ISOLATION SCORING, Statistical analysis of LIN vs HARDEN and the top 50 scorers ISO rankings

I disagree, I think it was solely bc of parsons missing bc we won other games minus lin plus parsons and they were against better teams. If it was bc of both players then that would not have been the case

also I actually think parsons is not as effective with lin. When lin is not there the playmaking and scoring opps go to parsons (esp when harden is not there) but when lin is playing parsons is less of a facilitator and more of a recipient

 

stats obviously can be misleading .. for example harden and lin play majority of lins minutes together and remaining of lins minutes are with the second unit where he is either being guarded by a back up or the team is missing their best big man (bc he is on the bench) or both......

clearly when harden and lin play together harden is being guarded by that teams best defender and the defense is shaded towards him more than lin...this makes lin a more efficient iso play player bc one he is not being guarded by the other teams best defender and two bc defense has less of a focus on him. So that boosts his stats more

 

people are truely obsessed with Jeremy Lin on this forum. He always has to be compared to the guys getting more playing time than him it seems. Only on GARM

 

The one thing that fans do not understand is that the coaches know best. Especially with Morey looming behind them with all of his SportsVU data. Questioning coaching decisions about playing time is completely counter productive. One NBA assistant coach knows more about basketball than all of the GARM put together. If more people asked why the coaching staff made a certain decision CF would be a better place.

For example why is Bev starting over Lin?

1) The Rockets do not need Lin's scoring with the starting lineup.
2) The Rockets need an incredibly quick on the ball defender in the starting lineup to match up against the Lillards and Currys of the league.
3) The Rockets starting lineup is currently at the point of being shot starved.
4) Lin is by far and away the best backup shooting guard on the roster.
5) Bench production is very important in the NBA.

 

Doesn't matter. Both Lin and Parsons are on the way out.

Harden is the core. The PG and SF positions have to fit with Harden's style of playing.

Lin can't fit with the $8mil salary.

Parsons does not defend well enough to save Harden.

So both of them will be eventually out.

 

LOL. You are joking. Right?

 

Parsons ain't on his was out lol.

 

I agree that strategic coaching decisions, like starting Bev over Lin, are the ones the coaches are most likely to have good supporting data and knowledge for. Fans arguing over those decisions will at the very least have less data than the coaches do.

However, for tactical decisions like playing time in the actual course of a game, there are clearly cases where coaches screw up. This is not suprising, as these are the decisions where they have the least time and data available to back them up.

 

When you evaluate business decisions, you can't attach your emotion to any players.

Search for my post, 10 years ago, I predicted that Yao won't play after 30 years old.

 

What exactly is the business decision that makes you believe Parsons is on his way out?

 

Interesting stats. Thanks.

Just a quick note it is Eric Bledsoe instead of Eric Gordon based from your chart there

 

The obvious reasons would be...

1) He's a highly undervalued contract, which makes him a top tier sweetener for an All star caliber player.
2) Parsons is an expiring next year, which means he's going to be getting paid. Parsons is a steal at $926k. At $8m-$12M? Not so much.

Parsons is a bargain for the next 18 months. If the right deal comes along, I wouldn't be shocked if Morey trades him at all versus risking having to match a very expensive contract if the right trade presents itself.

Parsons is a very good role player, but so far he's not an All Star caliber player that you'd bet your entire future on.

 

whoaaaa. i like your evaluations for the most part, but wrong on parsons. he is the type that will get Batum money. He is the most important player on this team. Anyone else goes down, it's meh, we will survive. but Parsons..god forbid..we're in trouble.

 

I agree that Parsons is an integral part of the team, but are we sure that we couldn't get a replacement player that can serve his role at the 3? My point is simply that if you can get a player like LMA, Love, etc and Parsons is needed to make the trade work then Morey will figure out how to find a player that can cover his role.

Parsons' skill set is not easily replaceable, but it IS replaceable.

Basically if Parsons goes, then it's because there's a big enough fish to make the trade worthwhile. And it's not going to take Durant or Lebron for Morey to trade him.

 

I agree and the small forward position is one of the most replaceable in the NBA... Very deep position and will be even deeper after this coming draft.

 

And why don't you think that the coaches have graphs of their players production depending on their minutes played in each game? For the last game, the last month, the last season and their entire career. Do you think Morey is stupid?

 

uh no. lin comes in for Beverly and after a little bit harden goes out and then Beverly comes back in. they basically have a 3 guard rotation unless the need is to play Garcia as harden's backup due to bigger SG.

the same thing you mention regarding playing against "backups" can be used the other way around. part of the analysis is not just scoring but team points. if lin is playing with the 2nd team, then he's passing to casspi, Garcia, and the second team players on the court.

people are so pro-Harden / pro-Lin / pro-Beverly that they forget that you want overlap. you don't want Harden to be your only player that can create on ISO. but if you keep Lin you have to merry the two together so that they can play together. if the offense is tilted towards Harden and his ISO, that means Lin is a spot up shooter and vice versa. so you have to allow both to share the ball. because in the end, it makes the team better and makes you a better player. to me playing bev starter PG minutes for "defense" or "fit" means that the coaching staff has failed to implement an offense that takes the best from both harden and lin. but in the end, I think it was just that the rockets have three guards and they want one "playmaker" in at all times and that's why they moved lin to the bench. the problem is that when lin is in with Beverly, lin still doesn't have the reins to command the offense. I think the coaching staff is trying to make Beverly an overall PG and lin the backup 1/2. now you've got lin playing out of position and he's got to figure out what to do when he's in as the PG and when he's in as the SG, who's guarding him etc.

plus harden isn't guarded by the team's "best" defender, he's guarded by the team's best WING defender. if lin is playing PG, then he's guarded by the team's PG and some PGs are very good defenders.

 

no. you don't know jack about basketball. lin's salary isn't an issue. how does Dwight "fit" harden's playing style? Dwight demanding the ball takes it away from harden doesn't it??? so shouldn't we move Dwight for Tyson chandler then? why does ONLY the PG and SF position have to fit with harden? Parsons does not defend well enough to "save" harden? you mean harden is a defensive liability? of does parson have to do more than he needs to so that harden can do just what he wants?

wow, imaging a lineup of chandler, a wing defender like shumpert, or spot up three point shooters like novak, and harden. oh wait, that's like NY during linsanity. it can work for a while and lin already showed that it can but if they shut down harden, oops. when NY played Miami, guess what, all they did was concentrate on shutting down lin and what do you have left?

 

When synergy wins a ring,wake me up.