve on the test he gets mad and cusses them and calls them derogatory names for setting the curve too high for him to pass. Enjoy basketball 101 again next fall semester.
It's just his style of play. He makes risky passes and dares defenders to reach and strip the ball from him. Combine that with an incredibly high usage rate, and you have a player who is about to obliterate the record for turnovers in a season. Harden is a GREAT offensive player, but his tricks may not work in the playoffs against veteran teams and where refs usually permit more physical defense. That is reason for concern, not to mention the Ol'e defense. That isn't to say that he is hurting us. His gambling style may very well give us the best chance of winning. I just think we should temper expectations, because the way he plays (IMO) doesn't translate that well to playoff basketball.
Harden's crossover has gotten picked 2 (3?) times so far this game. Also, we're talkin' bout stocks? Stocks? Historical trends are a good predictor of future success in repetitive events with similar conditions - like basketball. We can use the stock analogy when stocks play head-to-head matchups with other stocks under controlled conditions. Nothing is ever guaranteed, no need for that to be a requirement in a discussion.
How is the playoffs in 2017 the same as 2016? The rosters they will face are different, the coach is different, Harden is at a different in his career and his teammates are also vastly different from last year. How is that a repetitive event? If you can use stats like "If your franchise player averages more than 4.1 turnovers you won't win a ring" no matter what then whats the point of even watching the playoffs then?
It's not that his game doesn't translate into the playoffs, it's that he is outgunned in the playoffs. If Harden had KD and LMA on his team you think his game won't translate in the playoffs? Instead he has Ariza and Ryan Anderson out there that's the issue, not his turnovers.
Harden has a turnover problem. I just watched him turn the ball over 4 times in a row. 3 of them unforced
But that's the thing, the Rockets aren't out of range when it comes to turnovers. You say Harden has turnovers out of range but the Rockets are just average in turnovers. Why do the Rockets need to make up for their turnovers when their turnovers are the same as the opponent? Of course I will criticize what you've done, you say Harden has 40% higher turnover than any other championship player but fail to say why that should be a concern when the Rockets turnovers is the same as other championship teams. This is like the 4rth time I've said the Rockets are average in turnovers but you keep glossing over that because that doesn't fit the narrative you keep spinning.
Harden thrives in open floor basketball with little ball pressure and friendly whistles. Of course, I can say the same for any offensive player, but Harden especially.
Stop defending this BS. Harden is a great player, but he needs to cut down on the stupid turnovers. 3 straight dumb turnovers in the 3Q and we lost by 2 points. C'mon, no excuses.
It is not so much the number as the timing and type of them, he is so careless with the ball at inappropriate times, he makes stupid passes that make you scratch your head.....he is trying to hard for the flash and sometimes you need to be fundamentally solid. Love Harden but he still has some growing to do as a leader and gaining an understanding of how champions play. DD
I do hate him. and I can't even put this all on him tonight. He was just outdone by a better player/team.
